“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 28, 17th August 2018

Poll shows that Brexit sands are shifting

A major analysis of the current public mood on Brexit published this week revealed that most Parliamentary seats in Britain now have a majority of voters who want the country to stay in the European Union.

Consumer analytics company Focaldata modelled two YouGov polls totalling more than 15,000 people. The technique used, known as MRP, is widely believed to deliver more accurate assessments of public opinion than traditional methods used by market research agencies. The study found that 112 constituencies that voted Leave in the EU referendum have since switched their support to Remain. They include the seats currently held by leading Tory Leave campaigners Michael Gove in Surrey Heath and Boris Johnson in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. No constituencies saw a switch from Remain to Leave.

The drift away from Brexit is even more pronounced in the North of England and Wales, both regarded as traditional Labour Party heartlands. For example, support for Remain in Liverpool Walton has risen from 46.2% to 60.5%, in Knowsley from 47.6% to 61%, and in Swansea East from 37.9% to 50.7%.

According to the overall analysis, 53% of voters in England, Scotland and Wales support Remain, six points ahead of Leave on 47%. The survey did not include Northern Ireland where 56% of residents voted Remain in June 2016 against 44% who chose Leave. Polls indicate that this gap has widened significantly in the Province since then, with one recent report concluding that support for Remain now stands at a whopping 69%.

Responding to the findings, Eloise Todd, chief executive of respected campaign group Best for Britain, warned that politicians risk “falling behind” if they did not respond positively to the clear shift in public opinion. She said: “Westminster should legislate for a people’s vote on the Brexit terms, giving the public the option to stay and build our future on our current deal with the EU.” Predictably, hardline Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg maintained his recent habit of only welcoming news that supports his anti-Brussels political rhetoric, saying: "Most of the polls said people would vote to Remain in the EU in 2016, but when people got to the ballot booth they voted to Leave."

Personally, I much prefer the Jacob Rees-Mogg of 2011 when he spoke in a debate on then Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to recast Britain’s terms of membership with the EU. He told the House of Commons: “We could have two referendums. As it happens, it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.” Indeed so, Jacob. I’m ready when you are.

What a mess

As the Brexit temperature rises here in Britain, elsewhere the work to agree something akin to a workable EU-UK withdrawal agreement continues. In Brussels, negotiators from both sides have entered a second consecutive day of talks. Yesterday’s discussions focussed on breaking the deadlock on the Irish border with little progress reported. Today the somewhat broader issue of “future relations” heads the agenda.

And UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is still building up his airmiles with a grand tour of EU member states. Yesterday he was in the Netherlands where he took the opportunity to warn of the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. Such an outcome, he said, “would be a mistake that we would regret for generations if we were to have a messy ugly divorce and that’s what we all want to avoid."

This morning, Mr Hunt felt the need to “clarify” his comments, writing on Twitter that Britain "would survive and prosper" if faced with crashing out of the EU without a withdrawal agreement, adding that this would be a "big mistake for Europe." But his true sentiments were already clear. Having already visited Latvia and Denmark earlier in the week, I hope the Foreign Secretary is planning a nice staycation before MPs return to Parliament next month.

Meanwhile in America…

On a day when his former campaign manager is facing more than 300 years in jail on 18 counts of alleged tax evasion, bank fraud and hiding foreign bank accounts, Donald Trump’s mind is already elsewhere after his plans to host “the greatest ever military parade” through the streets of Washington DC were abruptly shelved. The US President was famously impressed by France’s Bastille Day parade when visiting Paris in 2017 and pledged that America could “top it.” It has not gone unnoticed that North Korean dictator King Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly host similarly spectacular displays of military strength.

Unfortunately for Mr Trump, the disclosure that his procession was set to cost at least $90million – more than three times the original estimate – led to the wheels coming off. This was despite a commitment not to use tanks “so as not to damage the roads of the nation's capital.” Perhaps he can redirect the money saved towards the building his mythical border wall. That would leave him with just another $32,910,000,000 left to find.

Have a first-class weekend.

Jason

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director