Bosnia-Herzegovina: BiH politicians face major post-election challenge to deliver electoral reform

• Elections to result in changes in composition of BiH presidency
• Main parties of status quo likely to emerge as winners in parliamentary elections
• Government formation in FBiH and BiH to take more time than in RS
• Russia's influence unlikely to be neglected by international community

The general elections in BiH on Oct 2 are unlikely to produce a dramatic change in the political landscape that has been dominated by nationalist parties for years. Yet, hopefully, the elections will set the stage for post-election negotiations on the much needed and well overdue changes to the Election Law on BiH. The pre-election period was marked by heated disputes between Bosniak and Croat parties on the electoral rules, increased secessionist rhetoric by Republika Srpska's senior officials and growing impatience of the High Representative and the international community over the reform deadlock. The electoral dispute brought Bosnian Croats closer to Bosnian Serbs in the defence of their position against Bosniak majority and further deepened the ethnic divisions, which will make government formation even more difficult.

The lack of reliable opinion polls makes it very difficult to predict the outcome of the vote, but scarce surveys indicate that changes would occur in the composition of BiH presidency. While in the RS the government formation should not take long, the formation of governments at FBiH and BiH levels will take time, as before. High Representative Christian Schmidt has warned that he would not allow a scenario of having a government operating in a caretaker mandate for another four years, which is the case now in the Federation, and we suppose that if he gets the backing of the international community, he will not hesitate to act.

Still, the best solution would be BiH leaders to reach an agreement on the electoral reform, instead of Schmidt to use his Bonn powers and impose sweeping reforms without the consent of the local stakeholders. Local politicians will have six months after the formation of all authorities to adopt four key rule of law-related laws as well as electoral and limited constitutional reforms.

RACE FOR TRIPARTITE BIH PRESIDENCY

The BiH presidency will have at least two new members after the elections - a Bosniak and a Serb, since the incumbent members Sefik Dzaferovic (SDA) and Milorad Dodik (SNSD) will not run for the second term.

In the Bosniak camp, the race will be very tight among Bakir Izetbegovic, leader of the largest Bosniak party SDA, and Denis Becirovic (SDP), supported by at least ten opposition parties from FBiH. As for the RS, the frontrunner is incumbent RS President and SNSD candidate Zeljka Cvijanovic. Her main rival is Mirko Sarovic from the opposition SDS, but he is lagging behind, if the scarce opinion polls are to be trusted.

As for the Croat seat, incumbent Croat member Zeljko Komsic (DF) will seek another four-year term. In these elections, he will compete against Borjana Kristo, Deputy President of HDZ BiH, the main Croat party. In the previous elections, HDZ BiH and other parties gathered by the Croat National Assembly (HNS), an umbrella organisation of Bosnian Croat political parties, have refused to recognise Komsic as a legitimate representative of Croats claiming he was elected thanks to the votes of Bosniaks. Another election victory of Komsic would anger HDZ BiH and its partners and they may decide to continue blocking the formation of the authorities. The Croat parties have already warned that if talks on the election law failed, they would seek reorganisation of BiH on a federal basis to ensure the functioning of the state and the equality of the three constituent peoples in the country.

Incumbent Serb member of the presidency Milorad Dodik has estimated that the tight rivalry between Izetbegovic and Becirovic may actually benefit Kristo, whom he sees as a good pick to team up with Cvijanovic in the presidency. This will change the balance of powers in the presidency since up to now the Bosniak and the Croat members were joining forces against Dodik.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

As we have already mentioned, the outcome of the Sunday's vote regarding the results of individual parties is hard to predict but we expect the main parties SDA, HDZ BiH and SNSD to emerge as winners thanks to their well-developed party infrastructure, but also likely low turnout.

A poll conducted by Ipsos in July and September for the needs of the international community confirms that the three parties will be leading in BiH, FBiH and RS parliaments.

However, whoever wins the Oct 2 general elections, it will not be able to rule alone and will have to make coalition deals, which, given the track record from the past, suggests that the government formation will be a lengthy process. A key to government formation in the FBiH and BiH will be the electoral reform that should tackle the indirect elections for the House of Peoples of FBiH, the upper legislative house. These reforms should guarantee that Bosniaks do not pick delegates who should represent Croats, whereas Croats do not block government formation and decision making.

CONCLUSION

The main post-election challenges for the local politicians, who win the elections, will be the electoral reform and dealing with the high inflation and unemployment rate. Making progress on reforms required for the country's EU integration will also be crucial. Another challenge for BiH and the High Representative will be the growing secessionist rhetoric of pro-Russian Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik who is pushing more and more for independence of the entity amid the dysfunctional state of BiH. Unfortunately, the moves of Russia that has been backing Dodik are unpredictable so the international community will have to stay alert for possible destabilisation efforts in BiH and the Western Balkans.