BR Anaylsis | 5G communication technology set to take over most fixed wireless access

Fixed wireless access (FWA) is one of the most prevalent 5G usage scenarios for communications service providers (CSPs) globally, with the number of those offering the service increasing over the past year. This may be a good solution for rural areas, outside the main grid, where the investment needed for bringing fixed internet may not be financially viable. The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report presents details and forecasts on the evolution of the telecom industry, as well as the situation by region.

By Aurel Dragan

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As of April 2024, 241 of the 310 global communications service providers (CSPs) included in the Ericsson report were offering FWA services, and 128 of them—about 53%—also have offerings that include 5G FWA services, up 12 points from the corresponding period in 2023. Due to its speed, its favourability for efficient data management, and minimal latency, 5G is becoming an increasingly sought-after option in FWA subscriptions. As a result, the number of communication service providers offering such services, and therefore charging bundled tariffs, has increased by almost 50% to 40% of the total number of communication service providers also offering FWA subscriptions.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is the second most prevalent 5G usage scenario, after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).

“The June 2024 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows strong growth in 5G subscriptions. Enhanced mobile broadband and FWA connections are the main usage scenarios, with increasing evidence that 5G technology and the capabilities it provides are influencing the FWA offerings made available to consumers by communications service providers. The report also underlines the need for accelerated deployment of 5G Standalone technology in order to use 5G to its full potential,” said Fredrik Jejdling , Executive Vice President & Head of Networks at 爱立信 .

Around 300 communications service providers globally are now offering 5G services, and around 50 of them have launched 5G Standalone (5G SA) networks. 5G subscriptions continue to grow in all regions. Around 160 million 5G subscriptions were added globally in the first three months of 2024 to reach a total of over 1.7 billion. Overall, the number of new subscriptions is expected to be nearly 600 million new subscriptions in 2024. In addition, according to the researchers, 5G subscriptions will total nearly 5.6 billion by the end of 2029—global 5G population coverage outside mainland China is expected to double from 40% at the end of 2023 to 80% by the end of 2029.

By the end of 2029, mobile subscriptions that include 5G capabilities should account for about 60% of all mobile subscriptions globally. Regionally, by the end of 2029, North America would have the highest 5G subscription adoption rate at 90% (430 million). In India, 5G subscriptions would increase from 119 million at the end of 2023 (about 10% of all mobile subscriptions in the country) to about 840 million (65% of all subscriptions). In terms of user experience, statistics from a leading communications service provider show that for 97% of services accessed by users on 5G mid-band frequencies the loading time was up to 1.5 seconds shorter compared to 67% on 5G low-band and 38% on 4G (across all frequency bands). Population coverage on 5G mid-band outside mainland China has reached 35%, while North America and India have made rapid deployments, exceeding 85% and 90% mid-band coverage respectively.

However, the current edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that the forecast growth in annual mobile network data traffic growth will be lower compared to the level reported in November 2023. This is mainly due to changes in some forecast data, such as lower figures reported by regulators and communication service providers in some high-user markets in the second half of 2023. Mobile data traffic volumes increased by 25% year-on-year between end-March 2023 and end-March 2024, with the development mainly driven by subscriber migration to new generations of devices and data-intensive services such as video.

Estimates show mobile data traffic growing at a compound annual growth rate of around 20% by the end of 2029. In 2023, about a quarter of mobile data traffic was carried by 5G technology and this is expected to increase to about 75% by the end of 2029.

Mobile access technology

5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2028. Global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach close to 5.6 billion in 2029, making up 60% of all mobile subscriptions at that time. It is projected that North America will still have the highest 5G penetration in 2029 at 90%, followed closely by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at 89% and Western Europe at 86%. 5G subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2029 are anticipated to exceed 320 million, accounting for 28% of all mobile subscriptions at that time. This has been adjusted upward compared to the previous report, in line with a more positive outlook for the region, supported by spectrum releases in low- and mid-bands and more affordable devices.

At the end of 2023, North America had the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 59%. In Northeast Asia, penetration reached 41%, followed by the GCC countries at 34% and Western Europe at 26%. 5G subscriptions increased by 160 million during the first quarter of 2024, to total 1.7 billion. Subscriptions for 4G now total 5.2 billion, falling by 26 million during Q1 2024. 4G subscriptions are projected to continue declining to around 3 billion by the end of 2029, as subscribers continue to migrate to 5G. During the first quarter, 3G subscriptions declined by 37 million, while 2G subscriptions dropped by 41 million. 2G and 3G network sunsetting continues around the world.

The timeline for this transition varies based on the country and service provider, but the phase-out of 3G networks is anticipated to happen more quickly than for 2G in the coming years. For example, an overwhelming majority of service providers in Europe are currently shutting down 3G networks to reform spectrum for use with 4G and 5G, while maintaining 2G for legacy IoT services.

As shown before, 5G Standalone has been implemented in around 50 networks worldwide. Service providers are promoting it in markets where it is being rolled out, calling it 5G+ in their data plans. In some markets, service providers are starting to make use of the capabilities that 5G SA enables by offering differentiated connectivity services. Some of these services are offered on Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), where minimum speeds or broadband connectivity quality on par with fixed broadband are being guaranteed. Another area targeted with differentiated offerings is uplink-related connectivity—for example services used for live broadcasting or streaming. Such services are aimed at professional and national broadcasters or influencers in need of a more stable uplink for sharing their content on social media platforms.

Some forms of data buckets are available from around 99% of the surveyed service providers, while around 48% offer one or more unlimited data plans to their users. The regional differences are significant and Western Europe has the most, with 89% of service providers having unlimited offerings as part of their plan structure. It is also around three times as common to have unlimited plans among the service providers who have launched 5G compared to those that still only provide a 4G service: 64% versus 22%.