A Book A Day - Weekly Digest 28

Fool Proof by?Tess Wilkinson-Ryan

??Key takeaway??

Showing data is not neutral, there is always someone with an intent behind. Know your biases and know your stats.

???Key ideas??

Being played for a fool is a universal human experience. A team of experimental psychologists coined the term sugrophobia, a mix of sucking and fear for this phenomenon. Falling for a con engages two uncomfortable conditions: regret and alienation. Regret, because we have an active role in our misfortune. Alienation: because we feel our social standing, respect has suffered. It feels like there is a winner and a loser.

Racial, ethnic, and gender stereotypes help ensure the social order by providing “legitimizing myths” that confirm hierarchies that are already in place. People that are typically seen as having less power (women, people of color) are seen as both scammers and marks at the same time. Women: an easily misled woman buying a car, or a gold digger. During slavery time, Black people were considered foolish and incapable to care for themselves, yet also ready to revolt and cheating the owners of their money.

Scams by people in positions of power are often referred to as something else. It takes an enormous mental burden to believe that the world is unfair, because it is depressing, unsettling. People adapt their feelings to create the illusion of a just world: just-world bias As a result we pay far more attention to small individual cons vs large ones like big corporations. If we accept the big ones, we would feel that we live in a world where we're constantly being conned.

The fear of being a sucker largely determines who we’re willing to trust and who we keep at arm’s length. If you are victim of a scam, it will affect the next time someone asks you for a favor. That translates in a fear of taking risks and getting it wrong, which affects our judgment. It is far cheaper to provide free apartments to homeless people to keep them off the streets and cut down health care costs than leave them there. But people are reluctant as they feel they are being taken advantage of (tax money for free riders). We end up with far less efficient public welfare programs.

It’s not about whether or not threats exist, but rather which ones actually deserve your attention. Focus on your values rather than your fears. If a student asks a professor for an extension on an assignments because of a death in the family. The professor can act on his fear that the student is trying to con her. Or come back to his value of trust and believe the student. Even if not true, there is probably a good reason behind it. The impact is also minor. Don't go trusting anyone anytime, but judge whether a threat deserves your attention. Next time, check your personal goals, values, beliefs, and what you can both gain.

#ABookADay?#readingbooks?#foolproof?#scams

The Polymath by?Waqas Ahmed

??Key takeaway??

A polymath does not have to be a genius, it can be you, exploring all your potential interests and integrating them into your life. Specialization does not prepare us for a constantly changing world.

???Key ideas??

In early societies, we needed to be practical generalists, in order to survive and adapt to hostile environments (heal, hunt, build). As children, we act and play as polymaths, curious about the world. It is inherent to us, it's good for us, and good for those around us.

The capacity to think polymathically is essential to tackling many of today's major challenges. Climate change: synthesize advances in science, political policy, smart economics. Famous examples: Shen Kuo of the Chinese Song Dynasty (science, statesman, poet, painter, musician). Churchill (Literature, statesman).

30 million workdays lost in 2018 in the UK due to back, neck, muscle problems. The sedentary, specialized desk-job does not make us move. A survey of 18 countries showed that 50% of workers felt their work was not challenging enough. 60% of workers would follow a different career path if they would start from scratch.

Specialists animals, like the koala (eating only eucalyptus leaves) become endangered vs generalist animals like the raccoon (eating eggs, berries, small animals). Same for humans, people with a wide range of skills, talents, are better equipped for a volatile world (AI, etc.). Adaptability is key.

To become a polymath, you need to develop what's within you. It's your true self with your unique inspirations, ideas. Your curiosity is rooted in biology, let it out like da Vinci, Einstein. Intelligence is also key, diversify your interests, activities, it will increase your IQ.

Change is the only constant. Our brains are wired to re-wire themselves when facing new experiences. Creativity depends on synthesis of insights, ideas from various fields. Divisions that separate different fields of knowledge are illusory, reality itself is one single whole.

In Papua New Guinea traditional cultures, there is no formal instruction. Knowledge is acquired as part of social life, play among adults, other children. That creates lots of curiosity, creativity. University comes from the Latin universitas meaning universal or whole. Education is supposed to be holistic. More exposure for children is the way to go.

To indulge in polymathy, you can pursue different careers in sequence. Or you can do this simultaneously, with a portfolio career. It can also secure multiple sources of revenue and a safety net. Or take a polymathic profession like journalism, politics, entrepreneurship.

#polymath

Obedience to Authority by Stanley Milgram

??Key takeaway??

We sometimes erroneously place trust in our "superior" morals and ethical standards and our own humanity to save us from being cruel.

???Key ideas??

Obeying authority has led to some of the most heinous crimes in human history. The Holocaust, where most Germans did not resist Hitler's government. The Vietnam War, with napalm bombs incinerating innocent civilians. People doing those said they were just following orders.

Stanley Milgram sought reasons for human obedience through experiments. Three people: the experimenter (lab coat man), the learner (actor posing as volunteer), the naive subject/teacher (who volunteered and was tested for readiness to obey). The learner and teacher were separated by a partition. The teacher was instructed by the experimenter to help the learner learn word pairs by administering electric shock each time the learner was wrong. Shocks from 15 (tolerable) to 450 (deadly) volts with pain levels written on generator. The teacher was encouraged to continue through the different shock levels, even when hearing screaming from the learner. No shocks were actually administered but the teacher did not know.

26 out of 40 subjects complied up until 450 volts. The rest complied even at very high shock levels before disobeying. The subjects saw the experimenter as an authority as the experiment was at Yale University, and he had a lab coat. We are groomed to obey authority figures. Disobedience leads to conflict, which we try to avoid.

People obeying enter an agentic state: the responsibility for their actions shifted to something external, the experimenter. It absolves the subject of feelings of guilt, responsibility.

In a second experiment, the experimenter left and was replaced by a second teacher (actor), who encouraged the shocks the same way as the experimenter. Here the subjects rebelled against the teacher/actor called cruel, sadistic, horrible. The experimenter was seen as acting for a higher reason.

In variations of the experiment, where the experimenter would leave the room and give orders by phone, Some subjects tried to lessen the shocks and help the learner, yet didn’t dare to openly disobey the authority. The subjects did not enjoy harming the other person, they felt stress.

In another variation, subjects were told that the shock would be administered through them moving the hand of the learner to be in contact with a shock plate. Here more subjects disobeyed (70%). They had to face the consequence of their actions directly.

Disobedience happened when people broke free of the internal conflict between obeying the experimenter and their own morale code. Some Germans acted as heroes hiding families of Jews or working in the resistance. We can be moral and ethical despite inhumane commands of authority.

#authority?#obedience

Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me) by Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson

??Key takeaway??

To err is human, to forgive divine.

???Key ideas??

Have you ever munched on an entire pack of potato chips? You probably found some good excuses for why you did it (rough week). We want to reduce cognitive dissonance, the unpleasant idea of two conflicting ideas (the healthy you, the indulging you). Hence self-justification, which can lead to clinging to our beliefs.

We use confirmation bias to find evidence that supports our original view. Lack or contrary evidence can become evidence itself. Our morality can change though those biases and the pyramid of choice, the more we go into one direction, the more we justify it (adultery for example).

We tend to bias our memories to better suit our current situation (behaviour, belief). We even have false memories, of events that never happened (alien encounters which were sleep paralysis due to tiredness). We need to check historical facts and accounts to confirm what really happened.

Have you ever had a doctor tell you they made a mistake with your diagnostic? Medical mistakes tend to not be recognized or deliberately hidden. Doctors want to avoid be seen as incompetent, insecure, or sue for malpractice. If that happens for a scientific field, it becomes a closed loop, with no further improvements.

The criminal justice system also makes mistakes due to the self-justification of its actions. Studies show that 15-25% of exonerated prisoners had confessed to crimes not committed. But the system argues that those are a small exception to the rule that innocent people never confess. Reform is needed as we ll as use of new technologies (DNA testing).

One way to avoid cognitive dissonance is to shift blame for our mistakes to our partners. Which leads to conflicts and break-ups. When we don't confront our problems honestly, we descend into blame game, looking at the others' flaws. To fight this, separate the person from the mistake. Give the same lenient treatment to others as you do for yourself.

In a crisis, governments create self-justifications for their erroneous actions by blaming their enemies. With blame exchange, the conflict escalates (Israel, Palestine). If parties accept their mistakes, the tendency spreads and the conflict can be resolved. Like the reconciliation commission in South Africa after the end of Apartheid.

Admitting mistakes is not weakness, it is a way to learn from them and resolve cognitive dissonance. Like education system in Asia, were mistakes are expected, but not in the US where it is embarrassing. Open yourself to criticism from others and the evidence of your mistakes. You will also get more respect.

#mistakes

Farsighted by Steven Johnson

??Key takeaway??

How we make the decisions that matter the most.

???Key ideas??

We all fall prey to our blind spots while making decisions, even George Washington. Example of Washington in 1776. Many parameters considered for an incoming battle. Tried to defend New York but should not have done that as British stronger. Loss aversion was in action. Once he began losing he retreated his forces.

Good decisions arise from considering diverse points of view from a diverse range of people. Water department of Greater Vancouver area. Different possibilities to expand freshwater resources. Talked to many different stakeholders to come to the final solution. This worked because possible advantages and disadvantages of each solution are clarified and processed by all. Studies by Samuel Sommer - juries decisions, diverse juries better at coming to decisions, whether mostly whites would act with biases.

The average human can't predict the future and experts are even worse at it. Philip Tetlock, forecasting tournament 20 years ago, 28,000 predictions. Compared with two algorithm: one that predicted nothing would change, and the other predicting that things would change at the same pace as before. Human predictions almost always less accurate than standard forecast predicting continuation of current trends. Experts are even worse than the average Joe because they could not get out of their own fields

Future events depend on unpredictable converging factors, which aren't always predictable from current trends. George Orwell 1984: predicting fascism would continue. Various factors converge to make things like computer emerge

Using red teams assists in planning and prediction, even in covert operations. Red team: group within an organisation and acting like an enemy, fighting the main path. Same for planning an attack, and getting the red team to put themselves in the shoes of the attacked. Example of Bin Laden operation.

Governments use cost-benefit analysis for decision-making, even for environmental protection. Reagan example: implementing cost-benefit analysis across the US government. Obama: environmental protection, social costs of carbon dioxide emissions. 36 USD per ton of carbon dioxide as a cost.

Linear value modelling supports decision-making, no matter whether you're a human or a machine. This method maps out possible options and weighs them according to the value you give to them. 0 is unimportant, 1 is very important. Then each situation is weighed with probability of occurrence. Multiply one by the other. Example of self-driving car and weight-value system.

Mathematical decision-making has its limits but mulling things over will still get you a long way. Mathematics is not the only way. Mulling something over: allow enough time to think about different options. Give yourself a rest after considering all the options. As the brain can then process in the background. Bin Laden capture - intuition was still needed at the end on the 50% probability that it was him.

#decisions #forecasting