Brazil: Lula and Bolsonaro to fight closely contested campaign, runoff to be needed

• Election campaign is likely to competitive, polarized, and heated amid sharply polarized electorate
• Lula continues to lead all opinion polls, but a runoff looks likely to be needed and that will almost surely pit him against Bolsonaro
• Changes are also coming for elections for Congress on expected move to center

The 2022 presidential election will be one of the most competitive, polarized, and heated elections in Brazil's history with just over a month to go before the first round on Oct 2 that will focus all eyes on the battle between incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party-PL) and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party-PT). Though many Brazilians would no doubt prefer a third candidate to the two frontrunners, no other candidate polls higher than 6%. So far, Lula has led the way, holding a relatively large lead for the first round, but not polling at over the 50% need to avoid a runoff on Oct 30. With Lula in the lead, and taking a page from former US President Donald Trump's book, Bolsonaro has been for months attacking the electoral system and warning that the left might try to steal the election, setting the stage for the potential outbreak of violence. With Bolsonaro also framing the election as a "fight between good and evil," the election is set to be fraught.

In 2018, Lula was barred from running in the election by a prison sentence for corruption allegations, but court rulings have since freed Lula and allowed him to run in these elections. The PT was also involved in corruption scandals that made its candidate, Fernando Haddad, lose the election. Bolsonaro had a difficult 2018 campaign as well, and was stabbed during a Sep 6, 2018, campaign event in Minas Gerais that did in the end help increase his support, particularly due to a successful social media campaign. Bolsonaro followed up his victory by promotion what he calls traditional values and celebrating Brazil's military dictatorship. This has even led some analysts to say Brazilian democracy might not survive another Bolsonaro term, particularly due to the president's attacks of the electoral system, including regarding alleged voting fraud. Politicians, analysts, legal experts, and business execs, among others, have rallied to defend democracy and the Electoral Supreme Court (TSE) from Bolsonaro's attacks.

Defense Minister Paulo Nogueira has said the military will inspect ballot boxes, triggering fears of potential electoral interference and raising the stakes. But despite Bolsonaro's attacks, some 73% of Brazilians express trust in the ballot box system, compared with 24% that do not trust it, according to a poll from Datafolha. In line, some 43% of Brazilians say there is no chance that the election will be rigged, compared with 34% that say it will be. Still, around 56% of Brazilians say Bolsonaro will not attempt a coup, compared with 37% that say he will attempt it, though Bolsonaro has said he will respect the results.

The campaign will bring five election debates. The first, held Aug 28, saw frequent clashes between Lula and Bolsonaro. But the debate also reaffirmed the view that Bolsonaro is not capable of controlling his anger at the smallest incitement. He went after a female journalist at the debate, leading even his camp to say he should have refrained from misogynistic comments that could in the end turn off women from voting for him. In a situation in which he trails Lula in both the first and second round polls, he will need every vote he can get.

In terms of potential final election outcomes, it seems likely that if Bolsonaro wins re-election, the economic policies and the political environment will not change. It is expected that economic policy will continue to have a pro-market slant, with measures to privatize state assets and boost private investment and with the policy led by the current Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, who Bolsonaro has said would remain in place if the incumbent can win. On the other hand, if Lula wins, there will be bigger changes. Lula opposes privatization and seeks a return to state intervention. He has said the spending rule will be dropped, though he has also chosen a relatively centrist running mate that is taken as meaning Lula doesn't want to alienate centrists and could temper any sharp turn to the left in terms of economic policy. In the end, the election is set up to be one of the most consequential in recent Brazilian history.

MAIN CANDIDATES

Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party - PL)

VP candidate: Walter Braga Netto

For the Good of Brazil (PL, Republicans Party-PR, and Progressive Party-PP)

Jair Bolsonaro was born in Gliceiro, Sao Paulo, and is of Italian descent. He attended the main military academy in Brazil, the Academia Militar das Agulhas Negras. He served in the armed forces for 17 years, reaching the rank of captain. He was elected as a federal congressman in 1990 by the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). He served four consecutive terms representing other political parties. In 2018, he joined the Social Liberal Party (PSL) and won the presidential election in 2018 with its support. In November 2021, Bolsonaro aligned with the Liberal Party (PL) for his re-election bid, having previously left the PSL after clashes.

In 2018, Bolsonaro increased his popularity amid an economic recession and rising crime with an anti-establishment law-and-order message that has branded him as far-right and nationalist. Bolsonaro is very popular on social media and has a large number of followers, and even more than does Lula. Bolsonaro is in favor of military-like laws, torture, and the right to bear arms. He espouses a nationalist and a protectionist agenda. He defines himself, however, as business-friendly and in favor of the privatization of all state-owned firms. Some investors are doubtful about his market convictions, though, and support for economic liberalism. He has also made divisive comments regarding minorities and vulnerable groups, insulting gays, women, and black people. He opposes same-sex marriage, abortion, immigration, and what he calls gender policies.

In 2020 and 2021, his popularity dropped due to his mishandling of the coronavirus crisis. Bolsonaro constantly backed economic opening, even during times when the daily numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths reached records, called for an end to lockdowns, and denied the seriousness of the coronavirus as well as, later, the effectiveness of the vaccines. He was involved in a scandal involving the delayed purchase of vaccines by the government. He also decided not to be vaccinated.

Bolsonaro's constant criticism of Congress and the Federal Supreme Court (STF), and now, during the campaign, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) and the electronic voting system, have reduced his support and led many to criticize him for being anti-democratic. Furthermore, Bolsonaro has openly supported Hungary's President Viktor Orbán and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

On the other hand, Bolsonaro could finally privatize the Eletrobras power firm. He tried to do the same with the state-owned oil firm Petrobras, but the pandemic made him and his team change paths and put aside their agenda, including the administrative and tax reforms. Still, before the outbreak of the pandemic, Brazil's Congress approved a pension reform that created the possibility for states and municipalities to review the decision to join the general pension reform for federal public workers, including contribution time and minimum age.

Bolsonaro's political and economic offer has proven attractive to pro-market agents and also to conservative ones. He is supported by rising Evangelical Christian community, which represents a third of Brazil's electorate. Bolsonaro is Catholic, but his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, is Evangelical, whose relationship with the most powerful pastors in the country is strong and close. Bolsonaro is also fully supported by the military and state police, meaning his re-election bid continues to be strong, even if Lula has so far had the polling lead.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers Party - PT)

VP candidate: Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)

Brazil of Hope (PT, Communist Party of Brazil-PCdoB, Green Party-PV, Socialism and Liberty Party-PSOL, Sustainable Network-REDE, Brazilian Socialist Party-PSB, Solidarity, Avante, and AGIR)

Lula, born in Caetés, Pernambuco, was a former leader union who became president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010. He was a founding member of the leftist Workers' Party (PT). He put in place wildly popular social programs like Bolsa Familia and Minha Casa, Minha Vida. He also garnered wide international appeal. He did try running for the 2018 elections, but he was disallowed from running due to corruption charges. Lula was jailed in 2018 for receiving a beachfront apartment under the Car Wash probe tied to corruption at state-run oil firm Petrobras. Before he was disallowed from running, Lula led all opinion polls. Lula's sentence was reduced to eight years and ten months from the original twelve years, but in 2019 he was given another twelve years for accepting bribes to renovate a country house from construction firms. However, in November 2019, the Federal Supreme Court (STF) overturned a three-year-old rule about imprisoning someone who was convicted after they lose the first appeal. This ruling allowed him to be freed in order to exhaust all appeal options before being considered guilty and jailed. STF Justice Edson Fachin then annulled in March 2021 Lula's conviction, allowing him to run.

Lula's economic advisers say he plans to increase economic growth with measures to fight hunger and poverty and the launch of a program to increase investments led by the government, though without threatening public finances. Though Lula disagrees with the current spending ceiling rule, he has vowed to replace it with another fiscal anchor. Fiscal responsibility has been always part of Lula's plans, one of his representatives has said in talks with financial market players. In general, Lula supports expanding the participation of the state and increase taxes on the richest to fund redistribution.

Lula is supported by the poorest people in the country and the lower-middle classes, especially in the Northeast Region. Many of these Brazilians back him for his previous programs to fight poverty, which raised millions of them from poverty. Still, many others do remember all the corruption scandals that surrounded Lula and his party, as well as the fiscal problems left by the ousted President Dilma Rousseff (PT) during her second term in the government (2014-16), resulting in the worst recession in the country's history.

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party - PDT)

VP candidate: Ana Paula Matos (PDT)

Rebellion of Hope

Ciro Gomes, who hails from the city of Pindamonhangaba, Sao Paulo, attended the Law School of the Federal University of Ceará, participated in the student movement, and has ties to the Catholic Left. He has worked as a municipal prosecutor, he was elected mayor of Fortaleza, the capital of Ceará, in 1989, and in April 1990, he became the second youngest ever governor when he won election to be governor of Ceará. In 1994, he served as finance minister in the government of Itamar Franco. He ran for president in 2018, coming in third place with 12.5% of the vote.

Gomes was one of the founding members of the PSDB but left it in 1996. He moved to the Socialist People's Party (PPS) and ran as a presidential candidate in 1998 and 2002. In 1998, he came in third (11% of votes) and took fourth in 2002 (12%). In the 2002 election, he supported Lula in the runoff. After, he was appointed national integration minister. After the PPS decided to break its coalition with the PT in 2004, he chose to remain in his post. As a consequence, the PPS removed him from the party and he decided to join the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). In 2006, he was elected as a federal deputy. In 2015, he joined the PDT, after a brief stint with the Republican Party of the Social Order (PROS). Gomes supported the impeachment of former President Rousseff.

Gomes is considered a left-of-center candidate and an anti-establishment outsider, who questions social reforms, democracy, and international relations. Gomes has proposed to increase public infrastructure spending and institute agrarian reform. He opposes the privatization of state-owned companies and the labor reform put in place by former Presidents Michel Temer and Bolsonaro. In general, Gomes has an interventionist economic agenda combined with an anti-corruption edge. The market sees his proposals as comprised of the spirit of high government intervention.

Gomes is supported by leftists offended by the PT corruption scandals and also backed by older and educated voters. He has a modest base, and his support mostly comes from the Northeast, as does that of the PT, but mainly from his home-state Ceará. Still, some PDT members did not want him to run after the election results in 2018. Some of them wanted their local candidates to run with Lula. In any case, he is in distant third in all polls, leaving him without the opportunity to contend with the runoff, though perhaps giving him a kingmaking role ahead of the runoff likely needed for Oct 30.

OTHERS

Minor candidates are participating in the elections, though none of them is likely to do well. Remaining candidates are Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement-MDB), Roberto Jefferson (Brazilian Labor Party-PTB), Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party-PCB), Pablo Marcal (Republican Party of the Social Order-PROS), Vera Lucia Salgado (United Socialist Workers' Party-PSTU), Soraya Thronicke (Brazil Union), and Leonardo Pericles (Popular Unity-UP).

OPINION POLLS

Lula leads all opinion polls. His polling average is some 42%, which gives him a strong lead, but also remains well below the 50% plus one needed to avoid a runoff. Bolsonaro polls in second place with average of about 33%, though he does poll closer in some surveys. No other candidate is close to the two frontrunners. In all polls, the leftist Gomes is in third place with just 6% support or so.

As can be seen, the Oct 2 vote looks very likely to produce a runoff with Lula facing off against Bolsonaro. The most recent surveys suggest Lula would beat Bolsonaro in a runoff on Oct 30 as well.

CONGRESS

On Oct 2, Brazilians will also choose some senators (one-third of the total: 27) and all deputies (all seats: 513) for the next four years. It is expected that a new president of the Chamber of Deputies will be chosen. Former Justice Minister Sergio Moro is a candidate for senator (Paraná) after he decided not run for the presidency. The Inter-Parliamentary Advisory Department (Diap) said that there are 446 deputies attempting to win re-election. Some 14 senators will seek re-election as well.

These elections will likely reshape alliances between parties, mainly in the lower house. Compared with 2018, when Congress made room for a new right political wing, this year will be marked by a center-wing political movement, most believe. Some members of this wing, known as centrao, usually adhere to the presidential candidate that wins, without giving up their ideology in exchange for spaces in the administration. That suggests whichever candidate that wins the presidential election will have the chance to form working majorities in Congress, though, as noted, the election campaign is likely to be heated indeed and big surprises still can't be ruled out in such a tense environment.