Bracing for the Monsoon: Have We Learned from the Past?

As Northern India grapples with scorching heat, the awaited monsoon brings with it a crucial question: are we better prepared this year?

Catastrophic incidents such as landslides and slope failures frequently occur in the Himalayan and Eastern regions of India due to anthropogenic and geological factors. However, their intensity and frequency have increased in the past few years, and they have emerged in previously stable areas if statistics are anything to go by. For instance, according to data from the National Disaster Management Authority, Uttarakhand reported over 1,100 landslide incidents in 2023, up from 245 in 2022 and 354 in 2021. Last year, the National Remote Sensing Centre under Indian Space Research Organisation released the Landslide Atlas of India, revealing that India is among the top five countries globally vulnerable to landslides, with at least one death per sq km caused by a landslide.

So, what is driving this surge in landslides? Research indicates a mix of tectonic, hydrological and human interventions. While landslides are influenced by seasonal rainfall, snowmelt, earthquakes, and volcanic activity, extreme landslides are increasingly triggered by variable rainfall patterns. These patterns, characterized by greater intensity and altered arrival and departure times, are a result of climate change. The situation worsens when rains hit areas with unplanned and impractical structural developments on fragile, hilly landscapes, leading to massive destruction. Deforestation for infrastructural projects like dam construction, hill cutting, and tunnel excavation further exacerbates the problem, making the soil more susceptible to water from high terrain and disrupting the region's ecological balance.

The National Landslide Risk Management Strategy from the National Institute of Disaster Management highlights that most building constructions in the Himalayan region, inspired by the Delhi Master Plan, are unsuitable for hill cities. Despite extensive research and past tragedies like the 2013 Kedarnath landslide, we are yet to come up with comprehensive landslide prevention, warning and mitigation strategies.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach:

1. Comprehensive Geological Surveys: ?These are crucial for effective assessment and prevention. Unscientific urban development for tourism or slope cutting without proper stabilization measures in hilly and fragile regions, often based on previous loose overburden, necessitates an independent scientific review to evaluate their long-term impact on local ecology.
2. Early Warning System (EWS): This system utilizing AI and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, can predict and alert communities about impending hazards, providing ample time to implement safety measures.
3. New-age Geotechnical Engineering Solutions: These are proving invaluable in mitigating landslides. For example, debris flow barriers can effectively arrest soil and water flows and even shallow landslides on slopes, channels and chutes. Additionally, gabions or flexible gabion facia reinforced soil walls or reno mattresses can be used to reduce water velocity, direct water flow, and prevent erosion. These solutions not only reduce carbon emissions and lower infrastructure maintenance costs but also enhance biodiversity and promote vegetation growth

It is encouraging to see that the Indian government has taken several steps to ensure disaster management, including the modernization of fire brigade services, dedicated grants for mitigation of floods and landslides and safety guidelines for nuclear plant sites. During the 6th edition of the International Conference on Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, our Hon'ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi emphasized the need for resilient infrastructure for a sustainable future. The formation of the G-20 Disaster Risk Reduction Group, with India at the helm, further signals the initiation of the journey towards sustainable development.

However, the success of these initiatives hinges on their swift and effective implementation. As we brace for the monsoon, it is imperative that we leverage technology, scientific research, and innovative engineering solutions to protect our communities and ensure a resilient future.