Brexit Made Simple – Issue 20, PROPOSED UK POINTS-BASED IMMIGRATION SYSTEM

What is the issue?

The Conservative Party’s 2019 General Election manifesto committed Boris Johnson’s Government to the introduction of a “firmer and fairer Australian-style points-based immigration system.”

More details of what Ministers have in mind were set out in a “policy statement” which was published last week.

It has since attracted widespread criticism, particularly from employers who now fear they will not be able to attract sufficient numbers of staff, particularly in lower-skilled occupations. 

The performance of UK Home Secretary Priti Patel - who has lead responsibility for delivering the changes – in a series of accompanying media interviews was also deemed by many observers to be poor and unhelpful to the Government’s case.

How will the new system work?

From 1 January 2021, when free movement is due to end, migrants will need to score a minimum of 70 points to be able to work in the UK.

An ability to speak English is required (although there is no detail on how this will be assessed) and will earn 10 points.

A job offer from an “approved sponsor” is worth 20 points, and that job being at a qualification grade of A-level or above earns a further 20 points.

The Government has accepted the Migration Advisory Committee’s recommendation that the general salary threshold should be lowered from ￡30,000 to ￡25,600. A job offer at this pay rate or above earns another 20 points, although employees taking up a position in area where there are staff shortages - such as nursing - also earns 20 points if it comes with a salary of at least ￡20,480.

Overseas workers can also come here with a job offer at ￡20,480 or above if they have a PhD relevant to the job, which is worth 10 points, or in a STEM subject (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), which counts as 20 points.

What about lower-skilled workers?

The Government’s plans offer no specific route for lower-skilled migrants to live and work in the UK after the post-Brexit transition period ends on 31 December 2020. This means that an estimated around 70% of the existing EU workforce in the UK would be unable to come here from next year.

What about EU workers already here?  

The more than 3 million EU citizens currently living in the UK, or those who arrive by 31 December 2020, will not be subject to the new rules.

However, they will have to apply to the EU Settlement Scheme by 30 June 2021 to be given either settled or pre-settled status.

What have employers said about the Government’s plans?

The general reaction has been one of grave concern.

Carolyn Fairbairn, Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), warned that employers in the social care, construction, hospitality, food and drink sectors would be severely impacted. She said: “In some sectors, firms will be left wondering how they will recruit the people needed to run their businesses. Firms know that hiring from overseas and investing in the skills of their workforce and new technologies is not an ‘either or’ choice — both are needed to drive the economy forward.”

British Veterinary Association (BVA) President Daniella Dos Santos rightly highlighted that the UK veterinary profession is hugely reliant on overseas vets to deliver animal health and welfare, safeguard public health, and ensure the UK can trade animals and animal products. She said: “The Government’s blueprint for trade will require a massive boost to the veterinary workforce to deliver veterinary certification not only for exports, but also for imports. This new immigration system leaves a big question mark over whether we’ll be able to fill the workforce gap created by the end of free movement when we are already struggling to recruit and retain vets.”

Minette Batters, President of the National Farmers’ Union, raised widely-held fears that  access to lower-skilled overseas workers would “severely impact the farming sector.” She continued: “We have said repeatedly that for farm businesses it is about having the full range of skills needed - from pickers and packers to meat processors and vets - if we are to continue to deliver high quality, affordable food for the public.”

What did Priti Patel have to say?

Other than rolling out tired Brexiteer lines about “taking back control of our borders,” she claimed that staff shortages could be filled by “8.45 million people in the UK aged between 16 and 64 who are economically inactive."

Did she have a point?

No.  As per usual with this Government, she was spreading misinformation.  

?According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27% of this 8.45 million are students, 26% are carers of children or elderly relatives, 22% are long-term sick and 13% are retired.  In reality, less than 50,000 of the 8.45 million describe themselves as “discouraged workers.” 

With the UK now close to full employment and with the ONS recently estimating that there are currently 805,000 vacancies in the UK economy, the effects of the proposed new immigration system could be catastrophic.  

What did the Opposition parties say?

Diane Abbott, Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary, said the Government had not “thought through what the effects of this policy will be on the economy as a whole and what message it sends to migrants already living and working here".

Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat Home Affairs spokesperson, said the proposals were based on "xenophobia".

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland and SNP Leader, said the plans would be "devastating" for the Scottish economy.

 ?What happens next?

The proposals are due to be enacted into law before the end of the year. Given Boris Johnson’s 80-seat Parliamentary majority, they should pass with relative ease. However, it is still possible that they will be amended following further consultation with employers. Let’s hope so.

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

24 February 2020

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss