“Brexit Brief” – ISSUE 90, 25th October 2019

Signs of The Times

The Times newspaper has today used a clever piece of technology to analyse 15 years and 350,000 words of Daily Telegraph columns penned by Boris Johnson. The analysis reveals that the now UK Prime Minister refers to himself every 112 words with his interest in particular subject areas ebbing and flowing like a tide buffeted by the wind. Or, put a little more bluntly, he’s self-obsessed and shallow. Seasoned Johnson-watchers knew this already but it’s always good to have scientific back-up for your argument.

I’ve said from the outset that this man is not fit to reside in 10 Downing Street and the events of this week have proven this once again. As I suggested in this week’s ‘Brexit Made Simple,’ the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) did pass its Second Reading on Tuesday but, thankfully, the Conservative Government failed to bully MPs into accepting a ridiculously truncated timetable for debate. But rather than accept the democratic will of the House, Johnson did what Johnson does and propelled his toys out of the pram by announcing a “pause” in the Bill’s passage. However, last night he went back onto the offensive. In a letter to Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, he offered to extend the time for Parliament to debate and pass the WAB by a handful of days ending on 6 November. But only on condition that MPs agree to a General Election 12 December. A vote on this is scheduled for Monday. Given that the plan is contaminated by the fingerprints of Johnson and his chief henchman Dominic Cummings, it is obviously a trap.

Both men know that the WAB has no chance of being approved by Parliament – at least without significant amendment – by 6 November. Any changes to the legislation, perhaps with MPs inserting a requirement for the UK to enter a customs union with the EU, will inevitably result in Johnson pulling the WAB entirely and claiming that the House of Commons has “blocked” Brexit. And if MPs reject his attempt to force a General Election, Johnson will blame them again to bolster his contrived “People versus Parliament” narrative. He has even threatened to put his Government “on strike” and make dally attempts to trigger an election until he gets his way.  

I remain convinced that Boris Johnson is not actually a Brexiteer but deliberately  latched onto the Brexit issue to further his own personal political ambitions.  Should the UK ever leave the EU – and I remain hopeful that we won’t – and he somehow stays in office, he will inevitably identify another issue to divide people whilst trying to get on the winning side. The Times analysis of this shameless man was accurate.       

D-days

Two key decisions will dictate the course of events over the coming days – and probably a great deal longer. First, the EU27 must decide if it will formally grant an extension to the 31 October Brexit deadline and, if so, for how long. Rumours abound that a new deadline of 15 November will be handed down with the option to extend until 31 January if the WAB has not been passed. An announcement was expected today but, at the time of writing, it could be delayed until early next week. The reason is that some EU Leaders believe they should hold back until they learn the outcome of the second key decision, namely if Jeremy Corbyn instructs his troops to vote for a General Election.    

Most Labour MPs are believed to oppose an early poll. One reason is they know they cannot win a majority under Corbyn. The second is they fear that, should the EU offer an extension date of 31 January and the Commons votes in favour of a 12 December election, Johnson will use what’s known as a proclamation power to shift the date to early February - thereby crashing the UK out of the EU with no-deal. Last night respected Labour Chief Whip Nick Brown emailed his party’s MPs to advise that he expected them to abstain but they could vote against the General Election motion if they so wished. With the SNP and Liberal Democrats also pledging to oppose, that would leave Johnson well short of the 434 votes he needs. But Corbyn is yet to fully rule out supporting Johnson’s wheeze. A final decision may come as late as Monday.   

Meanwhile in America…

It’s been another “challenging” week for the Leader of the Free World. After almost universal condemnation, he U-turned on his pledge to hold the next G7 summit at one his Florida golf resorts. He said in a tweet, “the hostile media and their Democrat partners went CRAZY!" Next, the US envoy to Ukraine told the ongoing impeachment inquiry that Trump had made release of military aid to Ukraine conditional on a probe into the business dealings of his political rival Joe Biden. This included a requirement for Ukrainian President Volodymr Zielinski to deliver “a public statement about ordering such investigations.” And third, the White House confirmed that Trump had been complicit in Republicans forcing their way into the very same inquiry, leading to a witness having to delay her testimony by five hours.

As the impeachment net closes in, Trump’s lawyer claimed in court that his client could avoid conviction for any crime for as long as he remains in the White House. Asked by the judge if he agreed with Trump that he could not be investigated even if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, William Consovoy responded: “That is correct.” And that might explain why, according to a new CNN poll, half of all Americans now believe their President should be removed from office.  

Enjoy your weekend!

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss