Brexit ... I Still Don't Get It!

Brexit ... I Still Don't Get It!

'Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," the lady said, in a painful and barely rhyming slogan. But the evidence, however, is overwhelming that the path out of the EU is littered with uncertainty and danger and the protracted negotiations threaten to poison relationships with our near neighbours. Far from offering a bright tomorrow, as Theresa May seems to believe, this could leave the UK a pariah state in its own backyard. I still don't see how Brexit brings a successful outcome for the UK, whichever way you look at it!

The establishment of trade deals will take years to finalize - some reports say as much as a decade - and there is no guarantee that we will gain a better deal than what we have now. In reality it will probably be a whole lot worse! At best we face a lost decade of low growth and declining output.

Immigration, the underlying concern of many leave voters, will not be stemmed by our exit from the EU, because much of the inward migration into the UK comes from elsewhere. What will stem the tide of immigration, however, will be the malaise that overtakes the formerly buoyant UK economy. And besides the migrants that come to the UK have contributed to that growth, rather than seeking to game the system and claim the dole, as many leave campaigners erroneously assert!

Business, quite understandably, wants to be within the largest and richest trading bloc in the World and our position outside of it will make us an unattractive proposition on the edge of the Continent. And that is even before we have discussed the corrosive effects of the ongoing uncertainty - business hates uncertainty and the longer this persists, the more likely they are to postpone investment, or decide to relocate to where there is greater certainty and stability, with all the knock-on effects that this has for growth, employment, and prosperity.

Many of Europe's capitals are vying for a slice of London's financial wealth and while the bankers may be universally loathed, they add billions to the UK's coffers that will otherwise need to come from elsewhere - and there ain't many other industries that generate that sort of revenue for the nation.

Then there are the major factual errors that were part of the leave campaign: the return of sovereignty and the millions that would be returned to invest in the NHS. The former is an illusion, few nations enjoy sovereignty as an unbridled right to shape their own destiny, not even the USA! The lack of influence that our exit from the EU will bring, is going to be a harsh lesson in sovereignty and realpolitik!

And then there's the whole issue of the money: the return of £350M per week that was emblazoned across the Leave campaign's battle bus! The figure was roundly discredited in the aftermath of the referendum, with Messrs, Gove, Johnson, and Farage, all admitting that it was nothing but 'Scotch mist'. The stark reality is that the divorce settlement with the EU, which our partners are insisting must be settled before any trade deal is signed, could amount to as much as £90 billion! How many hospitals and other vital services could that fund?

With many of the central pillars of the Leave campaign's arguments so thoroughly discredited, how come more of the leave supporters aren't up in arms about the 'fake news' of greater sovereignty, lower immigration, and more money for essential services, that they were promised! All of which have been fairly and comprehensively shown to be an illusion!

And finally there is the question of what becomes of the UK. The SNP is pushing for a second referendum, and, while the polls suggest that a majority still want to remain part of the UK, the undecided voters are what will determine the outcome. And weren't we told that the outcome of the EU referendum was a forgone conclusion, until we all awoke to the improbable scene of Nigel Farage declaring that our 'Independence Day' had come! Our relations with Ireland and the border with the North will cause considerable strains and the Irish Government are already pushing for a settlement with the EU that would cover the whole of the island of Ireland.

Back in June, when the referendum was settled, I was one of the 48% and I was told, repeatedly, that I had 'lost'! Somehow this also seemed to mean that I had also lost the right to comment and to have any say as to how the nature of Brexit would occur. But few people in the Government or in Parliament had given much thought to what Brexit actually meant either, which makes May's slogan even more vacuous. And we still don't know what it means, let alone what 'success' looks like. If there had been a clear mandate from the referendum and a considered strategy for all of this, I wouldn't mind so much. But I do mind that this process is being driven at a breakneck speed and with a total disregard for any dissenting voices.

If you are looking for any answers from me, I am sorry, I don't have any! Above all, the whole thing saddens me, the country that I was brought up in, not to mention its values of tolerance and fair play, seemed to vanish on that night in June. Dean Acheson, a former US Secretary of State, once said, "Britain has lost an empire and not yet found a role." Which stung at the time, largely because he was absolutely right. Well I think we had found a role in the aftermath of Empire, but Brexit threatens to plunge us back into uncertainty and even oblivion.

And I don't see anyone able to stop this Brexit juggernaut, before it sends us over the precipice!

Brexit ... I still don't get it!!!

Disclaimer:

Opinions expressed are solely my own and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer.

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