#BREXIT - The Political Disconnect

It’s done.

Last Thursday, the United Kingdom voted on a referendum that resulted in the UK determining that it would leave the European Union. After a 40-year membership, the United Kingdom finally decided that it would be better off without remaining economically tied to the rest of Europe. To say the aftershocks were a “bump in the road” is an understatement. The pound fell 10%, the lowest it’s been in 30 years, and stock markets around the world plummeted. While many hope that this is simply the short-term ramification of "sailing into uncharted waters", the political consequences of this decision will have a global impact.

While the UK leaving the EU is a historic and shocking event, the political precedence that it sets is one of even greater concern. In the months leading up to the final vote, polls showed that the difference between YES and NO was slim, constantly switching back and forth. However, within the final few weeks, while the polls were close, many did not expect the referendum to actually pass – a look at any betting market prior to the vote, as well as the polls indicated as much. Yet, the final result was not only one that was unexpected, but one that wasn’t even close.

Leave wins decisive victory, by 3% and 1 million more votes (Source: The Telegraph)

While the Brexit vote ended in victory for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the true victory is for populist politics. The Brexit movement was led by UKIP, a right wing political party of the United Kingdom, known for its populist positions and appeal. While UKIP has gained significant power within the last decade, populist politics was still seen as highly unlikely to have any concrete influence. Until now.

Populism Rising 

With the success of UKIP, the decision to leave the EU has set a new precedent for populist politics. One of the primary reasons for Brexit’s victory was voter sentiment that they were being taken advantage of and financially manipulated. Areas that voted in favor of the exit were those heavily impacted by direct foreign trade. The sense of disenfranchisement is the perfect target for populist politics, one that appeals to the masses and states what people want to hear.

This feeling of a “rigged system” and a feeling of fundamental unfairness has become apparent not just in the United Kingdom, but across the world. This year, populist candidate Rodrigo Duterte won the Philippine Presidential Election; last year in France, the National Front showed surprisingly strong signs in early elections; oh, and let’s not forget about Donald Trump, the GOP Nominee for the President of the United States.

Populism has become the center of a new generation of politics around the world. We are entering an era of anti-status quo sentiment, spear-headed by policies that play much more towards fear than they do hope. This rise of global populism can be attributed to many things, but a fundamental contributor of the new era of politics is social media. Populist candidates appeal to large populations with short, concise messages that reduce explanation and focus on buzz, controversial, and trending topics. These same three words could be used to describe a day on any social media site. The rise of media has not only made it more easy to communicate, but has allowed populist messages and campaigns to spread in ways not possible 20 years ago.

While many believe that the populist movement is the response of millennials in politics, the reality is that populism appeals to all age demographics. The results of the Brexit vote clearly display a political disconnect that has grown between millennials and Baby Boomers.

Millennials overwhelmingly voted to Remain, Baby Boomers voted the complete opposite (Source: YouGov)

In this instance, the populist movement appealed directly to the older population, one that mirrors a core constituency of Presidential Nominee Donald Trump. However, fellow candidate Bernie Sanders was propelled forward with a populist messaged spearheaded by younger voters. Populism appeals to all generations, yet the consequences often affect those with more to lose.

Final Thoughts 

The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union will create a period of economic uncertainty that will only get worse before it can get better. However, while there exists the chance that the UK economy will recover and rebound, the political consequences will be much more long lasting. Not only has the result given rise to a possible second referendum for Scottish Independence, but has also ignited discussions of creating a unified Ireland. On top of the problems within the UK, the global political precedence is enormous.

Prior to this vote, many still considered the rising populist movements around the world to be pipe dreams with little chance of actual success. Now that one of the most powerful nations on the planet has displayed the fervor and simplicity of a vote with such enormous consequence, prior notions of disbelief will slowly be replaced by cautious anxiety.

Populist policies can win. Populist candidates can win. And no one knows how to stop it. Social media has given rise to an era of rapid communication – a giant microphone to amplify any message or policy. What was seen as yesterday’s fantasy is tomorrow’s reality.

So prepare yourself.

The die has been cast.

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Erwen (Alex) Zhu is an intended Business Major at the University of California Berkeley and writes as a millennial voice for marketing, social media, entertainment, politics, and cultural impact.

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