Brexit Blues
I’m feeling very gloomy about Brexit. I am genuinely worried about a No Deal, and the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU. As a historian I try and look to parallels from the past as a guide to the future. Worryingly, the best parallel I can find to the UK’s situation is South Carolina in 1861. And that didn’t end well.
South Carolina seceded from a Union because it objected to what it saw as undemocratic meddling in its peculiar institutions. But I’m much more interested in what happened next. How did the Union react? After all, as Confederate President Jefferson Davis said: "All we ask is to be left alone". Why didn’t they just let them leave?
The reason is that by leaving the Union they threatened the very integrity of that Union. If a State could make demands and then leave when they didn’t get their way then whole system of US government would be made useless. Who would go next if their demands were ignored? Illinois, Michigan?
The political logic was that South Carolina must be punished. She could not be allowed to leave and thrive, because that would set too dangerous a precedent.
Of course I’m not suggesting that the EU will declare war on the UK, or that there is any moral equivalence between the UK’s concerns to protect immigration policy with Southerners concerns to protect slavery. What I am interested in is how do former partners react when you leave a Union?
The answer is that you go from being best friends to enemies, to be threatened and humiliated as a warning to other members not to jump ship. I predict these threats and humiliations will, in turn, be met with Churchillian two-fingers from shocked Brits. They will harden anger with the EU and make a deal much more difficult. In other words Brexit's own political momentum poisons the relationship on both sides.
And as the prospect of doing a deal recedes day by day, the prospect of the UK ending up friendless and adrift increases. Perhaps this is just the low point of the negotiations. Maybe its all a bluff or its just the change of season is making me feel glum. But right now I can’t shake the Brexit blues.
Chief Executive Officer @ Dorhyan.eu | EU fund passporting as a service Mentor to entrepreneurs and emerging fund managers
6 年Well thought article. Thanks for that. Sadly, too many are locked in a tunnel vision and fail to retain perspective. You may also look at Jung research on collective angers. Nonetheless, there is a slight though very important difference with the South Carolina example. The Eu is a cooperation of independent states with the view of averting nationalistic war by forging a common purpose, and retaining global influence as the World’s biggest and richest market.
Private Client Consultant at Russell-Cooke Solicitors
6 年Dear Keith, don’t worry. The demographics are on your side. As we older voters die off, Northern Ireland will unite with Ireland and Great Britain will rejoin the EU. The great thing is that when it does, it will no longer have protocol 21 and it will be bound by the Succession Regulation whilst Ireland will not. The Brexiteers will have achieved a closer union of GB with the EU. You may want to keep some money under the mattress in the meantime.
King's Counsel
6 年i was brought up on just this history, Keith, by my South Carolinan grandmother. my view, therefore, was that it was important for the UK to secede, before the EU had the capability to invade us. that is slightly tongue-in-cheek, but ... & don't be blue. Life is life, not Brexit. there are far worse problems out there, getting closer. is that any comfort??