Brexit: Low Probability-High Impact Scenarios

One of the key challenges in Futures work is to get people and organisations interested in unlikely scenarios. Back in 2006 I am aware of at least 2 Finance Firms who had "Credit Crunch" Scenarios in initial development but decided not to develop them because they " didn't like" that scenario. I also attended a series of Think Tank meetings on the "next downturn". I met people there from a variety of backgrounds who got 2007-08 largely correct. Whenever I hear the phrase " no-one saw it coming", my own response is largely along the lines of " no-one listened to those who did".

It is, for me, therefore important to ensure that all bases are covered, for a very important reason. There is always an assumption of those in charge is that they can control the pace and direction of change or events. What if they cannot?

The accession of the new PM is already leading to speculation about a September election and the increasing rhetoric around a " no deal Brexit". What is interesting, to me at least, is that no one on the Brexit side is talking about a second referendum to break the logjam. You might argue that this is clearly because they have ruled it out. I remind you that both Theresa May and A B de P Johnson also ruled/rule out a GE . That has not stopped speculation around a GE this time.

So, could a second referendum happen? I wouldn't dismiss it, for the reason that loss of control over the agenda could make it the Brexiters plan. Call the remainers bluff and go for a TM deal vs No Deal Brexit, without remain as an option. Parliament might try to insert a remain option, but the arithmetic could be unpredictable.

The real challenge over the September election argument is that there is one seat that could be lost, the PMs in Uxbridge, even if the Conservatives remain the largest party. I don't think that there is time to get a united remain ticket nationally, but in one seat it is too tempting to try to create the first sitting PM to lose seat since 1906, Arthur Balfour.

So, given political volatility and more details of "no deal brexit" in the public domain, would the PM risk his own seat to get no deal through? Remember that May thought she would get a 100 seat majority at minimum.

The EU would offer an extension for a 2nd referendum. remember that Barnier has offered to help the PM " facilitate the Withdrawl agreement". So a second referendum with the Withdrawl agreement vs no deal, while seemingly remote at this moment, given the parliamentary arithmetic would enable a PM to claim that he had done his best to deliver but been thwarted by parliament so he was calling their bluff. They voted the WA down 3 times, so here was the referendum that remainers wanted.

In our strange and uncertain time, prepare for the unexpected.