‘Brexit Brief’ – ISSUE 100, 3rd January 2020

New Year countdown

Happy New Year and welcome to 2020 which, with Boris Johnson now the most powerful politician in the land, promises to be every bit as fraught for the United Kingdom as 2019 (oh, and 2016, 2017 and 2018). Indeed, without wishing to rain misery on the prospect of 12 months of unadulterated joy, the fact remains that this country will lose its much-cherished membership of the European Union in just four weeks’ time. And I make no apology for feeling not a semblance of joy at that thought.

The European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill - enacting the terms of Johnson’s horrific Brexit deal with Brussels - goes back before MPs next Tuesday for three consecutive days of debate. Labour has tabled an amendment aimed at preventing Johnson from ending the transition period without a free trade agreement with the EU at the end of 2020, as the Prime Minister has threatened to do. The amendment would force the Government to seek a two-year extension unless a trade deal has been finalised by mid-June or Parliament approves an alternative approach. Given the Conservative Government’s now healthy majority in the House of Commons, forced changes to the Bill are unlikely next week. But it could be an altogether different story the following week when the legislation makes the short journey to the House of Lords for the more independently-minded peers to begin their scrutiny. The Tories have no majority there and a few twists and turns could yet lie ahead. Let’s hope so.

The future is Keir

Something that surely all but the most ardent right-wing Conservatives agree on is that we need a more effective Labour Party to hold the new Government to account over the next five years. The Party’s ruling National Executive Committee meets next week to agree the rules of the contest to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Leader. The outcome of this could shape the next five years in UK politics every bit as much as what happens in Downing Street.  In the three weeks since the General Election, all of the signs from Team Corbyn were that they were confident in being able to parachute their preferred candidate, Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long Bailey, into the job. But a YouGov poll of more than 1,000 Labour members published this week showed that this could be more of a challenge than the Corbynistas first thought. 

To their horror (and my delight), Shadow Brexit Secretary and ardent Remainer Sir Keir came out in pole position. A former Director of Public Prosecutions for England and Wales and all-round good egg, the poll said that he would beat Ms Long Bailey by 61% to 39% at the end of a process involving six other likely candidates. (Labour uses the Alternative Vote system in leadership elections, with the votes of the lowest scoring candidates being reallocated over a series of rounds). Speaking yesterday, Sir Keir refused to confirm that he would be standing but gave every indication that he would. He said: “The most important thing is that the Labour Party is rebuilt, we learn the lessons of the last General Election, reflect on them, and address them. But we need the Labour Party as a trusted force for good.” 

His formal announcement is expected in the coming days, joining Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry and Shadow Treasury Minister Clive Lewis as declared candidates. Birmingham Yardley MP Jess Phillips is expected to announce her intention to stand in a speech tonight. Alongside Ms Long Bailey, Party Chairman Ian Lavery, Sheffield City Region Mayor Dan Jarvis, Tottenham MP David Lammy and Wigan MP Lisa Nandy are thought likely to put themselves forward. The winner of the contest – together with a separate election for Deputy Labour Leader – is due to be announced in March.

Meanwhile in America…

The US President subjected his wife Melania to a public dressing down on Tuesday after she answered a reporter’s question about her New Year’s resolution. “Peace on the world,” she responded. “Peace is right!” barked the Commander-in-Chief who last night blew up a convoy carrying a senior Iranian General. “But I’m - I’m not sure you’re supposed to say resolutions out loud, okay?” Few of those watching on felt that the First Lady looked particularly okay.

Her husband, Donald J. Trump, was speaking before entering the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida where guests paid thousands of dollars to see in the New Year in his illustrious presence. The exceptions were the Trump family who were allowed in for free. Unusually, Trump did not find time to play a round of golf that day. (He completed the 238th round of his Presidency 24 hours earlier. The estimated cost of his hobby to the US taxpayer during his almost three years in office is around $115 million and counting). Instead, he flew to the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach where he held a marathon (for him) 45-minute meeting before returning to Mar-a-Lago. Perhaps he was able to charge more for room hire at West Palm Beach.

Have an excellent first weekend of 2020!

Jason

Dr Jason Aldiss BEM

Managing Director, Eville & Jones

You can follow me on Twitter @JasonAldiss