“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 15, 18th May 2018

Max fac stinks  

Another week and still no decision from the British Government on what post-Brexit UK customs arrangements might look like. It reminds me of one of those old-fashioned television game shows where the unfortunate contestants know the “star prize” is going to be awful but still have to play along.  

In my last update, I sought to explain that the current battle is between Prime Minister Theresa May’s “customs partnership” – where the UK collects EU import tariffs – and Michael Gove et al’s “max fac” which no one really understands but relies on border technology which only seems to exist on Planet Brexit.  

At least this week we had (almost) universal agreement on something. (Nearly) everyone now seems to be of the view that we should all wait a bit longer. At a meeting of the Cabinet’s mystical Brexit Sub-Committee, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove agreed that the UK should stay in the EU Customs Union for an unspecified duration beyond the end of the “transition period” in 2020.   

The Remainers’ motivation for accepting this is because of the “unspecified” aspect i.e. it could last forever. The Brextieers’ willingness may have been triggered by the colourful comments of Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. A sensible fellow, he is no admirer of “max fac” and is even less enamoured by the prospect of a hard Irish border. He told a startled Irish Parliament on Wednesday: “I believe the customs partnership is closer to being made workable than max fac which…I had thought was some form of make-up or deodorant. I have certainly not seen to date any detail that indicates that such a solution would be as functional as make-up or a deodorant.”

One area where the Remainers and Brexiteers are well-matched is in the use of caustic language. Step forward Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg who, unlike many Leave comrades, has no time for continued UK membership of the Customs Union. A proud Roman Catholic, he spat: “The horizon seems to be unreachable. The bottom of the rainbow seems to be unattainable. People voted to leave, they did not vote for a perpetual purgatory.” 

With the June summit of EU leaders getting now less than six weeks away, UK politicians may soon be forced to choose between their versions of heaven and hell. But there again they might not. 

Lording it up    

Over recent weeks I have reported on the noble efforts of Lords and Ladies in dismembering the EU (Withdrawal) Bill with a view to delivering a soft Brexit or, even better, no Brexit at all. This week their Lordships forced a fifteenth humiliation on the Government when voting through an amendment which would compel the UK to maintain EU environmental protections after Brexit (if there is one).  

It was their final act for now with all changes having to be approved or rejected by the Commons in a series of votes next month. As I mentioned previously, any amendments that MPs disapprove of will be returned to the Lords to reconsider. However, a major problem for Theresa May is that there are not enough Conservative peers to give the Government a majority. So, what to do? Easy – appoint some more! It seems likely that a list of new appointments is imminent and could appear as soon as tomorrow (to clash with the Royal wedding so no one notices). It is a wheeze practised by many British Prime Ministers down the years. But it is doubtful that many peers have entered the House at a time when the political stakes are so high. Let’s hope that the newbies are as farsighted as the incumbents. 

Meanwhile in America…

Last week I referred to President Trump’s excitement over his “highly anticipated meeting” with North Korean dictator/new best friend Kim Jong-un. Seven days on, it seems that the bromance may already be on the rocks. Rather than seek to protect whatever gains he felt he had in advance of next month’s planned get together in Singapore, Donald did something a tad silly. He gave the go-ahead to joint US-South Korean military exercises close to the North Korean border.  

Whether Kim’s annoyance was real or manufactured, it is impossible to tell. But his immediate response was to call off high-level peace talks with South Korea and threaten to cancel the summit with the US President – throwing Trump into a state of near panic. "Nothing has changed on North Korea that we know of. We have not been told anything,” Donald barked to reporters whilst trying to appear calm. What happens next is very much in the hands of the dictator he previously referred to as “Little Rocket Man.” And once again, we can underline diplomacy as one of “many talents” that President Trump claims to have but no one else can see.    

Enjoy your weekend. 

Jason 

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director