“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 16, 25th May 2018

Cake news

Boris Johnson, still somehow the British Foreign Secretary, is regularly and proudly quoted as “pro having my cake and pro eating it” when it comes to his vision of the UK’s relationship with the EU after Brexit. According to BoJo and his band of Brexiteers, there is no reason why Britain can’t enjoy all the current benefits of EU membership whilst retaining the freedom to strike trade deals with other countries around the world.

This view has been ridiculed by many wise heads including Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who memorably questioned Brexit’s capacity to create “a land of cake and consumption.” And yesterday the EU’s patience finally snapped in an off-the-record press briefing organised by Brussels’ Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier.

“I'm a bit concerned because the precondition for fruitful discussions has to be the UK accepts the consequences of its own choices," the unnamed spokesperson said after three days of discussions with UK officials, possibly over cake. "The sooner we move beyond 'let's just keep everything we have now'… the sooner we move away from this fantasy, then the quicker we can make progress." The mystery monsieur added that "we are running out of time" and that there had been no meeting of minds on the "crunch items" of the Irish border and an agreed Customs and Regulatory Alignment Period (CRAP for short).

Another prick was administered to the Brexiteer balloon this week when Jon Thompson, head of Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, answered MPs’ questions on the likely costs to business of the “max fac” customs option favoured by Leavers. A quick bit of mental arithmetic (he is a numbers man, after all) brought Mr T to a figure of “between ￡17 billion and ￡20 billion” in extra paperwork and other expenses. Every year. This is around double the UK's annual net contribution to the EU. Leading pro-Brexit Tory MP John Redwood, watching on, quickly turned pale. Given that one of the Leave campaign’s key promises was that Brexit would cut red tape and slash business costs, one can easily imagine why.

Mr Whippy on the war path

Amid the chaos, I bring news of even greater chaos ahead. In recent weeks I have dutifully reported on progress of the EU (Withdrawal) Bill – which paves the way for Brexit – through both Houses of the UK Parliament. When we left the story, their Lordships had made 15 amendments to the legislation – including the removal of the date when Britain would leave the EU and the inclusion of a commitment to stay in the Single Market – and we awaited an indication of when MPs would get to vote on these changes.

It now seems that the big moment will come in the middle of next month after Government Chief Whip Julian Smith informed his Tory troops that all leave planned for June was now cancelled and they would be instructed to oppose all 15 Lords amendments. This announcement was not received entirely favourably by Conservative Remainer MPs, some of whom later voiced creative suggestions on where Big Chief Julian could pitch his wigwam. Given that with the support of Opposition parties it would only require 13 Tory rebels to pass any of their Lordships’ changes, softly-softly might be a wiser tactic from Government Whips than shouty-shouty. But it might be a little too late given the scale of division now opening up in Conservative ranks.

Meanwhile in America…

Last weekend the eyes of the world were fixed on Windsor as Prince Harry and Meghan Markle declared their devotion for one another to the sound of loud cheers and clicking cameras. Back in Washington DC, one could be certain that Donald Trump was foaming with envy. No man demands to be adored more than the US President and, until yesterday, he had his own high-profile love-in to look forward to in the form of his impending summit with North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un. And then he cancelled it after a North Korean official called his buddy/Vice President Mike Pence a “stupid dummy.” In his break-up letter to Kim, Trump began by puffing himself up, writing: “You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful." But as his anger changed to sorrow – a common symptom of heartbreak - he changed tack and grovelled incoherently: “If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write.”

Tragically for Donald, the end of his bromance was not the only love challenge he faced this week. Welcoming his beleaguered wife Melania back from hospital following treatment for a kidney condition, the President tweeted: “Great to have our incredible First Lady back home in the White House. Melanie is feeling and doing very well.” Whoops.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday weekend.

Jason

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director