Breeders' Cup 2021 by Mark Shrager

Why do I enjoy Breeders’ Cup weekend so much??Well, the fan in me loves the opportunity, over two brief but absorbing days, to watch the best racehorses in the world match strides, with championships at stake in every race.?And the handicapper in me delights at the chance to earn a profit on the season’s most daunting handicapping challenges, and to brag about it until we try it again next year.?

The headline in the Daily Racing Form’s Pre-Entries edition says it all:?“Breeders’ Cup offers chance at big prices on good horses.”?Exactly!?We’ll seek to identify those “good horses” shortly.

First, though, let’s dispose of the basics.?2021 marks the 38th edition of Breeders’ Cup, which was first contested at Hollywood Park in 1984.?That first Breeders’ Cup was a one-day collection of seven races, which today seems almost quaint. 2021 will feature fourteen contests, with purses totaling $31 million, spread across Friday and Saturday, November 5 and 6.?The venue for Breeders’ Cup XXXVIII is Southern California’s Del Mar Racetrack, which last hosted the event in 2017.

That 2017 Breeders’ Cup was a historic one for the handicappers, one of the handful (last year at Keeneland was another) in which longshots were so prevalent that a racegoer could have dispensed altogether with handicapping and earned a tidy profit by simply pushing two dollars through the betting windows on every entrant to win.?If only winning at the races could always be so easy!?Every handicapper would be a millionaire.

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?Mark Shrager and Diane Crump team up to tell the inspiring story of the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby in the 2020 Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award winning Diane Crump:?A Horse-Racing Pioneer’s Life in the Saddle, now available at Amazon.com, other on-line booksellers, and a variety of bookstores

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But we’re not.?Most Breeders’ Cups require us to handicap skillfully to eke out a profit, and so rather than take the lazy way out, let’s consider the possibilities in each of this year’s races.?Readers will note that I have predicted the 1-2-3 finishers in some races, more contenders in others, depending on the level of dominance I believe I see in the most likely winners.?

As they say, here goes nothing:

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5: Race 6 - $1,000,000 Juvenile Turf Sprint – It’s not every 2-year-old that is sent into European Group competition after just two starts in America, but such was the case for Wesley Ward trainee Twilight Gleaming.?He raced well in England, too, and I share Ward’s confidence in the race’s 4-to-1 morning line second choice.?Armor, listed at 6-to-1, prepped for the Juvenile Turf Sprint with a strong third-place finish in Group 1 company, and speedy Averly Jane, the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, is undefeated in four outings, including a 3-length romp in her last.

1.?????Twilight Gleaming, 2. Armor, 3. Averly Jane, 4. Derrynane

Race 7 - $2,000,000 Juvenile Fillies – Morning line 4-to-5 favorite Echo Zulu has three easy wins in three tries, including two Grade 1s, and seems almost too obvious.?5-to-2 co-second choice Hidden Connection was a powerful 9-length winner in her last.?Juju’s Map, also listed at 5-to-2, enters the Juvenile Fillies following an easy Grade 1 win at Keeneland.?The only concern here is Echo Zulu’s outside post position, with plenty of inside-drawn speed creating the danger that the odds-on favorite might be forced wide.?But the hunch here is that she’ll overcome this minor obstacle.

1.?????Echo Zulu, 2. Hidden Connection, 3. Juju’s Map, 4. Desert Dawn

Race 8 – $1,000,000 Juvenile Fillies Turf – Since the inception of the two juvenile turf miles, American-based runners have dominated the filly race, European males have been far more successful in their division.?This year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf drew very little early speed, compromising the chances of the stretch-running lukewarm 5-to-1 morning line favorite, TV chef Bobby Flay’s Pizza Bianca.?Instead, let’s take a flyer on 8-to-1 Bubble Rock, stretching out to a mile following a blistering 1:07 3/5 six-furlong victory in Belmont Park’s Grade 3 Matron Stakes.?We’ll look for 8-to-1 Chad Brown trainee Consumer Spending to edge out Pizza Bianca for the place spot.?

1.?????Bubble Rock, 2. Consumer Spending, 3. Pizza Bianca, 4. California Angel

Race 9 - $2,000,000 Juvenile – Jack Christopher, with his eye-catching 102 Beyer Speed Rating in Belmont’s Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, is the 9-to-5 morning line favorite, but the choice here is speedy Bob Baffert trainee Corniche, the 5-to-2 second choice, to be ridden by Breeders’ Cup’s all-time-winningest jockey, Mike Smith.?Jack Christopher is my second choice, and the maiden Commandperformance, listed at 5-to-1, closed powerfully in the final furlong of the Champagne, and is the choice for third.

1.?????Corniche, 2. Jack Christopher, 3. Commandperformance, 4. Double Thunder, 5. Oviatt Class

Race 10 - $1,000,000 Juvenile Turf – Let’s attempt to defy the Juvenile Turf’s tradition of European dominance with locally-based Mackinnon, listed at 8-to-1, which has won his last three, including Santa Anita’s Zuma Beach Stakes.?In that race, he clipped heels and surrendered several lengths to his rivals, then exploded past them for a game 2 ?-length victory.?For second, we’ll pick 6-to-1 shot Albahr, easy winner of Woodbine’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes following an undefeated season in England for sizzling-hot trainer Charles Appleby.?For third let’s try Aidan O’Brien trainee Glauthaune, listed at 12-to-1, who stumbled badly in his next-to-last race and lost all chance, then returned with a victory.?

1.?????Mackinnon, 2. Albahr, 3. Glauthaune, 4. Portfolio Company

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6:

Race 4 – $1,000,000 Filly and Mare Sprint – The defending Filly and Mare Sprint champion, Bob Baffert trainee Gamine, has scared much of the competition out of this race and will face only five challengers.?She is deservedly the shortest price of the weekend, with morning line odds of 3-to-5.?One of two possible scenarios should prevail in this race:?in one, Gamine takes an undisputed early lead and romps home ahead of speedy Bella Sofia (second choice at 5-to-2) and late-running 4-to-1 third choice Ce Ce; in the other, Gamine is challenged early by Bella Sofia, then goes on to victory while Bella Sofia drops back, Ce Ce charges to second, and a random filly or mare (let’s say 12-to-1 Estilo Talentoso; somebody has to finish third) arrives at the wire ahead of the others.?We’ll opt for scenario #1.

1.?????Gamine, 2. Bella Sofia, 3. Ce Ce

Race 5 - $1,000,000 Turf Sprint – In a wide-open race, the crucial handicapping question is whether the race has drawn enough early speed (Caravel, Charmaine’s Mia, Lieutenant Dan) to deny the 7-to-2 morning line favorite, Wesley Ward trainee Golden Pal, a front-running win.?Our answer is . . . maybe.?If so, Ward’s other entrant, Kimari, could charge to victory at more favorable 6-to-1 odds.?She won Keeneland’s Grade 1 Madison Stakes in her last start, and should be near, but not on, the early lead.?Golden Pal is our second choice, followed by the unpronounceable but talented 5-to-1 European Emaraaty Ana.

1.?????Kimari, 2. Golden Pal, 3. Emaraaty Ana, 4. Golden Slippers, 5. Lieutenant Dan, 6. Arrest Me Red

Race 6 - $1,000,000 Dirt Mile – Life Is Good, once one of the stars of Bob Baffert’s stable but now racing for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, is the obvious class of the race and the odds-on 4-to-5 morning line favorite.?But another to watch is Eight Rings, offered at enticing 10-to-1 odds, which is being worked masterfully into peak condition by the embattled but brilliant Baffert.?Would Baffert love to beat Life Is Good in this spot??Would he!?4-to-1 Ginobili has had a fine season and should outrun the rest.???

1.?????Life Is Good, 2. Eight Rings, 3. Ginobili,

Race 7 - $2,000,000 Filly and Mare Turf – War Like Goddess, the 7-to-2 morning line favorite, has four impressive wins in five 2001 starts, and seems the best of this bunch.?Following her home should be Japan’s Loves Only You and Europe’s Love, both listed at 4-to-1 and both victims, at various times this year, of European powerhouse Mishriff.?2020 Filly and Mare Turf winner Audarya, which returns as a 5-to-1 shot to defend her title, has not won in her four 2021 starts, but must be respected.

1.?????War Like Goddess, 2. Loves Only You, 3. Love, 4. Audarya

Race 8 - $2,000,000 Sprint – One should never take a race for granted, and this is doubly true for Breeders’ Cup races, but Jackie’s Warrior, winner of his last by 6 ? lengths at 1-to-20 odds and the morning line 6-to-5 favorite, is both the speed and the class of the Sprint. The 110 Beyer Speed Rating he earned in his last start is lengths better than any other entrant has produced.?I’ll pair him in exactas with overmatched local favorite Dr. Schivel (4-to-1 in the morning line), Aloha West (8-to-1) and Special Reserve (6-to-1). ?Is that cold enough for you, Batman??Brrrr!

1.?????Jackie’s Warrior, 2. Dr. Schivel, 3. Aloha West, 4. Special Reserve

Race 9 - $2,000,000 Mile – Here’s my favorite Breeders’ Cup race, a bastion of longshots over the years, and without trying to brag, I’ve nailed more than my fair share.?Front-runners almost never win this race; fillies and mares have frequently overcome their male competitors, and European invaders are major players.?Our choice here is Mother Earth, a 3-year-old filly trained by superstar European conditioner Aidan O’Brien, which has competed in 10 consecutive Group 1 races in Europe, winning or placing in eight, and for the sake of variety crossed the ocean for a late-charging runner-up performance in last year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf.?She seems an outstanding value at morning line odds of 8-to-1.?Second choice is Mo Forza (5-to-1 in the morning line), winner of four consecutive Grade 2 contests.?In Love (8-to-1) has improved steadily since arriving in America last year from Argentina and should not be overlooked.?The 6-year-old mare Got Stormy has had better seasons, but she is utterly game and merits at least a sentimental wager.

1.?????Mother Earth, 2. Mo Forza, 3. In Love, 4. Got Stormy

Race 10 - $2,000,000 Distaff – In a speed-packed field, we’ll have our money on the speed of the speed, 8-to-5 favorite Letruska, which has won 17 of 22 lifetime starts, frequently in wire-to-wire fashion and often without ever being challenged.?Royal Flag (8-to-1 in the morning line), Dunbar Road (an interesting 15-to-1 longshot if Letruska falters), Malathaat (the 4-to-1 co-second choice, a daughter of Breeders’ Cup winners Curlin and Dreaming of Julia) and classy Shedaresthedevil (also 4-to-1) should battle it out for the minor awards.

1.?????Letruska, 2. Royal Flag, 3. Dunbar Road, 4. Malathaat, 5. Shedaresthedevil

Race 11 - $4,000,000 Turf – There’s no question that defending Turf champion Tarnawa is the class of the field, but she comes into the race having endured draining stretch-long battles in her two most recent races, both Group 1 events:?five weeks ago in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over a heavy, tiring course, and a month earlier in the Irish Champion Stakes.?Is she up to yet another all-out 12-furlong slugfest??Is she worthy of a wager at her anticipated 9-to-5 odds? ?Instead, let’s try the lightly-raced German Derby winner, Sisfahan, who loves the mile-and-a-half distance, is fresh, and is listed at 12-to-1 in the morning line.?Tarnawa is too good to keep out of our trifectas, while Domestic Spending, at 4-to-1, seems third-best.

1.?????Sisfahan, 2. Tarnawa, 3. Domestic Spending, 4. Gufo

Race 12 - $6,000,000 Classic – 2021 brings us an extraordinary Classic field.?The top choices here have demonstrated so much unquestioned quality that one can easily eliminate the obviously outclassed Express Train, Stiletto Boy and Tripoli.?I would also downgrade the chances of a trio of runners who appear to need the lead in order to win, a trio that includes the 5-to-2 morning line favorite, Knicks Go, 8-to-1 Art Collector, and this year’s Kentucky Derby winner (until the courts rule otherwise), 4-to-1 Medina Spirit.?The latter is as game as they come, but has never won a race he hasn’t led wire-to-wire, and he may never see the lead in this tough spot.?Max Player, ambitiously placed in this superb field, will be yet another winging it on the front end.?This appears to leave the race to a pair of ultra-talented 3-year-olds:?Hot Rod Charlie (4-to-1), which can track the leaders early and rally from a stalking position, and stretch-running Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality (pictured, second choice at 3-to-1), which has eight wins in nine lifetime starts and was compromised in his fourth-place Kentucky Derby finish by a wide trip in the oversized Derby field.?Expect a rousing battle to the wire, with Essential Quality prevailing in a close finish, and staking a powerful claim to Horse of the Year honors.??????

1.?????Essential Quality, 2. Hot Rod Charlie, 3. Knicks Go, 4. Medina Spirit, 5. Art Collector