Brexit Made Simple – Issue One, THE IRISH BACKSTOP

What is the issue?

Maintaining an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after Brexit is the stated aim of both the UK Government and the European Union.   

It is a key component of the Withdrawal Agreement, finalised between former UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU but rejected three times by the House of Commons.

Its purpose is to ensure there are no checks or physical barriers at the Irish border whilst a new trading arrangement between London and Brussels is agreed.

Under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK would enter a “transition” phase following its departure from the EU.

During this period – which would last until December 2020 unless a UK-EU trade deal is agreed before then – the UK would remain in the EU Single Market and Customs Union as at present.  

Should no agreement be reached before the cut-off date, the backstop would kick in.

This would place the UK into a “Single Customs Territory” which would be tariff-free and most EU trade restrictions would be removed.

However, given that the border in Ireland would be the UK’s only land border with the EU and to protect the integrity of the Single Market, Northern Ireland would be required to follow additional EU rules and regulations. There would also be some checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK. 

The backstop would not apply if the UK leaves the EU with no-deal on 31 October 2019 and a physical – or “hard” - border would have to be erected. 

This could have profound consequences for the Northern Ireland peace process itself.

In what way?

 It was hoped that the Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998, would finally bring the Northern Ireland’s “Troubles” to an end. They began in 1969 and claimed the lives of more than 3,600 people with a further 30,000 being injured, mainly at the hands of paramilitary groups including the Provisional IRA.

The root cause was the ancient dispute between Nationalists or Republicans (mainly Catholics) who believe Northern Ireland should join with the Republic to form a united Ireland; and Unionists or Loyalists (mainly Protestants) who believe Northern Ireland should stay as part of the United Kingdom – or Union – with England, Scotland and Wales.

A key component of the Good Friday Agreement was the “normalisation” of relations between Protestant and Catholic communities within Northern Ireland and across the border with the Republic. This included removing border security checks.   

Both the UK and EU agreed in advance of the Brexit negotiations that keeping the border open was vitally important, even if future trade negotiations were to fail. This was why Theresa May accepted the inclusion of the Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.     

Why is the backstop so controversial? 

Pro-Brexit MPs argue that the backstop would be deliberately used by Brussels to trap the UK in the EU Customs Union for a prolonged period, thereby preventing the UK Government from agreeing trade deals with other countries.

This is strongly denied by all other EU member states.   

Many Brexiteer MPs initially said that the backstop would be acceptable if it had a strict time limit attached or if the UK had the legal right to end the arrangement at a time of its own choosing.

The EU has refused to agree to either method of exit.

Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whose 10 MPs keep Boris Johnson’s minority Conservative Government in power, also opposes the backstop.

It fears that any differences in regulatory requirements or checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain could threaten Northern Ireland’s place in the Union.  

Is everyone in Northern Ireland opposed to the backstop?

No, far from it. 

Business and agricultural groups – including the Ulster Farmers’ Union – believe the backstop is necessary for guaranteeing unfettered cross-border trade. 

All non-Unionist political parties – including the cross-community Alliance Party which won one of Northern Ireland’s three seats in the recent European Parliamentary elections – also support the backstop as a means of keeping the border open.

What has Boris Johnson said?

He anchored his Conservative leadership campaign on a promise to “get rid” of the backstop and continues to argue that a no-deal Brexit is better for the UK than accepting the backstop.

Johnson’s unequivocal stance has toughened the position of Tory Brexiteers whose votes installed him as Prime Minister. Most have now joined him in insisting that the backstop must not be part of any Brexit deal with the EU, replacing their previous insistence on a time-limit or unilateral exit clause.

His dependence on their support has also restricted Johnson’s ability to compromise with the EU.

Does a technological alternative to the backstop exist to avoid border checks?   

No, it’s another Brexiteer “unicorn” and Boris Johnson is well aware of this.

Has the EU’s altered its position since Johnson became Prime Minister?

No. The EU27 are adamant that the integrity of the EU Single Market will be protected after Brexit and insist that they will not abandon the Republic of Ireland in any circumstances. 

Their collective view is that if the UK chooses a no-deal Brexit over the backstop, then so be it. EU checks will be carried out on the Irish border.  

What might happen next?

That will probably depend on what happens in the House of Commons. If Boris Johnson refuses to compromise and the EU maintains its pledge to retain the backstop in any Brexit agreement, it will be down to UK MPs to block a no-deal Brexit before 31 October 2019. 

If they fail, the cold reality is that no one actually knows what happens next.   

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

20 August 2019

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss