Border crossings dropped. Is Biden right about cause?

This week:??Donald Trump’s Pants on Fire “Lock her up” denial … Why Trump will (most likely) vote in November after felony conviction … What the conviction means for Trump’s ability to travel as a potential head of state … Joe Biden’s assertion about Trump’s Obamacare position needs context … A dustup at Denali National Park over a U.S. flag

Biden announces new asylum policy with a claim about migrant crossings. The trend needs context.

President Joe Biden issued a new directive to limit the number of migrants seeking asylum at the southern U.S. border.?

The Biden administration’s June 4 directive suspends and limits the entry of certain noncitizens into the U.S. across the southern border when the Homeland Security secretary determines that there has been an average of 2,500 encounters or more at the border over seven consecutive days. To halt the suspension, the numbers would have to drop to fewer than 1,500 encounters on average seven days in a row.?

Encounters data represents events, not people. For example, if one person tries to cross the border three times and is stopped each time, that would be counted as three encounters. This data also doesn’t tell us how many people stayed in the U.S.

The order takes effect immediately because current daily encounters exceed 2,500, according to the administration.

In a speech at the White House, Biden said the numbers of encounters are dropping already.

"The facts are clear, due to the arrangements that I've reached with (Mexican) President (Andrés Manuel López) Obrador, the number of migrants coming … to our shared border unlawfully in recent months has dropped dramatically," Biden said. "While these steps are important, they're not enough to truly secure the border."

We found that the encounter numbers have dropped in recent months amid increased interceptions by Mexico. But immigration experts told PolitiFact it's difficult to pinpoint one reason for any change in migration numbers.?

We rated the claim Mostly True .?

The White House pointed to the latest publicly available data from the U.S. Border Patrol showing immigration officials encountered people illegally crossing the border about 128,900 times in April compared with about 250,000 in December. That’s a 48.4% decrease. The numbers of encounters at ports of entry have also dropped.

During a May 13 news conference, López Obrador said the number of migrants reaching the southern U.S. border had dropped by about 50%.

David Bier, immigration studies director at the libertarian Cato institute, said Biden is correct to attribute border encounter declines to actions by Mexico, but offered a caveat.

"Mexico is making unprecedented arrests," Bier said. "I believe that it is unsustainable because, although Mexico is arresting them and sending them to southern Mexico, they are not deporting them to their home countries.”

Without much else to do in Mexico, the migrants could keep trying to get to the U.S., Bier said.

Adam Isacson, defense oversight director at Washington Office on Latin America, a group advocating for human rights in the Americas, said “there is no reason to think that this drop will be long-lasting, especially considering the number of migrants who are likely stranded in Mexico right now.”

"No crackdown in the last 10 years has had a lasting impact, not even Title 42," he said. Title 42 is a public health policy invoked during the COVID-19 pandemic to decrease the number of migrants entering the U.S.

We will publish more stories about Biden’s policy today. What are your questions about the executive order and what it will mean for immigration into the U.S.? Send them to us at [email protected] and we’ll investigate.

— Samantha Putterman and Amy Sherman

Fact-checks of the week

• ‘Terminate’ update. President Joe Biden has warned voters that former President Donald Trump would take away their health care if he regains the White House. “In his words, he wants to ‘terminate’ the Affordable Care Act,” Biden said May 19 in Detroit. We rated the claim Half True . Trump has used that word, and more. He campaigned on a promise to repeal Obamacare in 2016 and kept that anti-ACA position throughout his term. In July 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court dismissed a case from Republican-led states and the former Trump administration that had asked justices to block the law. In late 2023, Trump renewed his vow to replace Obamacare multiple times. What Biden omits, however, is that Trump publicly announced a change in position in March, saying instead he wants to make the ACA "better," without further details.? ?
• Trump’s false tax claim. In a June 2 "Fox & Friends Weekend" interview, the first after his felony conviction, Donald Trump said President Joe Biden wants “to quadruple your taxes," a claim he has been making since at least 2020. But Trump’s claim is False . Independent analyses say Biden’s proposed tax increases for fiscal year 2025 would amount to about $4.4 trillion over 10 years. Under current policy, and without Biden’s proposed changes, the U.S. is projected to collect $62.6 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. So, Biden’s policies would increase tax collections by about 7%, which is a whole lot less than "quadruple." ?
• His vote will likely count. Claims about Donald Trump’s voting eligibility in his home state of Florida followed the May 30 verdict by a jury in New York. "Trump can’t vote for himself in the November election," Florida state Sen. Jason Pizzo, D-Sunny Isles Beach, wrote on X postverdict. "He can thank Florida Republicans for that." This is premature and against the odds, so it rates Mostly False . Trump’s ability to vote hinges on whether he is in prison on Election Day. According to Florida law, New York’s laws for people with felonies voting would apply to Trump. In New York, people convicted of felonies lose the right to vote only while incarcerated. Many legal experts have expressed doubt that Trump will be sentenced to prison because the charge is a nonviolent, low-level felony and he has no previous convictions.

Can felony convictions hinder Trump’s international travel? Here’s what we know.

Our team hustled to answer questions and address misleading statements after former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction came down May 30.

In the past week, our team:

• Fact-checked his half-hour of remarks at Trump Tower, the site where he launched his first presidential bid nine years ago, and where he repeated false claims about elections and a 187-year jail sentence.

• Explained why Trump’s felony conviction bars him from owning a gun.?

• Answered questions about the sentencing and appeal process ahead.

And a lot more .

One claim from social media users took longer to iron out: How will Trump’s felony conviction affect his ability to travel internationally??

Social media users claimed there were dozens of countries that Trump can no longer enter because of his conviction.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced July 11. Judge Juan Merchan has the power to impose travel restrictions at that time, limiting Trump’s travel outside the U.S.??

Many countries have rules barring people convicted of felonies from entering. However, those rules vary widely and many leave room for exemptions. If Trump is again elected president and visits a country on official business, he would likely be granted entry, but it’s not guaranteed, experts said.

Countries have discretion about when and how to admit foreigners

Many countries singled out in the social media posts about Trump limit entry for foreigners who have been convicted of felonies. Factors considered in whether to grant entry include the type of crime, when it occurred and the sentence length.

For example, Australia’s visitor travel requirements stipulate that "you must not have any criminal convictions for which the sentences total 12 months or more, whether or not you have served the sentences."?

Israel and the United Kingdom also can bar people convicted of felonies from visiting. The U.K. restrictions factor in the sentence length and conviction timing.

It’s unclear whether Trump's felony conviction will affect his ability to travel to Trump International Golf Links in Scotland, which is part of the United Kingdom. When asked about how a potential visit from Trump may be handled, the U.K.'s Home Office said it does not comment on individual cases.

Harold Hongju Koh, a Yale University international law professor, said Trump’s travel to other countries as a former, and potentially future, head of state "would depend on how that country chooses to administer its entry laws."

Even sitting heads of state, he said, don’t have "an affirmative right that entitles" them to enter a country, although Trump would have diplomatic immunity in other countries if he’s reelected.

"China, where President Xi Jinping has broad executive authority, could decide to admit him between now and November as a former U.S. president who also could be a future U.S. president," Koh said. "But that would be based on a discretionary act of the Chinese executive under Chinese law, not on any general rule of international law."

Evelyn Cruz, an Arizona State University law professor who directs the university’s immigration clinic, said all countries have admission rules and it’s possible Trump might need a waiver for any country he seeks to visit.

She noted the U.S. has a similar diplomatic policy and has let in people accused or convicted of war crimes to attend United Nations gatherings.

Diplomatic immunity holds that certain government officials are not subject to jurisdiction of local courts and other authorities for their official duties, a 2018 U.S. State Department guide said. In the U.S., a head of state automatically qualifies for an A1 visa, regardless of the visit’s purpose.?

Similar travel questions arose when former President George W. Bush ran for president in 2000. One news report said he was granted special permission to enter Canada because he acknowledged a 1976 misdemeanor DUI charge, for which he had pleaded guilty and paid a fine. A Canada Border Services Agency spokesperson told PolitiFact the agency doesn’t comment on individual cases.

To examine the travel challenges Trump might face, we also examined how the U.S.’ northern and southern neighbors handle convicted felons entering their countries. Keep reading to learn about the rules in Canada and Mexico.

— Jeff Cercone, with Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu, Caryn Baird, Sara Swann, Loreben Tuqero and Sofia Ahmed contributing.

Quick links to more fact-checks & reports

• Which judges will hear Donald Trump’s appeal? It’s too early to know , so don’t take a viral photo of five judges as gospel.
• No, North Carolina’s chief justice isn't removing judges from elected positions. Read PolitiFact North Carolina’s fact-check .
• Did Denali National Park in Alaska ban American flags? No. Here’s what happened .
• Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said people shouldn’t trust early polling. His position is more nuanced than that, PolitiFact Wisconsin reported .
• No, Donald Trump didn’t “blow off his postsentencing probation report.” A Threads post ignores the realities of the presentence process .

Do you smell smoke??

Here's your Pants on Fire fact-check of the week:?Donald Trump denied saying, “Lock her up,” on Fox News. But Trump said Hillary Clinton should to go to jail at least 7 times .

See what else we've rated Pants on Fire this week.?

Have questions or ideas for our coverage? Send me an email at [email protected] .

Thanks for reading!

Katie Sanders

PolitiFact Editor-in-Chief