BREXIT - A Comprehensive Guide

Dear Readers, in this article, I am going to explain BREXIT. Since BREXIT is one of the most complicated political exercise undertaken, impacting so many countries, at once, I have created this guide for the benefit of those interested. I will try to keep it very simple. Some of the points, in bits and pieces, may be already known, but here is the holistic view.

BREXIT has not reached its conclusion. Hence, there will be more updates in this article, as BREXIT progresses.

EUROPEAN UNION

Starting with European Union, it is the place from where United Kingdom is planning to detach itself. The process of UK coming out of European Union is BREXIT. Hence, it is important to understand the idea behind European Union. There are 28 member countries, some of which are founding members while others have joined EU over a period. The European Union has Sweden and Finland in the North, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal in the south. Some important countries like France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom and others are important members.

United Kingdom is the place where all the activity of BREXIT is, and we will focus most of our attention to this area. Further we have United Kingdom which consists of Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. These four countries together make United Kingdom. So, we see that United Kingdom has been part of the European Union and is located outside the mainland Europe as an island. All these years, members working together with European Union, have developed into a very strong economy with nearly 18 trillion-dollar worth of GDP, which is second to only United States. As you can see United States is nearly 20 trillion-dollar economy. So European Union together with its member countries, form an important part in the global economy. It provides direction and guidance do all other countries across the world for providing quality of life to its citizens, quality of work life and high Happiness Index. We also fine that European Union have been participating in a positive way, to achieve global peace. Hence all the effort is there to stabilize European Union because any disruption would be detrimental to rest of the world.

FEATURES OF EUROPEAN UNION

How European Union can achieve so much? It needs to be understood by its very nature of composition. It has provided to its 28 members, a Customs Union and Single Market. Together they form nearly 24% of our GDP. European Union provides free movement of goods services and people across its borders. This means that people who are citizens of the member countries can have businesses and life in any these countries of their choice. Here are few of the examples of free movement of goods. Airbus, the aircraft is manufactured in Germany, United Kingdom and France. The components are procured from all the countries in the European Union, with different sizes and complexities. When these components move within the European Union, they do not have to pay any customs duty nor there are any border checks. Thus, Airbus aircraft is truly a product of European Union. Similarly, a bank of Germany can have its branches and financial services like credit cards, insurance and other financial products across other countries. Free movement of people what is the most interesting and powerful feature of the European Union. This means a citizen for example United Kingdom can live in Belgium, travel daily to work in a border town of Germany, have his children educated in Sweden and together the family can go for a holiday to Greece or Spain. In fact, they can buy a holiday home in exotic south of France. During their living and travel they need not have any visa checks. The borders are seamless. This makes it very simple for the Citizens of these 28 member countries to live, work and holiday in any part of European Union, without restriction. In order to facilitate the free movement of goods services and people, the European Union follows common agricultural laws, environmental regulations, uniform industry and corporate laws.

To keep all the European union members safe, they have a common foreign and security policy. For that, together they share intelligence and keep a close watch on potential threats.

Like any other country, European Union has a European Court of Justice whose jurisdiction is valid in these 28 member countries. This is a very powerful institution that European Union has and is responsible for resolution of many complex civil and criminal cases. For many cases, European Court of Justice, provides the full and final judgement that needs to be complied by all the member countries. Ever since the European Court of Justice has been formed United Kingdom alone has been able to extradite nearly 16,000 criminals using European arrest warrant.

All these countries in general, adhere to fundamental rights of the European Union as laid down in its charter.

Then there is European Central Bank, who regulates and govern the Euro currency. Except for a few countries like United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden and few others, 19 countries have Euro as its currency. So, the European Central Bank manages euro like any other Central Bank for their member countries. On a day-to-day basis the European Central Bank is interacting with the Central Bank of the individual member countries, for issues related to its economy, trade and currency. The European Central Bank is also responsible other banking regulations, as if EU was a country.

To create regulations, laws and policies, for the member countries, the European Parliament sits in Strasbourg. To add complexities, EU parliament also holds its session in Brussels. The European Parliament consists of members who are elected in their respective countries. These are called Members of European Parliament (MEP) and each country holds a separate general election, once in 5 years, to elect their MEPs. As in the case of United Kingdom, who gets second largest number of MEPs, after Germany, sends 73 members.

One of the important features of European Union, that needs appreciation, is for its positive record of maintaining peace and stability in the region. We do understand that Europe was the centre of trouble and extreme violence during WWI and WWII. Ever since the European Union has been formed, those nations who were engaged in bloody war, are now the most trusted and important trading partners. They share the same ideology and work together in all important G7 and G20. It has brought together people with varied culture, language and economic status. European Union has been a beacon for all other countries in the world to set standards for human rights, food regulation and environmental protection. This has been one of the single largest achievement of European Union.

If a country plans to join the European Union, it must meet Copenhagen criteria, which is an exhaustive list of standards that a country must meet prior to joining. These criteria include records of Human Rights, Debt to GDP ratio, Standard of living, Democracy and other best practices of civil Society.

UNITED KINGDOM

The referendum for BREXIT happened in United Kingdom. It is therefore important that we understand what United Kingdom stands for, and what are the complex issues involved in BREXIT. As you can observe, United Kingdom consist of four countries, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. These are countries on its own with its own capitals and Parliament. England is the only country, which does not have its own assembly but is governed by the national Parliament. The national Parliament resides in London and it's called Palace of Westminster. The elected member of parliament from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland meet at the UK’s central Parliament, which is the Palace of Westminster. They enact laws which are applicable to England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The local assemblies of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland also enact their local laws. It is important to understand that England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland has pound sterling, as its currency.

BREXIT REFERENDUM VOTING ANALYSIS

Let us now understand the voting pattern of United Kingdom in the BREXIT referendum. England voted to leave. Scotland voted to Remain. Northern Ireland voted to Remain. Wales voted to Leave. The interesting bit is that London voted to Remain. Though, overall the majority votes are for LEAVE, there is a fractured mandate. This is where the complication about the BREXIT process starts. Out of 4 countries, two countries have voted to leave and two countries, to remain. The capital of the United Kingdom, which is also the financial centre of the World, voted to Remain.

POLITICAL PARTIES IN UK PARLIAMENT

To understand BREXIT, we also need to understand the configuration of the political parties in the UK Parliament. England has three major parties like Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat. Until BREXIT, UKIP (was) a political force but never had a seat (except once) in the House of Parliament. Scotland has Scottish National Party (SNP). Northern Ireland has democratic Unionist party (DUP). Sinn Fein is another important party from Northern Ireland, who stand for unification of Ireland. Their MPs though elected, do not attend the Westminster, in protest of UK’s role in Irish politics. They had been part of a violent history.

Wales has Welsh Labour Party, Welsh Conservative Party and Welsh Liberal Party as partners to national parties respectively. So does Scotland have Scottish Conservative Party, Scottish Labour Party and Scottish Liberal Democrat Party.

Scottish National Party (SNP), Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru are examples of formidable regional parties. These parties control the opinion of their respective countries and therefore play crucial part in the process of BREXIT.

PARTY POSITION ON BREXIT

As we can see in England, conservative party, majority of the MPs voted to leave, so did the Scottish Conservative Party and the Welsh Conservative Party. On the other hand, in the Labour Party, the opinion is divided between Leave and Remain. Scottish National Party and DUP support Remain.

Wherever the opinion is divided between leave and remain, they are looking for a well-planned exit from European Union, with negotiated arrangement of Single market, Customs Union and free movement of people. They are also suggesting that UK's parliament is not governed by the laws and regulations enacted by European Parliament.

Based on the outcome of these negotiations, there could be one of the two outcomes. Deal or No Deal.

Deal is a situation where are United Kingdom and European Union negotiate with each other, about policies and procedures, that will be followed during the transition, as well as in future. This would mean that, United Kingdom and European Union decide on issues like Security, Trade, Movement of people, Border and other things.

No Deal scenario means United Kingdom will not have a special trade agreement with European Union countries. Instead UK will follow World Trade Organisation framework for trade with European Union.

All these issues are discussed under article 50.

The importance of the position of these political parties on BREXIT, is about their interest in moving away from European Union as well as continuing to do business with European Union. As you can see London, which is basically a financial centre, wanted to remain in European Union. Any disruption would mean serious loss of revenue for the financial markets based here.

Similarly, Scotland found that most of their business is done with European Union countries, and therefore they would be in disadvantage if they leave European Union. Hence, the political parties in Scotland campaigned to remain in the European Union.

Northern Ireland and with its democratic Unionist party DUP, wants to be in EU, owing to its unique geographical location in the island of Ireland. As it has a land border with the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland has most of the trade, nearly 55%, with Ireland, who is part of European Union. So, it has a unique position of being in United Kingdom and having a land border with European Union. In fact, out of the four countries of United Kingdom England Scotland Wales and itself Northern Ireland is the only country which has border with European Union. Northern Ireland historically has deep sense of association with Republic of Ireland. There are families which live both in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Any separation of Northern Ireland from European Union would lead to separation from Republic of Ireland, and that will have detrimental social consequences. Hence, the political parties in Northern Ireland have been campaigning to remain in the European Union.

IMPORTANT DATES OF EU & BREXIT

These are some of the important dates which are relevant to the European Union and hence are also important for BREXIT. The concept of European Union started as European Communities with the set of small countries in 1973. In 1975 United Kingdom conducted referendum and its membership to the European Communities. Nearly 23 years later the European Union was formed by Maastricht Treaty. Maastricht is a town in Netherland. This was the first step towards making Europe a giant Economic and Social power. Not everybody was happy with United Kingdom joining the European Union. United Kingdom Independence Party now called UKIP was found subsequently to oppose United Kingdom's participation in Europe union. According to UKIP, United Kingdom would do better if it was an independent country, rather not going by rules and regulations of the European Union. UKIP continued campaign for another 23 years, creating pressure on the government to come out of European Union. With global Events, listed later in this article, UKIP was able to make a point for BREXIT.

In 2014 election to the European Parliament, UKIP won 26% of the votes. This created panic in the political parties because UKIP’s vote share was higher than the other leading parties in the UK Parliament. The Conservative Party, who was in power, wanted to strategically checkmate the growth of UKIP. Hence, they promised to include referendum on European Union, if it comes to power in 2015 general election. As predicted the Conservative Party won majority and formed the government under the prime minister ship of David Cameron.

Based on the election manifesto, honouring the commitment, the David Cameron government held a BREXIT referendum in the June of 2016. All parties including UKIP campaign for and against leaving the European Union. The result of the referendum was unexpected. Conservative party’s strategy to stop UKIP’s popularity and demand for BREXIT failed. UK voted to leave European Union by a slim majority of 51.9%. Since Prime Minister David Cameron lost the referendum, he resigned from the premiership.  

United Kingdom had earlier adopted an act of fixed-term Parliament. This means that even if the ruling party loses majority, in the House of Parliament, there will be no election until 5 years or parliament approves election by a two-third majority. Under that law, without fresh elections, Mrs. Theresa May who then, was the home secretary, (Home Minister) took over as prime minister, to take forward the BREXIT mandate.

After much discussion and by the act of Parliament, United Kingdom formerly started the process of withdrawal from the European Union. This is by invoking article 50 of the Treaty of European Union. Article 50 is a set of detailed procedures and steps that European Union and United Kingdom have to undertake to complete the orderly withdrawal. We will discuss about this article 50, subsequently. The interesting part with Mrs Theresa May was that she herself was a Remainer but was assigned a prime ministership to deliver BREXIT.

The date for the BREXIT was set for 29th of March 2019. This was exactly 2 years after article 50 was invoked.

IMPORTANT DATES OF BREXIT

In order to smoothen out the parliamentary approvals and provide stable leadership for BREXIT, Mrs Theresa May called for snap general election as she was not an elected Prime Minister. She was expecting a full majority so that at her proposals in the Parliament sailed through easily. On the contrary, Mrs Theresa May lost majority. Although her party, the Conservative Party was the single largest party in the Parliament she needed support to form the government. She took help of DUP, the Northern Ireland party to form the government. DUP is a REMAIN party. It was an important development in the BREXIT politics. DUP now must play a crucial role in supporting the government, while negotiating for its objective to Remain, contrary to BREXIT.

Northern Ireland has been most hit in the BREXIT because of its unique geographical position in the United Kingdom. We will discuss in detail below.

By March 2019, both EU and the United Kingdom were unable to complete the negotiation about the future of the two. So United Kingdom sought an extension for the withdrawal date. European Union agreed for 12 April 2019 (14 days later). The British Parliament still were not able to agree and vote for a favourable deal and therefore asked for yet another extension. This time the European Union agreed for 31st October 2019.

The negotiations under article 50 was complex. Members within the same party were divided, based on how their constituencies have voted. There was internal party dissent in all the political parties of United Kingdom. As a result, members of Parliament deliberately disobeyed their party whip. It was a political chaos.

Mrs. Theresa May resigned, as keeping her flock together, was difficult. Mr Boris Johnson took over. This time UK had a prime minister who favoured BREXIT, but he still was not the elected Prime Minister of the country.

Under the shadow of British political changes, the negotiation between European Union and United Kingdom, continued. Since Parliament had voted against many parts of the Boris Johnson’s deal, to expedite and push BREXIT through, he passed an order for “Prorogation” (Suspension) of the Parliament. When challenged, this action was termed illegal by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom.

After a loss of 14 days, Parliament subsequently resumed the normal working.

On the 16th of October 2019, the UK government brought the final negotiated deal from the European Union. The deal was tabled in the Parliament for approval. The UK Parliament voted against the deal. Henceforth, the BREXIT is still pending. 31st October is just a few days away and BREXIT deal is not in sight.

In accordance with the Benn act, the Parliament we'll have to see an extension for the new BREXIT date for 31st of January 2020.

ARTICLE 50

As mentioned earlier, Article 50 is a step by step procedure to ensure that country leaving European union doesn’t create shock and disruption. Article 50 lays down guidelines like the negotiation period of 2 years, followed by transition period. Once a deal has been negotiated, European parliament will then ask their remaining 27 countries to vote and endorse. Since, leaving the EU is complicated due to interconnection of business, families and trade deals, a lot of negotiation about the withdrawal and future relations hold significance. There are 1.2 million (12 Lakh) British living in the EU countries and similarly there are 3.2 million (32 Lakh) EU citizens living in Britain. They all must make drastic changes to their lives. Then there is Irish border management that needs to be sorted out too. In future, how the intelligence framework would work for data sharing and threats requires detailed discussion and so does the status of financial services.

One important point to be noted is about the nature of Article 50. It is not legally binding to either Britain or EU. But Britain has decided to follow Article 50 to secure stability and certainty in the region and for its population.

TYPES OF BREXIT

Hard BREXIT

This is a No-Deal kind of scenario. UK will leave EU’s single market and the customs union. This will result in restricted movement of people with visa and travel documentation. UK will have to sign a new trade deal with EU, as if it was a new country. Also, UK will be able to sign a trade deal with on its own with any other country. Obviously, there will be no jurisdiction of European Court of Justice nor will there be any regulation imposed by European Parliament. UK has an option to continue trading with EU on WTO terms till the time it negotiates new trade deal.

TYPES OF BREXIT

Soft BREXIT

There are 3 option which UK can negotiate if it plans to be part of EU, while still leaving the EU.

Option 1: It can stay in the European Economic Area like Norway to take advantage of single market. But then it must allow free movement of people. This has been the single most important sticking point in the BREXIT campaign. Since there will trade and free movement of people, European Court of Justice will prevail over British Courts and this again was an important point for BREXIT campaign. UK must contribute to the EU budget for the administration, though it may not be same as it currently is. In return, UK can have trade deal with other non-EU countries as an independent country.

Option 2: UK can stay in the Customs Union, which mean that UK will have to take EU deals only. This would also mean that UK will not be part of EU’s trade negotiations. There will be no free movement of people though.

Option 3: UK can join both Single Market and Custom’s Union but at its own terms after negotiating with EU. Probably, this would be a deal, which the country is waiting for, after 3 years of BREXIT referendum.

 POSSIBLE RESULTS OF DEAL OR NO-DEAL

In case of no-deal, there will be a border set up between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland. This is due to Northern Ireland’s unique position of sharing the Irish Island with the Republic. As we know the Republic of Ireland is in the EU, while Northern Ireland will BREXIT along with other countries of UK. In that case, a BACKSTOP arrangement has been proposed. BACK-STOP is a place on the border of NORTHERN IRELAND and REPUBLIC of IRELAND, where all the trucks and cargo will stop for some time, to process the customs check. This will not include people for checks.

 WHY IRELAND’s GEOGRAPHY & HISTORY IS IMPORTANT

To understand the pitfalls of BACKSTOP, we need to dwell into the geography and history of Ireland. If we zoom into the Island of Ireland, we find that Northern Ireland sits next to Republic of Ireland with a land border. Republic of Ireland runs on Euro, as it is part of EU and Northern Ireland has Pound Sterling, because it is United Kingdom. They have friendly relations because both countries share common heritage. In any trade, border plays an important role in the configuration. Here, Northern Ireland, which was in EU till now, will now be separating. So, what happens to the trade between the two countries, sharing the same Island, but belonging to two different trading blocs?

BRIEF HISTORY OF IRELAND

The Island of Ireland was one unified colony of the United Kingdom, until the War of Independence in 1920s. The island was divided into Irish Free State or Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland still stays with United Kingdom. With the formation of European Union, both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are unified as far as free movement of people, goods and services are concerned. There is no physical border between the two. The geopolitical unmanned border though, is nearly 500 km long with more than 300 crossings. 54% of the Northern Ireland’s trade is with Republic of Ireland. The situation in Northern Ireland is still on thin ice, as there is no functioning government. Any change in the territorial status, as it looks highly likely in case of BREXIT, might change the peace balance for worse. The island already had a very violent past until 1998. Still we see some case of political violence in Northern Ireland.

BACKSTOP

BACK-STOP is a place on the border of NORTHERN IRELAND and REPUBLIC of IRELAND where all the trucks and cargo will stop for some time to process customs check. This will not include People.

With BREXIT, will come the division of the Island at least in terms of trade and tariff. The free movement of goods under European union would cease to exist. This implies that those 500 km of Irish border would then be gated and manned for applying customs duty. Also, this would have to be applied at nearly 300 crossings. In order to avoid any kind of inconvenience, and lorry queuing up, the concept of BACKSTOP is proposed. This would require a place of chosen, where all the lorries would check-in to declare the customs. This would also mean that there will be restriction movement of people too.

Since the idea of BACKSTOP did not fly with the general public, a new customs border has been proposed. This is in the middle of the Irish Sea (dotted line) which separates the Island of Ireland with rest of the United Kingdom. All the goods coming to Northern Ireland will pay advance duty and will be refunded in case goods don’t move to Republic of Ireland (EU). This is how complicated the geography and history of Ireland has proven to BREXIT.

WHY BREXIT?

There were several contributing factors for which the people of United Kingdom voted for BREXIT. Mostly it was the fear of diluting British identity, losing job and poor economy due to EU regulations. Also, it was about possibility of doing much better with the finances, if UK was out of EU obligations. Here are some important reasons.

As more and more countries were joining EU, citizens from lesser developed EU countries like Poland were coming into UK for work. In the low paid job sector, they were rapidly displacing the native workers, who were generally more expensive and slower. Those who came and settled, brought along with them a culture, that crept into parts of towns and city centres. Low key Xenophobia was felt across much of England.

Then came the Refugee crisis, which flooded the borders of Europe from Greece. People from Syria, Libya, Somalia and other Arab and African nations, fled the devastations of war and famine back home. Risking their lives, they crossed the dangerous Mediterranean Sea, into Europe. Thousands tragically perished in the attempt. Those who were lucky, once within the borders, spread around the EU countries. They traversed thousands of miles into Germany, many reaching as far as Sweden in the North. At the doorstep of United Kingdom, separated by English Channel, there were many refugees in camps, attempting to come into UK.

On humanitarian basis, Germany took in nearly 1 million refugees while UK took in, nearly 3000. There was much debate about taking in more numbers like Germany. Fears about national security grew in UK, as refugees were mostly from Arab countries.

The financial crisis of 2008, and austerity, thereafter, played a significant role in general discontent. London and UK economy were the most hit after US. The government funded the UK bank’s bailout with austerity. With low paid workers from other EU countries disrupting the UK job market, the idea BREXIT was gaining grounds.

The Greece Euro crisis too, played a significant role especially with the EU bail out. Many believed Greece should have been let off the EU membership as its membership was a mistake in the first place.

The “Supremacy of EU Law” was also hurting. UK courts are required not to enforce UK laws to the extent that they are incompatible with EU obligations. Consequently, the British court rulings were overturned by European court of justice and British were feeling that their sovereignty was at stake. Especially in case of a terrorist, who was supposed to be deported from London to Jordan. EU court overturned to deportation for a while, and it brought only bad name to the idea of EU.

Over regulation made people extremely unhappy. The regulations were strict and penetrated deep into the practices of daily life. Like the existing beer mugs were to be discontinued because they did not have lids. In all fairness, there were good regulations too. All this while UKIP was persistently campaigning against the EU and found these examples to drive the public opinion towards BREXIT.

During the referendum campaign, the LEAVE campaigners including the current PM and UKIP leaders, highlighted the UK’s contribution of ￡350 million every week to EU. Though this was half-truth as some part of it did come back to UK as grants and subsidies. But public opinion was severely impacted in favour of BREXIT.

WHY REMAIN?

Remainer had all the reasons for which the EU was formed. EU has brought peace in the region after the WWII and generally the quality of life across the nations have improved. EU is beacon of Human Rights, Workers Right and Quality of Life. EU has been pioneering in pollution controls and quality of food. The british institution like NHS, Voters wanted to remain in the EU because they felt threatened by the import of low quality chemically treated foods from US. The fear that UK, together with EU will lose its bargaining power for trade deal, was another driving factor to remain in the EU.

CONSEQUENCES OF NO DEAL BREXIT (Political)

For the UK, there will be two most immediate political consequences. One in the Northern Ireland and the other in the Scotland.

Scotland had already showed its intention of leaving UK, much before BREXIT referendum was called for. They had tried with a failed referendum in year 2014. Since, Scotland had voted overwhelmingly to REMAIN in the EU, the time will be right to give Scottish Independence another go. This intention has already been voiced by the member of parliament at Westminster. Scotland leaving the UK will then draw border with England. During the Independence referendum of 2014, the failing point was the economy and the currency. The Scottish leaders wanted to continue with the Pound Sterling even after gaining independence from the UK. This time around, that issue is resolved as Scotland will join the EU as a separate country with Euro.

Northern Ireland and the UK are signatory to the Good Friday Agreement. This prevents any intervention to the territorial issues. With BREXIT comes the border between Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is contrary to the agreement. Hence, it would be more convenient for the Northern Ireland to merge with the republic. It will be more convenient for free movement of its people, goods and services. Also, it will reinstate the status of Ireland back to unified Ireland of 1922.

CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT (ECONOMIC)

The global economics will be severely disrupted with BREXIT. The impact is expected to last for many years as the UK and EU economies will be readjusting to the new European order. Germany along with other EU countries will have to redefine their tariffs. The Euro volume of trade is enormous and so is the number of items that need to be redefined. The pound sterling has already taken a hit and might fall still further.

Many businesses had already shifted their HQs to either in Europe or elsewhere to escape uncertainty. The financial sector has also seen a shift of location out of London.

In short term, there is going to be shortage of food and medicines in the UK. Many of the food items will get perished as they will wait longer at the ports. If not, the cost of transportation will add up to the overall cost of items crossing the borders, either way.

Already, there is shortfall in manpower in UK. As we had seen there were 3.2 million EU citizens in the UK. Due to uncertainty they have moved back to their home country or any other suitable country. The NHS (Hospital service of UK) is in severe shortage of doctors and nurses. They are over worked, and the latest statistics indicates 1 doctor suicide every 3 weeks. Already there is a shortage of seasonal worker and tonnes of unharvested apples are rotting in the farms of Kent.

UK, by its very geography has abundant rains and cloud cover, all round the year. To escape the climate, millions of British have set up their holiday homes or permanent homes in south of Europe, namely Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece. The fate of their property rights hangs in uncertainty. So does the fate of EU citizens who are settled in UK and have bought property.

Probably, the cost of travelling to EU will increase as the cost of travel and insurance will increase. It will take longer for border crossing and a different driving permit may be required for UK citizens.

On the business front, one can expect many litigations as the retained EU laws in British laws will cease. There are good chances of interpretation issues.

The greatest fear in the food industry is from the US. It is feared that GM food and other chemically treated food will be allowed into UK.

CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT (Geo-Political)

 The uncertainty caused by BREXIT is bound to create international ripples. Due to changes in economic and business environment, newer trade alliance will be formed. UK will go out into the world forming trade partnerships. UK may move more closer to the US and China.

Over the years, UK may enter a trade war with EU or UK becomes the melting pot like Singapore and Hong Kong. A weaker EU is also vulnerable to Russia though NATO alliance may still be a valid force.

Dissent in other EU countries already exists, much the same way as UKIP did. France, Italy and others. With BREXIT, other countries might explore their options and weigh on their advantages of making an exit from the EU. Certainly, there will be learning to be taken.

We have already mention about the Scottish Independence and Northern Ireland Merger. But if Scotland remain in the UK after the BREXIT and Northern Ireland gets the benefit of BACKSTOP at IRISH SEA, then Scotland will be disadvantaged. There is already voice of protest in the parliament about this arrangement. Technically, Northern Ireland will reap the benefit of EU single market even after BREXIT.

The security threat to the UK or EU will increase as the intelligence sharing infrastructure will get diluted. Common foreign policy will drastically change too.

CONCLUSION

Europe is headed for very turbulent and uncertain times. European Union was formed to stabilize the region and embolden peace. It had been a beacon of democratic practices bringing to the world best of values in Human rights, Commerce and Justice. While the democratic process has been adhered to, the results of BREXIT may or may not be best suited for the most advance democracies of the world.

There will be more updates in this article, as BREXIT progresses.