Brexit in the Left Column, Trump in the Right. Here I am...
This might sound familiar; if we don't get something agreed upon this week, we'll be leaving the EU on Friday without a deal.
Mrs May's plan is to build a 'Boris-proof Brexit' that would survive a change of leadership, which might bring Labour closer to getting behind a deal. Of course, if you listen to Labour they say there's been no movement from the Tory side of the table and that there's unlikely to be any agreement at this rate. There is talk of Theresa taking someone from Labour as part of her EU delegation on Wednesday, which would infuriate most of the Tory party, but signal good intent, but five days of good intentions and no actions would see us fall out, sans deal.
Not if Donald Tusk has his way... He's throwing another word into our vocabulary;
'Flextension'.
Noun: Two words cobbled together to show willing and creativity. Also; a fudge to prevent the worst case scenario. Also; to delay the UK's exit date from the EU for up to a year, but allow it to be brought forward if a deal is agreed. Also; another word the world didn't think it needed until it needed it.
Obviously, this would mean us contesting European elections at the end of May, which is another point that will infuriate Brexiteers - not least Jacob Rees Mogg, who tweeted "If we are stuck in we must use the remaining powers we have to be difficult. Sincere co-operation so far seems to be a one-way street." Sentiment that probably doesn't fill EU members with enthusiasm over extending the deal.
To European economics; UBS has said that European banks are vulnerable to another credit crunch and that if their share prices continue to fall this will tighten lending on the continent, which could have knock-on effects in the economy. The ECB has tried to mitigate this by restarting their long term lending to banks, but this has had limited success in terms of share price rises.
On the other side of the issue; Swiss regulators are weighing up increasing the capital burdens on banks in a bid to make sure that anyone that is 'systemically important' is well insulated in the event of a crisis. Interestingly; their main concern isn't the Swiss economy, but fears that a major global crisis would see bank funds prioritised to London and New York, which might lead to negative outcomes for the Swiss taxpayer. Bloomberg has more.
Staying with banks; not many people know this, but Donald Trump is an expert on central bank monetary policy... So much so that he has started calling for the Fed to re-launch quantitative easing! It's not enough for him for the Fed to pause their rate hikes, he wants them to re-open the taps and get printing money again. He's also likely to appoint two people to vacant seats at the Fed that are very aligned with his thinking and could yet get his way.
Today's economic calendar is reasonably busy, but once again the focus is likely to be what's going on at Westminster.
Have a great week.