‘Brexit Brief’ – ISSUE 98, 20 December 2019

Disappearing Act

As I write, the newly-elected House of Commons is debating Boris Johnson’s revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill (or WAB) which sets out the terms of the UK’s impending divorce from the EU. With a healthy 80-seat majority in their favour, Conservative MPs will vote it through with ease before Parliament shuts down for Christmas. The Bill will return in early January for a truncated period of scrutiny before becoming law later in the month. At that point, our cherished EU membership will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Until yesterday, it was unclear exactly how the Prime Minister intended to “get Brexit done.” The Queen’s Speech, setting out the UK Government’s legislative programme for the next 12-18 months, answered many of these questions. (I will provide more detail in a ‘Brexit Made Simple’ on Monday).  The nature and tone of how our rulers intend to go about their jobs was made even more plain a few hours later with the publication of the WAB.   

If you think back just a few weeks to the events which led to the General Election, the Commons voted for the original WAB to pass its first stage and it seemed that Boris Johnson was on course to take the UK out of the EU by 31 January 2020. But after MPs complained about the pace at which he intended to ram it through its remaining stages, Johnson managed to successfully goad the Labour Party, SNP and Liberal Democrats to support his demand for a General Election. And we all know what happened next.  

The version of the WAB MPs supported back then included a number of measures that Theresa May - when still Prime Minister - had discussed with Opposition parties in an attempt to secure their backing. But when the new version appeared yesterday, almost all of these concessions had been removed. Guarantees on post-Brexit workers’ rights were gone. So too had safeguards on consumer rights and environmental protection, despite Michael Gove’s promises of delivering a “Green Brexit.”  A commitment to negotiate a deal for child refugees to join their families living in the UK was scrapped, a decision described by universally-respected Labour peer Lord Dubs as “mean-spirited and nasty.”   

Of course, simply passing the revised WAB will not “get Brexit done.” The negotiation of an all-encompassing deal on future UK-EU trade, security and political arrangements will be a much more challenging task. But it’s now clear that Johnson’s majority Government is determined to avoid the prying eyes of Parliamentarians. Obligations contained in the previous version of the Bill for Ministers to publish their negotiating objectives, and allow Parliament to vote on them and the final deal have been removed.  And, perhaps most alarmingly of all, the Government has now made it a legal commitment to agree all of the post-Brexit arrangements with the EU by 31 December 2020, or the UK will leave with no-deal. Yes, dear readers, the cliff-edge is back and Boris Johnson is happy for our great country to jump off it.         

No Labour of love

Whilst the General Election result created the impression of a surge of Tory support across the country, the statistics tell a very different tale. In comparison with 2017, the number of votes for Conservative candidates rose by just over 268,000 whilst the Labour total fell by an eye-watering 2,600,000.  In short, voters did not suddenly fall in love with Boris Johnson and his lurch to the right of UK politics, but they certainly had little time for Jeremy Corbyn and his protest march to the left. The race to replace Corbyn as Labour Leader will formally begin in January with his successor due in place by March. Whatever your political allegiance, there has never been a time in recent memory where the role of the Official Opposition has been so crucial. The battle for the soul of the Labour Party will be bitter, given the deep fissures that exist. But it is vital that its members get their decision right. I will share my thoughts as the candidates declare themselves and this all-important debate gets underway.      

Meanwhile in America…

Donald Trump made history this week when he became only the third US President in the 243-year history of the country to be impeached.   230 members of the House of Representatives voted in favour of Article I - abuse of power - with 197 against. 229 voted for Article II – obstruction of Congress - with 198 saying “nay.” As expected, party affiliations dictated the outcomes with all Republicans supporting their political hero.  

The next stage is for Trump to face a full trail on both charges in the Senate with removal from office the ultimate sanction if a two-thirds majority on either charge can be mustered. However, a debate is currently raging in Democratic ranks on when the drama should begin. In a series of tweets, Trump has demanded an immediate start to proceedings – in the knowledge that the Democrats are in the minority in the Senate and his Republican protectors are standing firm. But the Democratic leadership is now exploring ways in which Trump’s closest advisors can be compelled to give evidence against him. Lying to Congress is punishable by imprisonment and lying is what many of them have become famous for. Watch this space.        

Have a splendid weekend.

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss