Breeders' Cup 2023 by Mark Shrager

It is no exaggeration to say that Breeders’ Cup weekend representsis the ultimate challenge for those of us who think of themselves ourselves as handicappers.? The fourteen Breeders’ Cup races have been described as equal in difficulty to a equivalent to the final exam for a ph. D. in Hhandicapping.? W – well, actually, I’m the one who described it that way – and I’m right.? .? And I’m right.? With top thoroughbreds coming from all over the planet to settle the season’s championship honors, there are no easy answers to “Who’s going to win on Breeders’ Cup weekend?”

But I keep trying, and Last year, in fact, my winning choices totaled exactly one, and not for lack of trying.? It was frankly a bit embarrassing, watching one Shrager-endorsed runner after another charge through the Keeneland stretch, trailing respectfully behind other runners that, at the time, had seemed perfectly reasonable – even brilliant – choices.? “Never again,” I recall murmuring, after tolling the damage the day had wrought to my now-shrunken wagering bankroll..

so here I am, back again, with fourteen predicted winners to share with you.? As always, I’ve spent considerable time sorting through the fourteen fields’ pre-entries, then considerably more time subtracting the late scratches.? My choices represent more years of studying the Theory and Practice of Handicapping than I care to remember.? I’m glad you’re still here with me, still faithfully awaiting my choices, as many of you were last year.? You must be either staunchly loyal or urgently in need of institutionalization.? But I’m not judgmental.? I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt regarding your mental status.? And I appreciate your loyalty.

My new book, The First Kentucky Derby:? Thirteen Black Jockeys, One Shady Owner, and the Little Red Horse that Wasn’t Supposed to Win, is now available in bookstores, as well as at Amazon.com and other on-line booksellers.? Learn what the first Run for the Roses was like, why the wrong horse won (but for the right owner), and how African American jockeys, who rode 13 of the 15 starters in that first Derby, virtually disappeared from the tracks within thirty years.?

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This year’s , Breeders’ Cup Weekend is scheduled for Santa Anita on Friday and Saturday, November 3rd and November 4th.? Beautiful weather is predicted for southern California.? In the following paragraphs, I’ll provide my first three choices for each of the fourteen races, plus a runner in each race that I think should be a threat at long odds.? The odds throughout this analysis reflect the opening odds that were posted immediately after the post position draw.? This is It’s a big task, so let’s get to it.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3

5th Race – JUVENILE TURF SPRINT –

This $1 million race brings together a field of quick juveniles for a dashrun down the Santa Anita turf course that will be decided in slightly less than onea minute.? The choice here is John Sadler-trained 8-to-1 SLIDER, who has won two of his three lifetime starts, one of which was over the turf course that will hosts the weekend’s first Breeders’ Cup race.? Irish-bred BIG EVS, the early 3-to-1 favorite, earned an impressive 104 Timeform rating over a soft turf course in Doncaster’s ?in annexing the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster over a soft turf course, but has also raced well on firm grass and is my second choice.? ;In a strong vote of confidence from trainer George Weaver, CRIMSON ADVOCATE was shipped from Florida to England’s Ascot racetrack for the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes.? The trainer’s willingness to send an unseasoned 2-year-old filly abroad – and her ability to pull off a win in these circumstances – suggests that the 4-to-1 shot is in with a chance.? ?LONGSHOT:? Aidan O’Brien trainee CHERRY BLOSSOM, another Irish entrant, has raced well in good European company, and at 12-to-1 should not be overlooked.? looks as good as anybody for third.? In a strong vote of confidence from trainer George Weaver, CRIMSON ADVOCATE was shipped from Florida to England’s Ascot racetrack for the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes.? The trainer’s willingness to ship the filly abroad – and her ability to pull off a win in these circumstances – suggests that she is a valid longshot.??

6th Race – JUVENILE FILLIES –

In a $2 million event that has drawn a speed-packed field, Todd Pletcher stretch-runner CANDIED, ?undefeated winner of Keeneland’s Alcibiades Stakes and the field’s only entrant who can already boast a Grade 1 victory at the race’s mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, is my narrow choice the narrow first choiceat opening odds of 4-to-1.? Second choice TAMARA, listed as the odds-on 4-to-5 favorite for trainer Richard Mandella, won the 7-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in dominating fashion, but would need to get ?and could certainly get another quality furlong and a half.? My third choice, CHATALAS, Third choice VV’S DREAM was the 8 ?-length winner of the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes before her second-place finish in the Alcibiades.? CHATALAS owns a Grade 2 victory over the Santa Anita course and could outrun her 8-to-1 opening odds.? LONGSHOT:? JUST FYI was a romping winner of New York’s Grade 1 Frizette Stakes and would be an interesting longshot play, should she remain at her 8-to-1 morning line odds.

7th Race – JUVENILE FILLIES TURF –

Over the years, European owners have tended to send their top 2-year-old juvenile colts to contest Breeders’ Cup’s two Juvenile Turf miles, while keeping their top fillies home.? Bearing this in mind, I landed on stretch-running (and Canadian-based) 4-to1 morning line favorite SHE FEELS PRETTY as my choice in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.? BUCHU, the 6-to-1 co-second favorite, came from far back to win Keeneland’s Grade 2 Jessamin Stakes and is my second choice, and my third pick, undefeated AUSTERE, 12-to-1 on the morning line, blazed to a 1:35 2/5 mile in winning the $487,000 Juvenile Fillies Turf at Kentucky Downs.? ?LONGSHOT:? British-raced CARLA’S WAY, 6-to-1, should be closing at race’s end. .? Undefeated AUSTERE blazed to a 1:35 2/5 mile in winning the $487,000 Juvenile Fillies Turf at Kentucky Downs.? She steps up in class on Breeders’ Cup Friday but could be good enough.

8th Race – BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE -–

The $2 million Juvenile, which often determines early favoritism for the following year’s Kentucky Derby, brings together a group of well-bred and precocious two-year-olds from some of the nation’s most accomplished trainers.? My top choice this year is Breeders’ Futurity winner LOCKED, the 7-to-2 early favorite, from the overflowing Todd Pletcher barn.? Bob Baffert trainee PRINCE OF MONACO, one of two Bob Baffert 2-year-olds sharing second place in the odds rankings at 4-to-1, is the only runner in the field to have earned a 100+ Beyer Speed Rating and is my runner-up pick, is a worthy second choice, while my third choice, Michael Maker’s 8-to-1 trainee trainee THE WINE STEWARD, has won three of four, losing lost only to my our top-rated selection.? p choice in his four prior starts and rates serious consideration.? LONGSHOT:? Todd Pletcher’s 20-to-1 shot NOTED would be tempting at his morning line odds.? Brad Cox’s TIMBERLAKE has improved steadily since his 9 ?-length maiden victory in July, and represents a barn that produces many a winner.

9th Race – JUVENILE TURF -–

Unlike the Juvenile Fillies Turf, the male juvenile turf event has tended to favoroften been won by foreign-based runners.? Top European trainer Aidan O’Brien, whose record in past Breeders’ Cups has been extraordinary, placed no fewer than threefour talented juvenile colts among the Juvenile Turf’s pre-entries.? Bucking the trend, however, my choice is the Michael McCarthy-trained LEGEND OF TIME, whose trainer, Charles Appleby, has won the Juvenile Turf three times previously.? We’ll forgive the colt, which was impeded slightly nearing the finish at Newmarket, his fifth-place finish in his last start.? My second choice is ENDLESSLY, recent winner of the Grade 3 Zuma Beach Stakes over Santa Anita’s turf course, listed at 5-to-1 in the morning line.? Ffor thirdsecond, ?I’ll try 4-to-1 O’Brien trainee UNQUESTIONABLE, whose ran a solid second at Longchamps following a trouble-marred fourth-place finish in The Curragh’s Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, in which he banged against his starting gate stall at the break and lost a shoe.? Look for improvement if he merely experiences a normal trip.? ?Our third choice, most recent start was a solid second-place finish at Longchamps as the 8-to-5 favoritethe 3-to-1 morning line favorite, RIVER TIBER, .? JOHANNES BRAHMS, is another of the high-quality O’Brien runnerscontingent.? LONGSHOT:? , gets our longshot nod.The stretch-running 6-to-1 shot CARSON’S RUN won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine following two competitive outings at Saratoga.? He is in with a chance.?

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4

3rd Race – DIRT MILE –

With the death of Santa Anita specialist PRACTICAL MOVE, who had never lost a race at the California track, the morning line odds on the Dirt Mile are now mere approximations of what the linemaker intended.? For starters, CODY’S WISH, with his perfect record of seven wins in seven lifetime one- mile dirt starts, is an easy choice who should score at something considerably shorter than his 9-to-5 posted minuscule odds.? The Bill Mott trainee ended a six-race winning streak with a third-place finish in the mile-and-an-eighth Whitney Stakes in August, but won going away on October 1 in the seven-furlong Vosburgh and seems to be returning to top form.? For second, let’s tab PRACTICAL MOVE, who was a romping four-length winner in his return from a six-month layoffwe’ll now tab Todd Pletcher trainee CHARGE IT, at something less than 5-to-1, who raced in reduced form in his two most recent starts, but drops into easier company in the Dirt Mile.? Third choice ZOZOS, at 6-to-1 or thereabouts and undefeated in three lifetime dirt miles, will need to be the speediest of the speedy to have any chance.? LONGSHOT:? , and for third we’ll try PPreakness hero NATIONAL TREASURE, listed at 8-to-1, who has been competingracing in top company in longer races and may appreciate the Dirt Mile’s shorter distance.? As our longshot, we’ll try Todd Pletcher’s DREAMLIKE, who was closing well in his runner-up Pennsylvania Derby effort.

4TH Race – FILLY & MARE TURF -

We begin by asking three questions about each of the Filly & Mare Turf’s entrants:? Can she get the mile-and-a-quarter distance?? Can she handle turf?? Is she good enough?? One who checks all the boxes is Aidan O’Brien-trained 3-year-old WARM HEART, the morning line 3-to-1 second choice, ?another from the Aidan O’Brien barn, who has won five of seven starts this year in top European company.? 20-to-1 WITH THE MOONLIGHT, my second choice, raced well from off the pace in her U.S. debut for the outstanding trainer Charles Appleby, and is a potential shocker.? Returning Filly & Mare Turf runner-up IN ITALIAN, a fast and classy Chad Brown trainee, would be no surprise, although the race drew enough early speed to raise concerns about her front-running style.? LONGSHOT:? , and third choice WITH THE MOONLIGHT is another trained by Charles Appleby, whose Breeders’ Cup entrants are always threats.? 12-to-1 LUMIERE ROCK is a talented 3-year-old who could be close at the finish. ?NOTE:? Inspiral, the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, has recently turned in excellent 124 and 122 Timeform Ratings, but has never raced beyond a mile and may not be up to this race’s mile-and-a-quarter distance.

5th Race - FILLY & MARE SPRINT

With the injury to likely favorite Echo Zulu, the top choice in this 7-furlong event is clearly Chad Brown trainee GOODNIGHT OLIVE, the 6-to-5 early favorite, who has won six times in eight tries at the distance.? Second choice SOCIETY, 5-to-2, is classy and tough, but her front-running style may be a liability in this speed-packed field.? 6-to-1 MATAREYA seems third-best, while Bob Baffert’s speedy EDA, listed at 10-to-1, gets tested for class over the Santa Anita track, where she’s won four of five versus lesser oppositionin lesser company.

6th Race – THE MILE

The Mile is often the wild card among Breeders’ Cup races:? it has been won by fillies and mares, by runners returning from long layoffs, by scarcely believable longshots, and by superannuated 6- and even 7-year-olds.? e MileThis year, let’s swing our support to 5-year-old Charlie Appleby trainee MASTER OF THE SEAS, favored at 7-to-2 odds, who won the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile as the 2-to-5 favorite following a two-month layoff, then barely missed in the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile against our second choice, Todd Pletcher’s the outstanding UP TO THE MARK, an entrant later in the program in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.? Our choice’s stretch-running style will be put to the test as he breaks from the extreme outside post position 14 in the Mile.? With Up to the Mark’s defection, Bob Baffert trainee DU JOUR, at 15-to-1 in the morning line but probably heading for single digits, becomes our second choice following his late-charging victory in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile.? As our distant third choice, we’ll go with the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, Japan’s SONGLINE, winner five times in nine one-mile starts, although in company that may be suspecty have been questionable.? LONGSHOT:? Our longshot in the Mile is As a 27-to-1 shot, Irish-bred KELINA who gutted out a Group 1 victory in October’s seven-furlong Prix de la Foret at Longchamps.? She seems a live 6-to-1 shot.

7th Race – THE DISTAFF

Featuring tons of early speed and a runner with an apparent but perhaps false class edge, the 2023 Distaff Here is a difficult race.? 4-to-1 CLARIERRE, with over $3 million in lifetime earnings, is the unquestioned class of the racefield and will probably be a fairly short-priced favorite, but she’s been far more successful at much better at 8 ? furlongsa mile-and-a-six than the Distaff’s nine:? ?????????

Complicating matters is that most of the Distaff’s more accomplished runners have earned their victories in wire-to-wire fashion, This was a tough one, featuring abundant early speed.? It’s a closesuggesting that the eventual winner will come from off the pace, and with this in mind, -your-eyes-and-toss-the-dart sort of a race in which the running styles of the top fillies and mares may spell their doom.? In the end, II landed on Chad Brown’s 5-to-1 SEARCH RESULTS, whose last race, a wire-to-wire victory in a Churchill Downs Grade 3, would give her the appearance of being suggests exactly the sort of runner I’m concerned about.trying to avoid.? But this filly is not a one-dimensional speedster; most of this filly’s her recent races have been close- stalking efforts, all in graded stakes, and occasionally producing a 100+ Beyer Speed Rating.? It’s not great . . . but it’s better than the rest. ?Classy Classy CLAIRIERE was a dud in Saratoga’s Proud Ensign Stakes, but is entitled to another chance, is while the obvious choice – until you perform a slightly deep dive into her numbers, and recognize that in nine-furlong races, she tends to fall short:

That’s a substantial difference, and suddenly the obvious choice isn’t so obvious.? Based on her back class, let’s relegate the daughter of Curlin to the place position – and hope she salvages our exacta tickets.? Ffor third, we’ll try 8-to-1 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS, whose Beyer Speed Ratings ?numbers are unquestionably weak, but who, unlike so many in the Distaff, should is likely to be closing ground at the end.? LONGSHOT:? Let’s try Our longshot is RANDOMIZED, which may be the speed of the speed and somehow escape the carnage of our anticipated monumental speed duel.10-to-1 WET PAINT, who scored a Grade 1 victory in Saratoga’s Coaching Club American Oaks and was closest to Randomized, one of the Distaff’s contingent of speed horses, a month later in the classic Alabama Stakes.

8th Race – THE TURFhe Turf –

Like the Filly & Mare Turf, the mile-and-a-half Tturf raises specific questions about each entrant:? Can they get the distance?? Can they handle turf?? CAnd can they win?? Lightly-raced 4-to-1 shot KING OF STEEL seems the most interesting of our three choices.? Winner of the $1.5 million million-and-a-half-dollar Champions Stakes at Ascot on October 21st and a millionaire after just seven lifetime starts, his recent form is impeccable, and the 3-year-old seems to be still on the improve.? Next best is Aidan O’Brien’s 3-to-1 AUGUSTE RODIN , who owns two victories over our top choice and would be no surprise on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.? Third on my list is John Gosden trainee MOSTAHDAF, the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, who can claim race-topping Timeform ratings of 128 and 129 in his two most recent starts – but is 0-for-4 and three times out of the money in races n four tries has never won at 12 furlongs.? Let’s give him one more chance here – but at the bottom of our trifecta tickets, not the top.? LONGSHOT:? Our longshot is 12-to-1 WAR LIKE GODDESS is a long-time favorite who returned to the races with a flourish, winning the Grade 1 Turf Classic by a splashy 4 ? lengths.? The 6-year-old mare is 7-for-9 in lifetime starts at 12 furlongs.BOLSHOI BALLET, whose 107 Beyer Speed Rating in August’s Sword Dancer Handicap certainly caught our eye, but who had never previously won at the Turf’s 12-furlong distance and owns a weak 1-for-6 career record at the distance.

9th Race – THE CLASSIChe Classic –

Like the Dirt Mile, the $6 million Classic has lost a key player with the retirement of Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo, and the morning line odds, posted before the likely favorite’s scratch, now reflect greatly changed circumstances.? The key question regarding the revised $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classicfield , which seems likely to determine the 2023 Horse of the Year, concerns Bob Baffert’s Pacific Classic winnerspeedy ARABIAN KNIGHTrabian Knight, the 3-to-1 morning line favorite, winner of Del Mar’s Pacific Classic in wire-to-wire fashion, and Brad Cox’s 12-to-1 SAUDI CROWN (pictured), also classy, also gain, also fast, and also unwilling to concede the early lead.? There’s also other speed in the race, but these two should determine whether a suicidal speed duel developssets the race up for a stretch-runner, or whether one, outgrunning the other, inherits an easy front-running trip. ?Given Santa Anita’s and a championship-clinching victory.? And if that scenario becomes realitylightning-fast dirt course, a lone-f trip could presage a wire-to-wire romp.

We’ll seek the greater value and go with the longer-priced of the two, SAUDI CROWN, to narrowly edge his front-running foe in a close and exciting race-long battle.? , which of the two will win?? The guess here – and make no mistake, we’re dealing in guesswork more than dispassionate number-crunching – is that the abundance of early speed will take its toll as the talented field nears the wire, and that emerging from the pack will be Belmont Stakes/Travers winner ARCANGELO.? His odds will be fairly short, his victory narrow, but he seems the class of the class in this year’s Classic.? ThirdNext in line at the wire should be Japan’s Dubai World Cup winner, USHBA TESORO, offered at 4-to-1 and 6-for-6 lifetime at the Classic’s 10-furlong distance.? LONGSHOT:? Let’s use 12-to-1 ZANDON, easy winner of the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes a month ago.? the resurgent WHITE ABARRIO, the romping winner of Saratoga’s Whitney Stakes’; a close third should be ZANDON, which chased the Whitney winner home, then added to his resume a 4 ?-length victory in the Woodward Stakes.? It would be no surprise to see any of these three in the winners’ circle.? Our longshot is Japan’s Dubai Gold Cup winner USHBA TESORO, which has won seven of his last nine races in his own native land and in the Middle East.

10th Race – TURF SPRINTurf Sprint –

With my Classic choices in the official record, I’ll bet you thought we were done.? Wrong!!!? For sonme wrongheaded reason, the suits who run Breeders’ Cup decided this year, in their infinite wisdom, that this year, two sprint races, valued at $1 million and $2 million, should follow the $6 million Classic.? the $1 million Turf Sprint and the $2 million Sprint should follow the $6 million Classic.? Here is a puzzling sort of anticlimax: , with the big questions of the weekend largely answeredsolved, let’s now run two additional far less anticipated Breeders’ Cup racesbut still oBreeders’ Cup .? What an odd thing!.?

The obvious Turf Sprint choice in the 5-furlong Turf Sprint is last year’s 2022 winner CARAVEL, rather shockingly offered at 5-to-1 morning line odds, whose path to the 2023 Turf Sprint closely almost perfectly resembles the regimen that brought the now six-year-old mare to hera decisive 107 Beyer Speed Rating on Breeders’ Cup Day last year:? an 80 sprint in September, a 92 in October, and then a quickthree-week return for the victory.? This year, the 80 is replaced by an even better ere’s a 91 in August, there’s another 92 in October, then a three-week wait for the big race.? ?. . . She’s CARAVEL is speedy and classy, and owns 10 wins in 16 lifetime five-furlong turf sprints. Next choice is Phillip d’Amato’s MOTORIOUS, also 5-to-1, whohich has been a model of consistency done nothing wrong this year and sports gradually improving Beyer Speed Ratings, and third on my list is BRADSELL, offered at – you guessed it – 5-to-1 – who who once scored a 121 Timeform Ratingspeed rating that would horrify most of the remaining Turf Sprint starters.? LONGSHOT:? Christophe Clement trainee BEER CAN MAN has had a productive 2023 and could make his presence felt at long odds.BIG INVASION is a 6-for-9 terror in these miniature turf sprints, and at juicy 15-to-1 odds seems a solid overlay.

11th Race – THE SPRINThe Sprint

While one can question the wisdom of ending Breeders’ Cup Weekend with a six-furlong sprint, there is no questioning the quality of the Sprint field:? it is excellent.? Last year’s winner, ELITE POWER, 9-to-5 favorite in the opening odds, is a 6-furlong powerhouse, with four wins in six tries at the distance, three of them with 100+ Beyers topping out at ?– he tops out at 108 – and three of them in either Grade 1 or Group 1 company.? Beat him to win this race.? 4-to-1 GUNITE isseems a clear second choice, with only his preference for a bit more distance – he’s 3-for-6 at six furlongs, 6-for-9 with three second-place finishes at seven – suggesting that ELITE POWER might hold the edge.? Flip a three-sided coin for third between longtime sSouthern California favorite DR. SCHIVEL at 5-to-1, who he won the Del Mar Futurity as long ago as 2020, 5-to-1 and THE CHOSEN VRON, currently on an eight-race winning streak, and .? Not even mentioned so far but definitely deserving consideration is BBob Baffert trained 3-to-1e SPEED BOAT BEACH, whose return from a nine-month layoff resulted inwas a 103 Beyer and a narrow six-furlong loss to Dr. Schivel and a sparkling 103 Beyer.? LONGSHOT:? With five choices already listed, you want another one?? All right, I’ll give you two:? 15-to-1 NAKATOMI and 12-to-1 HOIST THE GOLD finished 1-2 in Keeneland’s Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes and one or both may be primed for a top effort.?

And with that, Breeders’ Cup Weekend will finally be complete.? My hope is that by that time, you and I will both have had successful weekends, concluding them with swollen bankrolls and fond memories of a great 2023 Breeders’ Cup.