BREXIT AT THE CHOSIN : NEW DIRECTIONS OR STAYING PUT ?

While it’s risky to stretch metaphors, as in my recent comment comparing the current state of Brexit to the battle of the Chosin Reservoir in the Korean War (ref: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/brexit-end-game-chaos-ways-out-erik-d-lazar/) , they can capture truths much more succinctly than drawn out analyses, so here’s a take on this week’s latest Brexit developments in military terms.

The Lessons of Chosin

If you recall the Battle of Chosin, one the greatest Houdini-like escapes in military history, saw the commanding general, Oliver P. Smith, extract an entire battalion of coalition forces from a mountainous valley in sub-zero temperatures with little hope of survival except through a single dirt road, surrounded by an overwhelming number of enemy hiding in the hills above the frozen reservoir and road, taking the opportunity to ‘advance in a different direction’ as he saw it (and refusing to call it a ‘retreat’). 

And so he did, avoiding a catastrophic defeat which could have ended in the collapse of the allied defense in Korea after the counterattack by enemy forces at the worst time (from an allied point of view) in that very difficult war. 

We left our own General (Prime Minister) May last week in the same cold abyss of a hard Brexit staring at her self-imposed March 29 deadline to exit the EU with no solution in sight and certain defeat ahead while she attempts to negotiate a last minute tweak to the Irish back stop commitment with the EU ‘enemy' which would keep the UK aligned with EU law and rules to prevent a hard Irish border, absent mutual agreement, a deal which in its current form her own army of Conservative Party supporters (with a rump brigade of DUP allies or mercenaries as it were), plus her internal UK opposition, have overwhelmingly refused to accept.

The EU armies in the hills, while showing some recent flexibility, have been stubbornly defending their core positions while at the same time offering a possible truce (of an extended delay, which May’s army also won’t accept) while her own frozen and rebellious troops have been deserting to the hills in increasing numbers, with other rebels (the Independent Group) and the restive public coalescing in her rear to encourage further rebellions.

Advance in a Different Direction(s) ?

General May had a number of choices to call off the defense of the valley and advance courageously as General Smith did, in a different direction, but instead this time in a number of possible directions :

A. Down the open road of a an easily achievable substantial delay in Brexit which the opposing EU armies have signaled they would accept (one to even two years), allowing her troops and the country to stop fighting internally, defrost , refresh and return to address Brexit another day perhaps in a more unified fashion unless a consensus could be reached and real peace could be made in the land at last internally and with the EU.

B. Going down an as yet untested narrow footpath of a second referendum which her own troops would be hesitant to use, because of its steep incline with no certain destination, in fear of offending the so-called majority (actually only 38 % of registered voters) who supported the original ‘war effort’ that was Brexit

C. Cancelling Article 50 altogether, the self-declared instrument which got her into this latest phase of the war in the first place, with its own two year built-in deadline for which she and her staff were totally unprepared, which neither her troops nor the rest of the Parliamentary forces down the line have been willing to contemplate in fear of losing their positions or support from supporters who got them where they are (in Parliament) in the first place even though this is the simplest way to take the pressure off and re-assess the field while retaining every right to refile and start the war all over again at a time of her own choosing.

D. Extending Article 50 and calling new elections, which would of course assume the EU would hold fire in the hope UK politics suddenly became more rational.

The Non - Retreat

So what did General May do ? She went 1/3 down the road to safety – and literally stopped.

In political terms, to head off an outright mutiny of those opposing freezing to death in the hard Brexit valley (a literal possibility if you inflated the likely trade disruption of trade for purposes of illustration) she basically said, let’s march down the road but not out of the valley – and stop.

That is, extend Brexit for a total of three months maximum (June to be exact) so she could continue to slog on with her EU negotiations if need be - including if her troops refused to follow her orders in mid- March to approve whatever she serves up with the opposing EU forces for a 'meaningful vote' scheduled at that time in Parliament resulting from her own private and never ending parlays in the hills (of Brussels).

This of course does not save the valley and win the day at all. In military terms it leaves the troops – and the country – exactly where they were at the start of the march (and literally in March (12 days from now to be exact) : in the valley surrounded and with a hard and newly imposed three month deadline in sight.

While those back in homeland may have cheered, with the country’s currency shooting up as fears of a massive defeat (hard Brexit) fade (for this week at least), in fact without any of the alternatives being yet considered (or voted on by Parliament), the new strategy is exactly the same as yesterday’s, namely without approval of General May’s as yet unachieved ‘new agreement’, the realities of the frozen valley remain unaltered whether the absolute deadline is March 29 or in June. 

Which is exactly what General May is counting on.

The Perils of Brinkmanship

This of course is brinkmanship supreme, and dangerous tactics. Sane commanders usually don’t win a war or even try to do so by means which risk killing off an entire country’s economy and future (unless they are dictators, and whatever her faults, General May is not that).

But her actions mirror what General Douglas MacArthur, overall head of the coalition forces in the first stages of the war, and himself accused of dictatorial ambitions, did in driving forces up to the Yalu River in Korea, despite intelligence warning against it, inviting an overwhelming counterattack and military disaster, which resulted in his firing by President Truman and drove his forces back south including elements to the Chosin.

That is what our General May is intending to do with her ‘rabbit out of the hat strategy’, which it must be said at the same time as of this writing, possibly, just possibly, may be working, for now at least. 

Why ? Because her troops (the Conservatives including the ERG hard Brexit faction plus the DUP) are so completely unwilling to consider or risk any of options A-D (or their variations) that they may just swallow the bitter pill of some kind of watered down Irish backstop to stop Brexit from not happening, however long the final transition period. 

Indeed that is what Lieutenant Jacob Reese-Mogg of May’s factional ERG division signaled this week on screen and in the Financial Times, engaging in his own personal retreat in face of these other strategic solutions to the Brexit mess of his own (and others’) making.

Whatever the outcome, in part because of battle fatigue and most importantly the bone chilling winds of a hard Brexit, both armies are scrambling to shift the posts – again – to avoid a battle to the death while maintaining their front line positions. This is what exhausted armies do. 

However, the risk of disaster or ‘stumbling into ‘ the abyss of a hard Brexit cannot be ruled out, something General May has yet to accomplish or agree to with this latest feint of a retreat, which indicates the continuing possibility of further stalemate along the battle lines, more mutinies and her own MacArthuresque demise unless, as in the Korean War, a truce is declared between the opposing sides, leaving them (the EU) and us (the UK) to wonder, on pause for reflection, what in the world was all the fighting about in the first place ?

Erik D. Lazar 

Mr. Lazar, a London-based international lawyer, is Director and Founder of Transatlantic Law International, a global business law firm, with affiliated firms in over 95 countries.