“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 49, 11th January 2019

PM Labours to the finish line 

There are just 77 days to go before the UK leaves the EU, and desperate times call for desperates measures. With a heavy dose of humility, I gently point out that the scenario I raised last week is now playing out. If you recall, I speculated that the fate of Theresa May and her Brexit deal would ultimately depend on the willingness of Labour MPs to support her plans. And over the last few days, that political reality has finally dawned on the Prime Minister.    

Why she has waited so long to try to win them over is beyond me, other than the fact that she gave a commitment to fellow Conservative colleagues that she would not rely on Labour votes. (She also promised them that under no circumstances would she call a General Election in 2017, and we all know how that turned out).  

Opening the rebooted Brexit “meaningful vote” debate on Wednesday, Labour’s Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer complained about an absence of contact from Government Ministers in pursuit of reaching a compromise Brexit arrangement. His comments were immediately seized upon by Tory grandees Sir Oliver Letwin and Ken Clarke who offered to work with Starmer to make him happy. Both Letwn and Clarke support Mrs May’s deal.  

Earlier in the week, the Prime Minister met more than 100 Opposition MPs to seek to assauge their concerns about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. (The subtext being that this could be avoided if they backed her deal).  

And yesterday, Mrs May took the unprecedented step (for her) of telephoning the bosses of the country’s two biggest trade unions to request their endorsement. This related directly to an attempt from a group of Labour MPs to obtain UK Government guarantees for workers’ rights after Brexit, in return for which they could commit to support her Brexit deal. Crucially, the latter would not have to be amended – which would cause problems with the EU27 - as the House of Commons could enact the requested safeguards into UK law.   

Where does all of this leave us? I remain wedded to my prediction that Mrs May’s will get her deal through, but not on Tuesday when MPs have their first oppotunity to vote on it.  (They have to have their “tut-tut” moment). The Government will then have until the following Monday (but will probably move quicker) to bring forward “Plan B” which will most likely look exactly like “Plan A”, albeit with a couple of Post-It notes from Brussels attached saying that the EU dislikes the Irish backstop every bit as much as the UK. It promises to be another pivotal period, hopefully with the promise of stability one day soon.   

Good vets come to those who wait

I was in London yesterday for the Worshipful Company of Butchers Court Lunch at the magnificent and recently-completed Leathersellers’ Hall. As one might expect, the subject of Brexit was never far from conversation with the mood typically upbeat despite the challenges facing the food and agricultural sectors. And from a veterinary perspective, I was delighted to report some positive news.   

It came in reply to a Parliamentary Written Question from Dr David Drew, the Shadow Minister for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, who I held a particularly constructive meeting with in Westminster last year. Dr Drew raised a point I have put to Ministers numerous times publicly and privately over the last 12 months, namely if the Government “will include veterinary surgeons in its proposals to remove the cap on the number of non-UK skilled workers” after Brexit. Responding, Home Office Minister Caroline Nokes was uncharacteristically frank: “The Government accepts the Migration Advisory Committee’s recommendation that the skilled migration route in the future system, which will encompass veterinary surgeons, should not be subject to a cap.” And not before time! Be assured that complacency will not afflict your correspondent until this hard-won commitment is enacted.  

Meanwhile in America… 

Tomorrow, the US partial government shutdown becomes the longest in the nation’s history. It is a record that few Presidents would crave, but expect Donald Trump to be beaming with pride. The crisis was triggered by his demand for Congress to stump up billion of dollars for a border wall that most Americans believe is a waste of taxpayers’ money. But Donald says he wants a wall so Donald thinks he should have a wall, leaving an estimated 800,000 federal employees unpaid for almost a month.      

Keen to lighten the mood, this week satirical news programme “The Daily Show” unearthed old video footage which showed that the US President was not always so keen on the merits of a “big, beautiful concrete wall.”  Addressing graduates of Wagner College in 2004, the then real estate magnate proclaimed: “Don’t give up! Don’t allow it to happen! If there’s a concrete wall in front of you, go through it, go over it, go around it, but get to the other side of that wall!”  No doubt the “millions” of immigrants and terrorists Trump claims are currently attempting to enter America illegally would take encouragement from his words. If they actually existed. 

Have a wonderful weekend. 

Jason 

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director