"The Boy Who Cried Wolf" and Bayesian Probability

One of the most famous and well known fables in the world is "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". It was written by Aesop (6th century BCE) as a cautionary tale against false alarms:

"The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When one actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep are eaten by the wolf. In later English-language poetic versions of the fable, the wolf also eats the boy" (from Wikipedia)

It's a simple message, really. If you lie and get caught - people stop believing you. 

Think of your own surroundings. Do you know any "false-alarm boys"?

Maybe it's the co-worker who keeps committing to deadlines but never completes the task in time. Maybe it's the boss who summons you to a 1-on-1 meeting but postpones it time and time again. Maybe it's that friend who has an existential life crisis - twice a week, every week...

What should we do? At which point should we stop trusting them and start assuming every alarm is a false alarm? Or maybe we should be flexible and give them a second (or third) chance?

Bayesian probability might hold the answers.

Read the full post here:

https://lifeinagraph.shalyt.com/2016/11/the-boy-who-cried-wolf-and-bayesian.html

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