Box Box Box

You’ve been fortunate to watch a few of these before, a race that starts dry but finishes wet. All the form guides go out the window, the cars competitive edge is reduced to a level playing field and the viewers shuffle closer to the edge of their seats as the clouds draw closer. Fingernails gone, the strategy team must make the call soon; when to pit and what rubber to fit. Their heart rates rising, they have a few minutes still before the call.

The team boss acts like the Fonz for the cameras, but inside frantic thoughts and questions to the strategy team who are replaying the weather map and watching thick dark clouds from ten miles east of the circuit, while the spotters dotted around the local fields give live intel. Is the rain going to hit the track, when and how much when it starts? We all know rain is inevitable but how much and when is the call that will help win this race.?

The cool wind sweeps across the finish straight, bringing what will be a spectacle. The underdog sees a chance to make the podium by going all in on wets. He relies on the nervousness of the championship contenders wanting to at least maintain their position in the standings, and wondering who will take risks when there’s so much to lose??

The ciliary muscles of the underdog contract as they see the first drops on their visor. It’s time for them and their team to earn their bread.?

The team get straight on the radio, “how much in the bottom corner” half a lap later, “light rain for three minutes, stay out” only for another lap later, “moderate consistent rain coming from turn 5, box box box” - time for the decision that can win or ruin the race even for the most skilled wet driver. What team is going to go full wet or will the better lap times come from intermediate as the clouds haven’t fully unleashed yet... so many permutations…if it’s too wet they risk a DNF or if its too dry, they’ll drop out the points. Dare anyone stay on slicks?

As the drivers dive in to the pit lane, my race ends here and exits towards making EV similarities. Replace the rain with electric vehicles blown from the winds of change via environmentally savvy consumer choices and emission reducing legislation ‘No non-hybrids past 2030 and full EV by 2035’ on the streets of London but what OEM over the next 5 years is going to go full electric or will the better revenues come from a hybrid or dare they even stay on ICE? That’s in the UK alone, every OEM will have different races in different countries to contend with and also in different classifications such as the spectrum of passenger vehicles, LCV, etc

The similarities I see to a wet race and the EV automotive direction are plentiful. The industry has been very stable for 100 years+ using ICE and as such, has never been faced with so much change in such a short space of time. Like a wet race, the traditional Five Forces model is being ripped up with the under dogs taking bigger risks, going all in on one option and with more competition coming from reduced barriers to entry and substitute products, the opportunity of newer OEM’s reaching the podium is much greater than with ICE.?

Not only is the legislation an umbrella worthy rain cloud but consumer choice for EVs is well ahead of previous predictions, the consumers are starting to rain dance but when will consumer behaviour go exponential??

Are there enough rain clouds in the sky to allow it, as in, is the current charging infrastructure & charging times going to mean the demand for EVs is more of a light drizzle then a deluge??

It’s a fascinating industry dynamic with some of the biggest decisions in 100 years being made now, as the late Murray Walker would say "It's Go Go Go!"

For those not familiar with automotive industry jargon, I've added definition of acronyms below:

OEM = original equipment manufacturer, such as LEVC, Aston Martin, Volvo, Geely, Ford etc

ICE = Internal combustion engine

EV = Electric vehicle?