“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 40, 9th November 2018

Brexit deal may be DUP-ed

Buon pomeriggio from the wonderful city of Rome, where I am attending the Federation of Veterinarians of Europe (FVE) General Assembly. Yesterday, I was equally thrilled to be present at a similar gathering of the Union of European Veterinary Hygienists (UEVH). And last weekend I had an illuminating time at the Veterinary Public Health Association (VPHA) and Association of Government Vets (AGV) Autumn Conference in Leicestershire.  From my many conversations at all three events, I can confirm that the mood amongst professional colleagues remains steadfast despite the challenges that the ongoing Brexit mess has presented us.   

Last week I reported on seven days of relative calm. But now it really does feel like “le crunch” has finally arrived. Briefly, the UK Cabinet met on Tuesday but no new negotiating position was approved. Cabinet members returned to Downing Street on Wednesday to read copies of a “draft withdrawal agreement.” However, the section on the Irish border was omitted, rendering the exercise pointless. And this morning, the arguments on this issue have suddenly become a lot more heated – and potentially toxic for Theresa May.

London’s offer of a temporary UK-wide “customs arrangement” or “backstop” with the EU remains in play. But two aspects of this are the source of growing angst for Brexiteers. First, they’re concerned that entering into such an agreement without the UK having the unilateral right to withdraw will lead to what’s become known as a ”Hotel California Brexit” where Britain “checks in but never leaves.” (You can blame US rock band The Eagles/bored journalists for that line). In theory, a permanent replacement to avoid a hard Irish border would be introduced as soon as a technological solution is found. However, despite pre-referendum promises to the contrary from Leave campaigners, it has been argued that unicorns will roam amongst us before that happens. And with the EU having no obvious incentive to release the UK from its customs obligations, Britain could remain in the “temporary” arrangement in perpetuity. Negotiators are therefore attempting to work out a remit for an independent “arbitrary body” to adjudicate on when the UK would be free to go. The Brexiteers hate this idea, citing a dilution of sovereignty, and instead want an end date inserted into any Brexit deal.      

The second major worry over the “backstop” arrangement relates to Northern Ireland and what Brexiteers regard as the danger to the Union of Ulster being treated differently to Great Britain. In a letter to Arlene Foster, the Leader of the DUP whose 10 votes are keeping the Conservative Government in power, the Prime Minister has stated: “The EU…wants to maintain a Northern Ireland-only ‘backstop to the backstop’ in case the future negotiations are unsuccessful. I am clear that I could not accept there being any circumstances or conditions in which that ‘backstop to the backstop,’ which would break up the UK customs territory, could come in to force.” These words appear reassuring to the DUP - but that is not how Mrs Foster and her MPs have interpreted them. Instead, they fear the fallback position that Mrs May agreed with the EU last December – whereby, if all else fails, Northern Ireland will essentially remain in the EU Customs Union and Single Market in order to avoid a hard border – will come to pass. The DUP Leader told The Times: “The Prime Minister’s letter raises alarm bells for those who value the integrity of our precious Union.” Mrs Forster’s Brexit spokesman went further, accusing Mrs May of a “total betrayal” and claiming that she had broken “promises she made.” Needless to say, this represents a major problem for the Prime Minister because, without the DUP’s support, she seems unlikely to get any Brexit deal through Parliament – and will most likely lose her job.  

Dates for your diary

Despite all of this, preparations for all 28 EU Leaders to rubber stamp an EU-UK withdrawal agreement and accompanying “political declaration” (which sketches out what a future trade deal may look like) continue apace. That’s because of a deepening belief that Mrs May’s failure to get Parliament’s approval for a Brexit deal before Christmas will mean that we truly are heading for a no-deal outcome, for which an avalanche of new plans will be required. Optimistic officials in London and Brussels are therefore planning for the following timetable of events. The UK Cabinet to meet on Monday (yes, in three days’ time) to approve a full draft withdrawal agreement. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab goes to Brussels on Tuesday for a “grip and grin” public handshake with EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier. Theresa May delivers a statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday, announcing that the UK has signalled its assent to the draft terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. An emergency meeting of EU Leaders takes place in Brussels on the weekend of 26/27 November to discuss further, before final approval at the European Council summit on 13/14 December. Finally, the House of Commons holds its “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal on either 20 or 21 December. Will it all play out like this? Probably not – but I’ll let you know.     

Meanwhile in America… 

Donald Trump’s Republican Party lost 29 seats in the House of Representatives and overall control of Congress this week, enabling the President to declare the US midterm elections as a “tremendous success.” The Washington Post found that in the first nine months of his presidency, Trump made 1,318 false or misleading claims, an average of five a day. But in the seven weeks leading up the midterms, the President upped his game by making 1,419 false or misleading claims — an average of 30 a day. He must be exhausted.  

Have an excellent weekend.     

Jason 

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director