“BREXIT BRIEF” – ISSUE 14, 11th May 2018

Brexit: The Game

Last week it seemed that Theresa May’s plan for a post-Brexit “customs partnership” - in which the UK would collect import tariffs on the EU’s behalf - looked to be as dead as the parrot in that famous Monty Python sketch. Well, hopefully with the professional assistance of a well-trained foreign vet, it is possible that the bird will be resuscitated. 

On Wednesday, the Prime Minister received welcome support from her Irish counterpart Leo Varadker who has a vested interest given the threat of a hard border should no customs solution be found. It is also rumoured that Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, who last week was opposed to a customs partnership, is prepared to change sides and support the Prime Minister’s position.  

These developments have led to a coterie of leading Tories advancing yet another idea to solve the “customs conundrum” (a phrase I’ve just thought of and already look upon with fondness). This plan has the less than catchy title of “max fac” and centres on London asking Brussels to extend the transition period – when the UK has left the EU but is still bound by its rules - from the end of 2020 until 2023. The delay is to allow more time for the technology to be invented to enable goods to be monitored without the need for a hard Irish border. But who is to say that it will be created by 2023? Certainly not Labour MP Owen Smith who tweeted: “Brexiteers admit that their technical max fac solution on customs is about as likely as a unicorn winning the 3.15 at Aintree.” As a vet, that suggests to me that a positive outcome is unlikely.  

And now for the best bit. It has emerged this morning that the dispute will be settled with a game (I’m not making this up). Theresa May has decided to split the Cabinet into two groups. One - led by pro-Brexit International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, fellow Brexiteer Michael Gove and pro-Remain Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington - will examine the customs partnership proposal. The other – fronted by Business Secretary Greg Clark, Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley (both Remainers) and pro-Leave Brexit Secretary David Davis will use their flipchart and coloured pens to illustrate max fac. Given that none of these individuals are likely to change their minds, it may be that Rock-Paper-Scissors will be used as a tie-breaker.  

Ping pong anyone?    

 I am delighted to report that their Lordships have continued to inflict torment upon the Government’s business managers by systematically stripping the EU (Withdrawal) Bill of clauses which might make snarling Brexiteers smile. This week, peers removed 29th March 2019 as the date when Brexit is supposed to happen, compelled the UK to remain a member of a range of EU agencies if it ever does happen and insisted that Britain effectively stays in the Single Market in all circumstances – removing any reason for it to happen at all.  

The Bill is due to complete its journey through the House of Lords on Wednesday. It will then return to the Commons – probably next month - where MPs will be asked to accept or reject a total of 14 changes. Any that are opposed will be sent back with a request to think again but peers are entitled to say “not content” and return the legislation to MPs in a procedure known as Parliamentary ping pong. Let’s hope their Lordships have enough balls to win what could be a protracted game.     

Meanwhile in America…

“It’s very early in the morning. I think we probably broke the all-time [record] in [the] history of television ratings for three o'clock in the morning! That I would say.” Indeed he would. Those were the words uttered by Donald Trump to three American detainees as he welcomed them home from detention in North Korea yesterday. The men had been released by North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un as a goodwill gesture in advance of next month’s “highly anticipated meeting” (? Donald J. Trump) between himself and the US President.  

Trump claims that his motivation in “doing a deal” is to remove North Korea’s nuclear threat. Others believe that his real intention is to be seen to outdo his predecessor Barack Obama whose legacy Trump is determined to shred. This view was backed up on Tuesday by the President’s unilateral decision to pull America out of the Iran nuclear deal which was regarded as the greatest achievement of the Obama White House. Whatever the truth of it, Trump’s tactics appear to be working with his personal approval ratings now climbing by the day. Still, a day is a very long time in Trumpworld.   

I wish you a pleasant weekend. 

Jason 

Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director