“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 2, 16th February 2018

With thanks

Thank you for the positive comments in response to last week’s first edition of Brexit Brief. I’m pleased that so many of you found it useful.

I look forward to attempting to make sense of this most “interesting” political period as the clock ticks down on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union.

Boris paints a picture

This week has given the Brexit train some time to rest its wheels as British MPs headed home to their constituencies for a short Parliamentary recess. But do not fear, they are due to return to Westminster on Tuesday.

If ever there was a man to fill a vacuum, it’s Boris Johnson. He’s the UK Foreign Secretary. No, he really is.  He used to be the Mayor of London. Honestly.

For reasons best known to someone in Downing Street, the coming weeks will enable us to enjoy a parade of senior Cabinet ministers setting out what they think a good Brexit deal for Britain might look like. 

This is in direct contradiction to the normal UK Government convention of all ministers supporting an agreed public position on important policy matters but, as I say, we do live in “interesting” times.    

Boris was first to have his turn on Wednesday having drawn either the long or short straw. And needless to say, his contribution did not go down well with everyone.

On becoming London Mayor, Boris was famously described as the “Heineken politician” because of his ability to “refresh the parts other can’t reach.”  I’ve never been a huge consumer of Heineken, but I am an even less enthusiastic fan of Marmite which, according to the marketing, people either love or hate. The fact that Boris’s nickname is now evolved into the “Marmite politician” tells you a lot about how Brexit has since divided opinion about him.    

In his remarks, Mr Johnson tried very hard to sell a “positive case for Brexit,” describing it as “not grounds for fear but hope." He said that during the “transition period” immediately after the UK leaves in March 2019, “things would remain as they are." And he hinted that many EU rules would also stay in place even after transition.

However, when pressed by a journalist to rule out resigning as Foreign Secretary if the UK did not obtain a Brexit deal “hard” enough for his liking, he refused to do so.

His speech also did little to reassure ardent Remainers such as his Conservative Party adversary (and probable Marmite hater) Anna Soubry who said that his “vague words” would “drive many to despair.”    

Oh l'amour

Meanwhile back in continental Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron’s spokesperson said it was important that the EU did not “humiliate” the UK in Brexit negotiations

Benjamin Griveaux told the Daily Telegraph on Tuesday that there was "no question of punishing anyone with regards to Brexit.” He added: "That would be the worst thing that could happen and I think it would reinforce the anti-European sentiment in many countries.”

His words were reinforced yesterday when it emerged that EU diplomats had removed a so-called "punishment clause" from a draft report outlining arrangements for the UK’s post-Brexit transition period.

A footnote in the document published last week by the European Commission suggested that the UK would lose access to elements of the single market if it broke EU rules during the transition phase. But officials have now promised new wording that makes reference to the EU's standard infringement procedures.

So, we can all sleep a little bit sounder for a little bit longer. 

Meanwhile in America…

On occasions when it all gets a bit serious on this side of the Atlantic Ocean, we can always depend on the US President to lighten the mood.     

This week Donald Trump continued to deny any Russian involvement in his election to the White House in 2016. And once again this view was found to be in a minority of one when, on a single afternoon, his three most senior intelligence chiefs said the opposite.

Appearing before a panel of Senators, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, CIA Director Mike Pompeo and FBI Director Chris Wray all testified that they supported the intelligence community's January 2017 assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

I mean, what would they know?!

Enjoy your weekend.

Jason

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director