“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 43, 30th November 2018

Myths and legends

There is old myth in British politics that Conservative MPs represent “the most sophisticated electorate in the world.”  I’ve never subscribed to this view and, having consulted a thesaurus to confirm that “sophisticated” is not a synonym for “treacherous,” I remain wedded to my belief.  

At times of internal Tory strife, I am reminded of political events gone by. I think of former Prime Minister John Major who struggled but ultimately succeeded in piloting the Maastricht Treaty through the House of Commons despite the best efforts of three unprincipled “bastards” in Cabinet. At the height of his troubles, Mr Major went to Japan and was recorded describing one rebel MP as "three apples short of a picnic" and observing of another: "Every time I hear his name I think of flapping white coats." I also recall the fate of his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, who travelled to Paris in the middle of a Conservative Party leadership election and returned to find that her Cabinet had turned on her. She left office just days later.  

I mention these episodes because the current Tory occupant of 10 Downing Street has arrived in Argentina to join 18 other world leaders at the G20 Summit. (German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be late after her plane broke down). As Theresa May touched down, one well-sourced news outlet back in Britain claimed that the number of Conservative MPs now opposed to her Brexit deal had reached 100. The long-awaited “meaningful vote” on the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration will take place on 11 December following five days of Parliamentary debate. Few commentators think she can win this and their thoughts have already turned to what happens next. 

I still believe that it is not impossible for the Prime Minister to get her deal through. Or, failing that, a version that’s very close to it. Last night a cross-party amendment to the Government’s Brexit motion was tabled. It calls on Parliament to reject Mrs May’s deal but also a no-deal outcome. The motion also creates an opportunity for MPs to agree an alternative way forward. This could include a second referendum, which the Prime Minister is vehemently opposed to. But it also has the potential to build a path to a Norway-style deal, which I have long believed is the most likely “landing space” for a post-Brexit UK. In the meantime, the sooner Mrs May gets back from Argentina to talk Conservative colleagues out of treachery, the better her chances of success will be.   

To Oz and back 

The Government’s Immigration White Paper, expected to be published this week, has been delayed yet again after rows between Cabinet Ministers over business access to low-skilled foreign workers. It now seems unlikely to appear in advance of the “meaningful vote,” which was not part of the Prime Minister’s plan. 

I’ve just returned from Australia, which is always a pleasure to visit but a long way to go to be reminded of how damaging a post-Brexit trade deal with our friends Down Under is likely to be for UK agriculture.  In times like this, I hope I can be forgiven for feeling nostalgic, which is why I am so looking forward to this evening’s Bradford Textile Society 125th Anniversary Dinner, celebrating the rich history of the oldest textile society in Britain - and far beyond. It is often forgotten that Bradford was a boomtown of the Industrial Revolution and the undisputed wool capital of the world. The number of mills has diminished over time, but there are still local firms – staffed by multi-national, multi-cultural workforces – that manufacture some of the finest textile products available. It will indeed be a joy to toast a great city’s proud heritage.    

Earlier today, I was also delighted to be part of a special plaque unveiling ceremony - organised by York Civic Trust and the Knights of St Columba - at Clifford’s Tower in York in memory of Robert Aske, the Yorkshire lawyer who led a rebellion against Henry VIII in 1536. It is a too little-known fact that Henry VIII was the original Brexiteer after breaking with the Catholic Church. The term “Henry VII powers” lives on with modern day British Governments retaining the ability to change or repeal laws without the need for Parliamentary scrutiny – effectively usurping the democratic will of the people. But our need to comply with EU laws has thankfully made this more difficult. The removal of this protective cloak is yet another reason why Brexit is a such bad idea. The Bishop of Middlesbrough, the Rt Rev Terence Drainey, honoured Robert Aske this morning at the place where was executed for treason in 1537. It was a privilege to be involved. 

Meanwhile in Argentina… 

One of the focal points of the two-day G20 gathering in Buenos Aires was to be the US President’s meeting with Vladimir Putin. But yesterday, less than an hour after telling reporters that it was "a very good time to have a meeting" with his Russian counterpart, Trump cancelled it by tweet – blaming ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine. Back on Planet Truth, no one was in any doubt that the real reason was the admission by his former lawyer Michael Cohen that he had lied to Congress about the President’s business activities in Russia to protect his boss. Serial liar Trump responded by branding convicted liar Cohen of being a liar. And that’s no lie. Earlier in the week, the President told a rally of supporters in Mississippi that, other than his “blonde” hair, he had often been compared to Elvis Presley, adding, "I take it as a great compliment." I’m not sure The King of Rock ‘n’ Roll would feel similarly. 

I wish you a fine weekend.     

Jason 

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director