Is Brexit dead in the water?

Is Brexit dead in the water?

The Prime Minister is doing everything in her power to delay a meaningful vote on her deal, mostly because she is trying to find a unifying solution that will miraculously pull all sides of the House of Commons together behind her new vision. The deal which would mean tearing up the agreed and signed present deal would then need to be accepted by Europe. The likelihood of this being achievable in the time available is almost nil. Any deal would need to meet the objectives of diametrically opposed groups. There is not a single MP who has not now come down on one side or the other and will somehow jump at a deal which will by necessity be a compromise.

So what next? The PM is trying to exert pressure by running down the clock, by taking the threat of a no deal to the brink. The plan is MPs will then cave in to accepting her deal rather than crashing out. This is really an empty threat; the country is not ready for no deal. The legislation that will govern a no deal is not in place, the Commons and Lords do not have the time or capacity to pass the needed primary legislation on trade, healthcare, agriculture, fisheries, immigration and the necessary amended Prime Minister’s deal in six weeks. The secondary legislation, a 600 strong mountain of Statutory Instruments that will be required, alone, will take months to pass.

The consequences of a no deal, will have a massive political price, any party that was responsible, would be punished electorally for decades. This makes it almost certain that an extension will be agreed. The problem for Brexit is that once an extension is put in place there will be no way to get a credible fixed exit point in place, and Brexit will be stuck in limbo.

To achieve Brexit after an extension there will need to be a fundamental renegotiation with Europe. The UK’s negotiating position will need to be based on a consensually agreed way forward supported by the main political parties, good luck there.

Parliament is basically gridlocked; MPs have stated their individual position and the only way out is a second referendum. This prospect is not popular amongst the political elite as it means that the first referendum result will not be honoured and most of them cannot be seen to publically endorse a new poll that will probably reverse Brexit. However their objections will disappear if the momentum that is now building in the country grows for a second vote then they will be reflecting the new will of the people. This means they will not suffer individually the political fallout from overturning the first vote.

There is still a real risk that the PM will be inflexible enough to crash the UK out without a deal, the cost to the country would be extremely high however the damage to the Tories would be fatal. Parliament, on all political sides has opposed crashing out and so will force an extension. Getting Brexit through after an extension will be a mountain to climb.