‘Brexit Brief’ – ISSUE 110, 13th March 2020

And the Brexit band played on 

The coronavirus outbreak may have led some to believe that Brexit has gone away. Sadly, that is not the case. The second round of UK-EU future relationship talks were due to get underway in London next Wednesday and last for three days. Understandably, the logic of transporting more than 100 trade negotiators across the Channel from all parts of Europe was deemed inappropriate and face-to-face discussions will not now be held.  A joint statement said yesterday: “Given the latest COVID-19 developments, UK and EU negotiators have today decided not to hold next week’s round of negotiations in London in the form originally scheduled.” However, other forms of engagement – such as video conferencing - are now being explored. The plan had been for the two sides to complete five separate rounds of talks by the middle of May in advance a formal UK-EU summit in June, at which point Boris Johnson has already threatened to walk out.   

Of course, given the deep uncertainty around the pace of coronavirus spread and with medical experts divided about how long the disruption to everyday life may last, the logical decision would be for the UK Government to extend the post-Brexit transition phase by at least a year. But no, logic continues to be a stranger to Tory Brexiteers. Asked by MPs if Boris Johnson was now considering an extension to the deadline, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that this was not an option and insisted the UK would stop following all EU rules from 2021. 

“The course is set,” he sniffed, whilst simultaneously attempting to pour himself a glass of water, missing his cup and drenching his mobile phone. “It would be foolish for anyone to imagine the Prime Minister isn’t going to stick to that timetable and stick to that commitment.” So, with so much else for UK citizens and businesses to worry about at the present time, a no-deal Brexit on 31 December 2020 remains firmly on the virus-infected table.  

Whether talks do or do not happen next week, legal texts – which negotiators on both sides will want to form part of any agreement – are likely to be published, with the UK floating the idea of publishing a full draft “take it or leave it” trade deal. In normal circumstances and given its track record thus far, this would not be a surprising tactic from Boris Johnson’s scorched-earth Government. But one might think that he and his Ministers should now be concentrating on helping the people they claim to serve, rather than raising additional fears.     

Fully loaded

Rishi Sunak, appointed UK Chancellor of the Exchequer last month after his predecessor Sajid Javid refused to kowtow to Boris Johnson, delivered his first Budget on Wednesday. And it’s already falling apart. It is nothing new for the smiles of red box-wielding Chancellors to be swiftly removed from their faces once the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a hugely respected independent think tank, has had time to examine the finer details of a Budget. And Mr Sunak’s parade of announcements is no exception. Aside from necessary measures to combat coronavirus, the central plank of the Chancellor’s speech was an eye-watering allocation of ￡600 billion in capital spending over the next five years, together with a 2.8% boost in day-to-day cash for public services. 

But according to the IFS analysis which has just been published, these "genuinely very big" spending commitments appear to be "suspiciously frontloaded" for the next two years. IFS Director Paul Johnson commented: “Take account of the need to replace EU funding, and factor in planned increases for health, schools, defence and overseas aid, and there is relatively little here for other Departments.” The loss of EU funding, which Brexiteers never admit to, is deeply significant. But the frontloading of new, borrowed money is even more alarming. And why are they doing it? Because, despite being serial bluffers, it appears that Boris Johnson and his acolytes are not bluffing about crashing us out of the EU without a safety net at the end of this year.

Meanwhile in America…

"It goes away. It's going away." So said the self-proclaimed stable genius Donald Trump as expert after expert appeared on US cable networks to express their belief that the US President was failing to acknowledge the scale of the coronavirus outbreak across America. And it is not just the medical and scientific professionals who are concerned. Yesterday, the Dow Jones plunged by more than 2,000 points, continuing a week-long drop that has taken it down 30% from its peak. And yet Trump remained defiant, telling reporters: “The stock market is still much higher than when I got here!"

The latest fall was fuelled by Trump’s address to a less than grateful nation on Wednesday evening when he announced a ban on travellers from 26 EU countries entering the US. He described his decision as the "most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history.” Tom Bossert, the President’s former homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, had an alternative view, saying: "There's little value to European travel restrictions. Poor use of time and energy."

In the meantime, there is genuine unease that Trump refuses to have a coronavirus test, despite evidence of him being in contact over recent days – and in some cases shaking hands – with several individuals who have contracted the disease. The US President has had no shortage of shocking weeks since entering the White House, but surely none quite as disturbing as this.   

Have a splendid weekend.

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss