The Bottom Line: The Battle to Reshape Syria & The Middle East Is On, But It Will be Messy

?The fall of Assad's brutal regime is undoubtedly one of the biggest geopolitical events in the Middle East this century. I try to explore its significant consequences here.

?Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of my employer.

The Bottom Line:

·???? The spectacular collapse Bashar Al Assad's rule will trigger a race to reshape Syria and the region. While journalists tend to assign this label to to most conflicts in the region, I think this one deserves the designation.

·???? One reason for that is Syria's position in Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance, and its historical role in Lebanon as well as the Palestinian cause. Instead of confronting Israel directly, Syria has used Lebanese and Palestinian factions since 1973 to improve its negotiating position with Israel, which has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967.

• While the civil war has weakened Syria's regional role, the country has turned into an arena for proxy conflicts (Iran, Israel, US, Russia, Turkey to name a few), and a hotbed for extremist groups. ?

·???? The Assad dynasty ruled Syria for more than 50 years, and leaves a country ravaged by war, poverty, displacement and sectarian tension.

·???? But on the face of it, the biggest loser from Assad’s demise is Iran and its proxies, mainly Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

·???? Syria has been a key ally of Tehran and Hezbollah, indeed Hezbollah’s main conduit for weapons. That's one reason why the Iranian-backed militant group sent thousands of its fighters to help Bashar Al Assad crush the 2011 uprising against his rule.

·???? That would make Israel, Turkey and other Iranian rivals in the region the biggest winners

·???? But this will likely be a chaotic and messy transition. Past uprisings in the Arab world have shown us that opposition groups, once done with their common enemy, eventually turn against each other. Just look at Libya and Iraq. ?

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The Battle for Post-Assad Syria:

·???? Iran has already opened channels with the rebels that deposed Bashar Al-Assad, while Turkey already enjoys influence with HTS, the former al-Qaeda affiliate whose attacks triggered the spectacular collapse of the regime.

·???? Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US and Israel will all undoubtedly try to shape the outcome to their favor.

·???? Some of these countries have a common goal (weakening Iran) while others have a different agenda (for Turkey, it’s the return of Syrian refugees and the crushing of Kurdish groups in Syria).

·???? For a country like the UAE, it might be ensuring that Assad’s regime isn’t replaced with the Muslim Brotherhood or any extremist group.

·???? For Saudi Arabia, it’s not just about weakening Iran, but stopping the production and exports of illegal drugs (Assad had turned territories under his control into a narco state).

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The Lay of the Land:

·???? Syria’s rebel and opposition groups will look at what happened in countries like Iraq and Libya and try to avoid a similar fate.

·???? But these groups are far from united. Shortly after Assad fled the country, fighting erupted between Turkish-backed Arab forces and Kurdish groups.

·???? HTS, the main anti Assad group, is regarded as a terrorist organization by the US and the UK. The US even has a $10 million bounty on its leader, Abu Mohamed Al Jolani.

·???? Al Jolani is now engaged in what marketing professional would call a ``major rebranding” of himself: shedding his Islamist nom de guerre and sticking with his original name: Ahmed Al Sharaa.

·???? It’s hard to picture an immediate future where he isn’t part of the picture, but also hard to see a man with his past becoming president. Syria’s religious minorities are understandably jittery.

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The Grim Inheritance:

·???? Whoever governs Syria must have domestic and international legitimacy to be able to rebuild the country.

·???? Assad has presided over the destruction of the Syrian economy: more than 90% of its people live in poverty.

·???? Some estimates put the cost of reconstruction after 13 years of conflict at $200 billion.

·???? There are already reports of some areas refusing to deal in Syrian pounds, demanding dollars instead.

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All those hopes and fears are playing out among many Syrians …

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·???? You’d struggle to meet any Syrian who would mourn the regime’s collapse

·???? But those that I talk to are worried that things might get much worse before they get better. They may be right.

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The Best of Socials

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This an areal picture of Assad's Sydanya prison, rightly described as one of the world's most notorious prisons.

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?About Me:

I am a Lebanese journalist, commentator and media executive. I run SRMG Academy, the media training arm of Saudi Research and Media Group, where I am also the managing director of content development. Before SRMG, I was Bloomberg News’ managing editor for European economics and the managing editor for the Middle East and North Africa. I worked for Reuters and the Associated Press in various locations, including Dubai, Cairo, London and Beirut.

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