A brave new world

“Only a crisis, actual or perceived, produces real change”

?– Milton Friedman

We are in the midst of a bifurcation. These are seminal moments in history that change the course of human existence. A global reset is in place and experts compare the script of this crisis to the World Wars or the bleak times during the great depression era.

Capitalism in the COVID19 world:

Without a doubt, modern day free enterprise has never been confronted by anything as widespread as COVID19. The exponential spread of the virus has already overwhelmed many a healthcare system. It is one of those moments we would much rather hide away in memory holes. If the outcomes are measured in relation to how many of us survive, the general consensus is that countries that act with urgency can expect a fatality rate of between 0.5% - 0.9%. The rest of the world is in line to see rates floating between 3% - 5%. Let’s take that a step deeper. Early reports published in the New England Journal of Medicine reveal that 2.5% of patients requiring hospitalisation, are candidates for intensive care.

Italy and China have borne terribly sombre circumstances as the virus onslaught took shape. Their healthcare workers are exhausted, dejected and driven to act against their best desires. Nurses and doctors have been called back from retirement to lend much needed help. Matt Hancock, UK’s Health Secretary recently tweeted with glee at having 4,500 retired healthcare workers return to work. COVID19 has brought societal paradoxes to the surface. The virus and it’s spread has been described by futurists as being hyper-global and hyper-local at the same time. Is this Room 101 that George Orwell wrote about?

Intelligence and Empathy:

Emergencies expedite processes. Government decisions that would often take years to parley are passed within days. The good oil is administered and technological solutions are pushed into the forefront at breakneck speed. That said, the new economic landscape has temporarily upended our fears of a global automation takeover.

While the growth of machine intelligence cannot be underestimated, we find chasms in our current world economy without human minds and thought application. Automation is far more likely to make your job easier, and not decimate it completely. The COVID19 world has revealed with clarity that machines have their strengths and we as humans have ours. It is entirely likely that we may never highly automate the most important industry in today’s environment, healthcare. And, perhaps, this isn’t entirely a bad outcome. Case in point is the classic thought experiment, ‘the trolley problem’.

Humans are social creatures, thriving on empathy. This is where automation comes undone. Behavioural change is brought about empathy and emption, and not information. The missing apex of Maslow’s hierarchy can suitably be occupied by emotional intelligence. When it comes to artificial intelligence systems, if we want to see the emergence of general intelligence, empathy is a critical piece.

Electronic Health Information System:  

In the post COVID19 world, we will refrain from trying to kill a fly with a cannon. Instead, the importance of the fundamentals: surveillance, information and data will rise to prominence. For the first time in our history, today we have sensors, algorithms and mapping tools that can help monitor entire populations. Unwittingly, we will most often choose health over privacy when tipping points are in effect.

Micro and macro centralised monitoring systems spread across the health system, built upon trust, compliance and co-operation will be key. Health systems strive to cut expenses, reduce time spent on decisions and standardise processes and quality control. These requirements have slid the dial in favour of centralised systems. That said, there are arguments to support both ends: if the priority of a health system is cost cutting, then a system-level governance and operational design has been shown to work. However, input and local responsibility are paramount, a regional board model might work better. Increasingly, we are seeing hybrid versions come into play. With worldwide populations undeniably aging and aging populations requiring more healthcare, the problem is not likely to go away and creates an increasingly urgent need for efficiency.

Health systems need products that will continue to transform healthcare worldwide as new users transition to integrated health systems. These products will help manage and integrate the complexity of a highly distributed system. And together, we will brave the new world. The post COVID19 world.