Brexit Made Simple – Issue 14, A RETURN FOR DEVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND?

What is the issue?

This week marks the third anniversary of the collapse of devolved government in Northern Ireland. 

Until shortly before last month’s General Election, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) held the balance of power in the House of Commons and had kept the UK Government in power for the previous two and a half years. 

It led many to conclude that the DUP had no real incentive to resurrect the Northern Ireland Executive and 90-member Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont.

However, after Boris Johnson reneged on a public commitment not to treat Northern Ireland differently to rest of the UK after Brexit, the DUP withdrew its support for his Government.

Both the DUP and the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein, performed badly at the General Election.

The UK Government has now set a deadline of next Monday (13 January) for the power-sharing administration to be restored, otherwise fresh elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly will be called.       

Why did devolution collapse?    

As a result of the unique history and circumstances in Northern Ireland which led to 30 years of “The Troubles,” the 1998 Good Friday Agreement compelled Unionists and nationalists to join together in a power-sharing Executive.

Since 2007, the DUP has been the largest Unionist party and Sinn Fein the largest nationalist party.

Because they won most votes, the DUP held the post of First Minister, whilst a Sinn Fein representative became Deputy First Minister. However, the two roles are essentially a joint office and one can only function with the full support of the other.

In November 2016, controversy around what’s known as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) came to public attention. It had been signed-off four years earlier by DUP First Minister Arlene Foster and its mismanagement cost the Northern Ireland Executive ￡480 million of taxpayers’ money.  

Sinn Fein called for Ms Foster to stand aside from her position to allow for an independent inquiry into the scandal, but she refused. This prompted Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness to resign, automatically removing Ms Foster from office and collapsing the Executive.

What have the interim arrangements been?

The nine Executive Departments previously controlled by devolved Ministers have been run by unelected civil servants.

The 90 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly, known as MLAs, have continued to do constituency work but on reduced salaries.

What efforts have been made to restore devolution?

There have been several rounds of all-party talks jointly chaired by the UK and Irish Governments. They came closest to success in February 2018 when a deal between DUP and Sinn Fein appeared to have been done.

However, after internal pressure from grassroots DUP members, Arlene Foster withdrew her party’s support citing concerns around Sinn Fein’s insistence on “standalone” legislation to promote and protect the Irish language.  

What are the sticking points now?

The proposed Irish Language Act remains an issue of contention. However, there are suggestions that compromise can be reached by broadening the scope of the legislation to include provisions on the Ulster Scots language and culture which is popular in some Unionist parts of Northern Ireland.

The DUP is also resisting changes to what’s known as the “petition of concern” which requires major decisions taken by the Northern Ireland Assembly to have majority support from Unionist and nationalist MLAs.

What unites the parties?

Strong hostility to Boris Johnson’s form of Brexit. 

The DUP was the only party in Northern Ireland to campaign for Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. Whilst not in favour of Theresa May’s deal because of opposition to the Irish backstop, they remained in favour of Brexit.

However, despite being involved in Boris Johnson’s work to secure a new Brexit deal minus the backstop, the DUP opposed the final agreement in Parliament as the new arrangements will lead to checks on goods entering Northern Ireland ports from the rest of the UK - effectively placing a border down the middle of the Irish Sea. 

The Prime Minister’s deal will also leave Northern Ireland subject to EU customs union rules and Single Market regulations despite the UK Government no longer having a voice in Brussels.

What happens next?

The Northern Ireland political parties plus the UK and Irish Governments have held bilateral discussions and roundtable talks during the Christmas period.  

These will continue this week with a view to a final deal being struck.

It is likely that the text of a draft agreement based on all of the discussions will be published in the coming days ahead of next Monday’s deadline.

As tends to be the case in Northern Ireland, the response of grassroots supporters in the DUP and Sinn Fein are likely to be crucial at that stage.

However, as a result of ever-growing problems in local hospitals and schools caused by an absence of policy direction from Northern Ireland Executive Ministers, a succession of opinion polls has found that there is a now a strong public demand for devolution to return.

That is why neither the DUP not Sinn Fein would welcome the prospect of new Northern Ireland Assembly elections should they fail to reach agreement.        

Can the deadline date be moved?

It’s possible but unlikely.   

13 January is the date when the legislation that gives civil servants the powers to make decisions without Ministers expires.  Moving the date would require further legislation and Northern Ireland is now well down Boris Johnson’s priority list.

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

6 January 2020

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss