Brexit Made Simple – Issue 31, EXTENDING THE POST-BREXIT TRANSITION PHASE

What is the issue?

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, a succession of UK Government Ministers including Boris Johnson continue to insist that no extension to the post-Brexit transition phase will be sought.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “The transition period ends on December 31, 2020.  That is enshrined in UK law.”  

Can’t the law be changed?

Yes, very easily.  Under the terms of the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (the one which placed a border in the middle of the Irish Sea despite Boris Johnson promising that this would never happen), the UK can ask for an extension of up to two years.  That remains the case.

Why does the UK Government stick to their approach?

Because Team Johnson doesn’t know what else to do.

As a condition for becoming Conservative candidates at last year’s General Election, all Tory MPs signed up to a commitment to take the UK out of the EU on 31 January 2020 and end the transition period on 31 December 2020.  Johnson is scared he’ll look weak if he relents. He’s even more scared of Dominic Cummings, his de-facto Chief of Staff, who is still determined to drive the country off a cliff at the end of the year.   

But haven’t the UK-EU trade talks been suspended because of coronavirus?

They have. 

EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier was diagnosed with coronavirus and is still recuperating.

David Frost, his British counterpart, is also self-isolating after showing symptoms.

Hold on, hasn’t Boris Johnson himself been diagnosed?

He tested positive on Friday and is locked up alone in his Downing Street flat. 

Dominic Cummings is also self-isolating (but still running the country from his kitchen).

Right. And yet they still argue that we can remove the EU safety net on 31 December?

That’s right.

Who is officially in charge of Brexit until Johnson recovers?

Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office Minister and hardline Brexiteer, thinks he is.

Not for the first time.

Indeed.  He led for the UK in a video call yesterday with European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic.  

Did anything of interest happen?

Not that we know of.

Is that a surprise?

No. It was all for show. 

What are the EU27 saying?   

Officially, not a lot. The coronavirus is rightly dominating the thoughts of our EU friends rather the Brexit.

But other relevant parties are having their say.

Such as?    

Yesterday, the European People’s Party – the largest group of MEPs in the European Parliament - said that extending the Brexit transition deadline was the “only responsible thing to do.”    

Isn’t the EPP fairly right-wing?

It is. UK Conservative MEPs used to be members.

Has anyone else spoken out?

Lots of people, but I’ll just mention two. 

German MEP David McAllister, the European Parliament’s UK Trade Co-ordinator, said yesterday: “The coronavirus pandemic complicates the already very ambitious schedule. The EU has always been open to extending the transition period.  The ball is now clearly in the British court. The United Kingdom would have to submit an official request.  So far, the UK Government has constantly rejected such an option.  Under the current circumstances, London should carefully re-examine a prolongation."

Christophe Hansen, an MEP from Luxembourg and a negotiator on the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, said: “Under these extraordinary circumstances, I cannot see how the UK Government would choose to expose itself to the double whammy of the coronavirus and the exit from the EU Single Market, which will inevitably add to the disruption, deal or no deal.  I can only hope that common sense and substance will prevail over ideology. An extension of the transition period is the only responsible thing to do.”

Any response from the UK?

Nothing that resembles common sense.  

Boris Johnson’s spokesman was wheeled out again yesterday to say: “We have shared legal texts and they are the subject of informal discussions between ourselves and the European Commission. They are conversations that are taking place via telephone as both sides analyse each other’s respective legal texts. We’d expect those types of conversations to be carrying on this week.”

What happens next?

We must await that common sense. Lots of senior UK civil servants, who had been involved in planning the EU trade talks, have been reassigned to deal with coronavirus.  The Whitehall machinery is simply not in place.

Plus, even some of Boris Johnson’s biggest supporters in the right-wing media, are beginning to hint that they will lay off the criticism if he does take the sensible option of extending the transition deadline.  An economic shock is surely coming our way once the coronavirus crisis has been dealt with.  Does he really want to exacerbate this when the UK chooses to leave the EU Single Market and Customs Union at the end of December? 

Logic would say not. But this is Boris Johnson.     

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

31 March 2020

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss