“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 65, 3rd May 2019

Silly Willy

It’s been a trying week for both the Conservative Government and the Labour Party, and it’s not over yet. The big story in Westminster has been the brutal dismissal of Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary. Previously seen as a close ally of Prime Minister Theresa May, the former Chief Whip and Parliamentary aide to David Cameron (remember him?) was removed for allegedly divulging details of a top-secret National Security Council meeting. In an uncharacteristically terse letter, Mrs May told her former leadership campaign manager she had become “concerned by the manner” he engaged with the leak investigation. She continued: “It is therefore with great sadness I have concluded that I can no longer have full confidence in you as Secretary of State for Defence and a Minister in my Cabinet and ask you to leave Her Majesty’s Government.”  

Mr Williamson’s response was to deny everything whilst swearing “on his children’s lives” - which is not a good look. Two questions remain. First, whether he will face criminal charges for breaching the Official Secrets Act.  Second, and much more likely, if he will seek some kind of personal revenge on his former boss. Opportunistic Tory Brexiteers are already queuing up to offer willing assistance.  

A shared challenge for the Conservatives and Labour is how to deal with the fallout from today’s local election results. As I write, the Tories have already lost more than 800 council seats with Labour down almost 100. With these seats last fought on the same day as the 2015 General Election which David Cameron’s Conservatives (yes, him again) won with a clear majority, they were always likely to fare poorly today. However, one of the golden rules of UK politics is that the principal Opposition Party – if it wishes to be viewed as a Government in waiting - must do well at local elections. That is certainly not the case today, with Labour haemorrhaging seats across many of its former heartlands in the North and Midlands.  

As I previewed last week, the Party’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) met on Tuesday to discuss whether to incorporate a People’s Vote on any Brexit deal into its European elections manifesto. Committed Leaver Jeremy Corbyn won the battle, with the NEC choosing only to endorse a referendum on a so-called “Tory Brexit deal.” But with the vast majority of Labour MPs, MEPs, members and supporters strongly pro-Remain, today’s poor local election results will ensure that the internal war is far from over. And remember, neither Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party nor Change UK - led by the newly-formed Independent Group of MPs who oppose Brexit - were standing in the council polls. Both will field full slates of candidates on 23 May when the outcome is almost certain to be considerably worse for Labour and the Tories.  

Unaccustomed as she is  

In the midst of electioneering, Conservative-Labour efforts to find a key to the Brexit lock have continued almost unnoticed this week. And, believe it or not, there are whispers of a breakthrough. Any cross-party solution was always going to depend on Theresa May’s willingness to drop her opposition to the UK entering a customs union after Brexit. If the latest rumours are to be believed, the Prime Minister is seemingly on the verge of agreeing to a “customs arrangement” with the EU in return for Labour MPs supporting her Brexit deal in Parliament. She would also ask Brussels to allow the UK to negotiate limited trade deals with non-EU countries, although most likely only on services such as banking and insurance.  

Despite the European elections costing the UK taxpayer an estimated ￡108 million to stage, Mrs May remains determined that British MEPs will not take their seats in Strasbourg on 1 July. That will require a Brexit deal and accompanying legislation to receive Parliament’s approval by 30 June which, according to her calculations, demands a cross-party deal by this time next week. I’ll let you know what happens.    

Meanwhile in America… 

Donald Trump reached another milestone of absurdity this week when the Washington Post revealed had made more than 10,000 false or misleading statements in his first 827 days in office. The respected newspaper’s Fact Checker team also found that the pace of untruths is quickening by the day. Over the last seven months, Trump’s fib-rate was three times higher than in his first 600 days in the White House. Indeed, during a three-day period last week, he managed 171 false or misleading claims which equates to 57 untruths a day. And that’s no lie. 

We’re entering a Bank Holiday weekend in the UK, but I am about to clamber onboard a plane bound for Australia to visit sites we have just taken over in Rockhampton and Biloela. I will also be holding meetings in Wagga Wagga and Sydney. Catching up with Eville & Jones colleagues old and new is always a pleasure, never a chore. I am hugely looking forward to the trip. 

Have an excellent few days!

Jason 

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss