Breaking the Katak Bawah Tempurong Mindset: Brunei’s Leap Forward

For years, the katak bawah tempurong story has been told as a lesson - not about weakness, but about perspective. The frog under the coconut shell once thought its world was complete until cracks appeared, letting in glimpses of something bigger. It was never about abandoning the shell but realising its limits and the need to grow beyond it.

Brunei, too, has thrived under a secure and familiar economic shell, built on oil and gas wealth. But today, that shell is shrinking, and the world outside is changing. Global markets are shifting, industries are evolving, and the question before us is clear: Do we stay within the old tempurong, or do we expand it to embrace new possibilities?

This is not about leaving behind what has sustained us - it is about building a larger, stronger, and more connected Brunei. A Brunei that thrives in trade, technology, tourism, and innovation. A Brunei that stands at the centre of the ASEAN economy, not at its edges.

The time has come to reshape our future. The tempurong must grow so we too can grow. Will we take the leap?

By DMAO/MHO

Brunei stands at a crossroads. For decades, it has found comfort under the?tempurong?of oil and gas wealth, but that shell is now cracking.

The global energy shift, economic stagnation, and rising uncertainty have exposed the?fragility of over-reliance on a single industry.

The Malay proverb?Katak Bawah Tempurong - a frog confined under a coconut shell, unaware of the world beyond - perfectly mirrors Brunei’s predicament.?

Will we stay in our shrinking comfort zone, or will we break free and leap toward a future of possibilities??

A recent series of?expert discussions with economic analysts, former government officials, and business leaders?underscores the urgency of reform.

These discussions revealed common concerns about?Brunei’s economic diversification, fiscal responsibility, governance transparency, infrastructure, workforce development, and sustainability.

From these talks, the?SHUTTT framework?emerged - a roadmap emphasising investments in?State reserves,?Human capital,?Urban infrastructure,?Trade,?Technology, and?Tourism to?create resilience in a post-oil economy.?

The Reality on the Ground

The impact of economic decline is no longer confined to boardroom discussions - it is felt?in the streets, in homes, and businesses.?

Roslan, a small restaurant owner in?Kuala Belait, once had a bustling eatery serving expat oil workers. Now, he watches empty tables and worries about paying rent.

The exodus of?expatriate families due to downsizing and company closures?is hurting local businesses, pushing the?rental market into decline?and leaving once-thriving restaurants struggling to survive.?

Nurul’s family, once secure thanks to her father’s oil industry job, now faces financial uncertainty after his retrenchment.?

Zarina, a fresh graduate, sent out over 50 job applications but received no offers, as companies prioritise experienced foreign hires over local talent.

Their stories are not isolated - they reflect a?wider economic reality?that Brunei must address.

The Need for a Bigger Tempurong

Brunei’s?BND 3.1 billion budget deficit?is evidence that?change is no longer an option - it is a necessity.

Financial experts stress that Brunei’s reserves?must not sit idle?but should be actively invested in?wealth funds, high-growth industries, and national infrastructure.

Countries like?Singapore’s Temasek Holdings?have demonstrated how state reserves can generate?billions in revenue through smart investments.

To transition from?dependency to sustainability, Brunei must:

• Expand revenue sources?through?digital taxation, SME incentives, and formalising the informal economy.
• Develop Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)?to finance key infrastructure projects.
• Introduce growth-linked bonds?to ensure economic expansion aligns with financial security.?

Beyond Oil: Building an Inclusive Economy

Brunei’s economy needs?more than just oil - it needs a diversified portfolio.

Some districts have already taken?small but promising steps:

• Tutong’s agrotourism and organic farming?have positioned it as a potential?food security hub.
• Temburong’s ecotourism efforts?are attracting international visitors, proving that Brunei can?monetise its natural beauty.
• Belait, once an oil powerhouse, has the potential to be transformed into a regional trade and logistics hub.?With its strategic location and access to industrial zones, Belait can be positioned as?a key player in ASEAN’s trade network, linking up with?China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?for greater regional economic integration. More importantly, Belait can serve as?a gateway to the BIMP-EAGA economy, leveraging its position as the?backyard economy of ASEAN.

These?success stories should not remain small experiments - they should be?scaled up nationally.

The?SHUTTT framework?provides a?clear action plan?for economic transformation:

???State Reserves - Reinvest profits into infrastructure, technology, and education.

???Human Capital - Develop AI, fintech, and green technology training programs.

???Urban Infrastructure - Expand?Muara Port and Anduki Airport?for trade and logistics.

???Trade & Technology - Boost?halal exports, digital services, and tech startups.

???Tourism - Expand?eco-lodges, adventure tourism, and Islamic heritage tourism.

Trust in Governance: A Missing Link

Economic policies alone will not restore?confidence - transparency is key.?

Haji Salleh, a retired government officer, echoes a growing sentiment:?

“We hear about billion-dollar projects, but where does the money go? The public deserves to know.”?

Without?governance and reforms, even the best economic strategies will fail.

??Introduce an Independent Fiscal Oversight Committee?to track public spending.

??Strengthen institutional accountability?in major development projects.

??Engage the public in economic, planning, ensuring policies benefit all Bruneians.?

Future-Ready Workforce: Bridging the Gap

A modern economy demands?skilled talent, yet?40% of high-skilled jobs in Brunei are held by foreign workers. Without workforce reform,?Brunei’s youth will be left behind.

??Invest in STEM and digital education?to align with emerging industries.

??Mandate skill-building programs?for job seekers and professionals.

??Ensure foreign workforce policies prioritise Bruneians?for high-value roles.?

A Sustainable Brunei: Green Growth or Stagnation?

Brunei cannot afford to ignore?environmental responsibility.?Illegal logging, weak enforcement, and resource depletion?pose long-term threats.

??Accelerate renewable energy projects?like solar farms and hydroelectric plants.

??Enforce strict environmental regulations?with digital monitoring.

??Support carbon-neutral industries with tax incentives and funding.?

Breaking Free or Falling Behind?

Brunei is at a defining moment.?The oil wealth that once built our nation is no longer a guarantee of security.?

We can either?cling to the shrinking tempurong, hoping for stability that no longer exists, or?expands our horizons, embrace new industries and shape a future of resilience and growth.

Do we choose to remain under the old shell, or do we build a bigger one - one that allows us to see beyond, grow, and embrace the world while keeping our values and identity intact??The time to leap is now.?The tempurong is too small for Brunei’s dreams. (DMAO/MHO/03/2025)

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