Brazil Density Patterns 2022
The world's population exhibits a spatial distribution that can be visualized using population density classes. Brazil has recently released the results of their 2022 population census, which was delayed for two years due to covid and related issues. The results show a population of about 203 million persons, growing at a relatively slow 6.5 percent in twelve years. Brazil is about 3.3 million square miles in extent, the third largest country in the Western Hemisphere after Canada and the United States, and the second largest in terms of population after the United State's 331 million.
Obtaining official population data for the 5,570 municipalities of Brazil (similar to United States counties), and a map shapefile, I used ArcMap 10.8.2 software and created maps comparing the 2022 census with the 2010 census. The following four population density (population divided by land area) categories were used:
Low density green is expected to correlate with the presence of Amazon Rainforest, while high density purple represents the location of urbanized areas. Yellow is expected to correlate with cropping and ranching, and orange places correlate with a Brazilian metropolitan hinterland system.
The first map shows the municipalities, which tend to be larger in the rainforest interior and smaller in coastal areas.
The second map shows the change in population in two categories: municipalities that increased population and municipalities that decreased population. One third of the land area of Brazil experienced an average of a 5.4 percent decrease. The pattern itself is mixed and distributed, suggesting that more than one factor explains why population decreased in certain places but still gained in others.
Applying our density categories, we see a pattern of low density interior of Brazil. This green area makes up 54% of the country. In 2010, the population was about six million persons, or three percent of total population of Brazil. The 'metropolitan' orange and purple, or hinterlands and cities, takes up 8.6% of Brazil, an area a bit larger than the state of Texas or a bit smaller than the country of Turkey. Three quarters of the population is in this metropolitan system. The 'working' farm and ranch lands (yellow), had a population of 43.6 million distributed on 1.2 million square miles of land.
The next map shows population twelve years later. The pattern is similar. Most of the population growth occurred in the orange and purple categories, and that combined land area increased from 280 to 302 thousand square miles. The purple category increased land area by 3,244 square miles, mostly due to existing urban areas like the coastal Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and the interior Brasilia expanding their urban footprints. The green area retracted by 1.4% or 25,282 square miles. The green category remains the smallest in people and largest in area, with 6,251,051 persons (3.1%) residing in 1,771,645 square miles of land (54%).
Density categories are suggestive but are not the same thing as actual land use or land cover. Regarding rainforest, Brazil now monitors deforestation using remote sensing. During 2010-2022 the area deforested was estimated at 37,089 square miles. Trees grow and forests do grow back, so an estimate of aforestation can be reviewed. During 2010-2022, 42,187 square miles of land reverted back to rainforest. How does this compare with changes in density categories?
The last map shows 31 municipalities which had population growth sufficient to move them from categories 4 to 3, or green to yellow. This is shown on Map Figure Five as yellow. Meanwhile 26 municipalities lost population sufficient to change their category from 3 to 4, or yellow to green. Overall, 45,660 square miles went from green to yellow, while 23,463 square miles went from yellow to green, or a net decrease of green or low density areas of 22,197 square miles. Land cover estimates indicate that impacts on the forest were a bit less than the density classification comparison suggests.
To conclude, Brazil's recent census shows that population growth is slowing, with most growth occurring near the Atlantic coast in urban areas and their associated metropolitan hinterlands. Dynamic change and shifts continue to have impacts on remote interior areas containing the Amazon rainforest, but these pressures may be subsiding.
Data References
Brazil 2022 Census
https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/social/population/22836-2020-census-censo4.html?=&t=resultados
领英推荐
Silva, Lincoln (2022). Brazilian Municipalities - shapefile. figshare. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16619635.v1
Supporting References
Official Deforestation Data
Afforestation Data
Example of a municipality where deforestation is occurring:
Example of a municipality where aforestation is occurring:
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