‘Brexit Brief’ – ISSUE 101, 10th January 2020

Fish on a Friday

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal with Brussels, otherwise known as the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, completed its passage through the House of Commons last night by 330 votes to 231. Armed with an 80-seat majority, the now Brexiteer-laden Tory Government resisted all attempts to amend the legislation – I will provide a summary of the sensible measures it chose to reject in a ‘Brexit Made Simple’ next week. The Bill will begin its journey through the House of Lords on Monday and is due to be enacted into UK law the following week. With the approval of the European Parliament a mere formality after that, our departure from the European Union remains on course to happen at 2300 GMT on Friday 31 January.  It is and always will be a tragedy.

But rather than looking back, it is time to look forward – hopefully with a higher degree of honesty from leading Brexiteers than we have seen over the last four years. In her first major speech since replacing Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen made clear this week that she intends to talk truth to power. She told an audience at the London School of Economics, where she once studied, that the negotiations on a future EU-UK trade deal would not be as straightforward as Boris Johnson and Leave campaigners would have people believe.

“With every decision comes a trade-off,” she said. “Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services. Without a level playing field on environment, labour, taxation and state aid, you cannot have the highest quality access to the world's largest single market.” Ms von der Leyen warned that the Prime Minister’s current refusal to extend the transition period beyond the end of this year will require Brussels to “prioritise.” She said: “The European Union's objectives in the negotiation are clear. We will work for solutions that uphold the integrity of the EU, its single market and its customs union. There can be no compromise on this.” And why should there be? After all, the UK foolishly voted to walk away.   

In a Downing Street meeting with Ms von der Leyen later in the day, Boris Johnson said he would insist on “maintaining control of UK fishing waters” after Brexit. But that kite was quickly shot down by the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier. Speaking in Stockholm, he said: “There will be no agreement without global agreement on trade for goods, the level playing field and fisheries. I think I’m clear." With France, Denmark and Holland determined not to sign off any free trade arrangement without significant access to UK fishing waters, and with unanimity from all 27 EU members necessary for any deal to be approved, it seems that the Prime Minister is about to swallow another fishy Leave campaign promise.    

No Gardiner’s Question Time

Nominations for the Labour leadership close on Monday with Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer now well ahead of the field. The Party’s ruling body, the National Executive Committee, met this week to agree the rules of electoral combat. Each prospective candidate will require the support of 22 Labour MPs or MEPs to reach the next stage of the race. (It then gets a bit more complicated, but I’ll guide you through). 

As I write, Sir Keir has secured 64 nominations with Jeremy Corbyn’s preferred candidate, Rebecca Long Bailey, trailing in second with 26. Wigan MP Lisa Nandy, who is viewed by many to have had a particularly impressive start to the race, has 24, with Jess Phillips on 22, Emily Thornberry on 9 and Clive Lewis 4. (Shadow International Trade Secretary and universal figure of fun Barry Gardiner’s brief foray into the contest ended when he failed to attract a single supporter).  The new Leader and Deputy Leader will be unveiled on 4 April. Yes, a mere 12 weeks from now.

Meanwhile in America…

Donald Trump addressed the first of many 2020 campaign rallies last night as the countdown begins to the US Presidential election on Tuesday 3 November. Having given the order for the assassination of Iran’s top military commander Qassem Soleimani, he was feeling rather pleased with himself. "Soleimani was actively planning new attacks,” he told the whooping crowd, “but we stopped him and we stopped him quickly and we stopped him cold!” 

In Trump’s mind, blowing people up confirms him as a man of peace. And not just any man of peace, but the greatest man of peace in the history of the world. So much so that the US President remains irked that he is still to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. And if Donald can’t have the Nobel Peace Prize, then neither should anyone else. This includes Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who received the accolade several weeks ago, although apparently no one told Trump. Addressing his adoring ranks last night, he said: "I made a deal. I saved a country, and I just heard that the head of that country is now getting the Nobel Peace Prize for saving the country. I said, 'What?' Did I have something to do with it? Yeah. But, you know, that's the way it is. As long as we know, it's all that matters."  Indeed so, Mr President, indeed so.

Have a splendid weekend!

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss