The Book That Changed My Life

Many years ago, when studying for my PhD in management, I stumbled across a field I hadn’t heard about before – systems theory. I immersed myself in it and read everything I could lay my hands on. I saw systems theory as the meta theory for all social science disciplines – like economics, sociology, psychology and management. In fact, I felt it made them all obsolete. But after my feet again touched the ground, I realized that systems theory wouldn’t dispense with these other disciplines. It would supplement them.

What is Systems Theory?

General systems theory is concerned with how systems of all types – biological, physical and social – operate and evolve. One systems theory term that really has stuck with me is equifinality. This is “the principle that in open systems a given end state can be reached by many potential means.” I found this liberating, I think because my original studies had been in engineering at – a discipline that leans towards maximizing and defining one correct method as a guiding principle.

Systems theory has influenced my thinking, research, writing and consulting since that time. It has led, for instance, to the development of my strategy design and performance measurement method called the Strategic Factor System which is based on an organization’s relationship with its key stakeholders.

Systems theory has influenced my thinking, research, writing and consulting since that time.

The Perils of Population

In recent years I’d become despondent about the world’s development and specifically about the impact that population growth was having on the environment through species depletion, pollution and other human impacts. I used to refer to population growth as the “elephant in the room” when we discussed global warming, the bleaching of coral reefs, and the changes in climate. I’d moan about it.

Hearing all this, early in 2019 my son introduced me to a book published the year before called Factfulness by Hans Rosling. (He has summarized this in an excellent video.) What Rosling showed is that contrary to my fears about population growth, birth rates around the globe are decreasing. This is occurring in Christian and Muslim countries and in developed and developing nations. Did you know, for example, that Iran’s birth rate is less than that of the United States? We’ve reached “peak child” as Rosling labelled it.

The major driver of this dramatic fall in birth rates is the education of women. This is backed by better information about birth control, an awareness of different models of married life other than the stay-at-home mum, and the improvement in national health systems. The lower birth rate has been accompanied by a lower mortality rate among children. The message has gone out around the world that having a small family is okay and that smaller families will save the planet.The message has gone out around the world that having a small family is okay and that smaller families will save the planet.

The message has gone out around the world that having a small family is okay and that smaller families will save the planet.

Corrections in the System

So how does this relate to systems theory?

Viewed from outer space and at a macro level we can see that “the system” is correcting itself. The rate of growth in the world’s population is slowing to reach a desired end point: global survival. In many nations, like Japan, the correction has been severe. Japan’s birth rate is now below the replacement level of 2.1. It’s not alone. We’re now facing the prospect of having to rewrite the economics textbooks that were based on continued population growth. How does the world cope with continued deflation?

The result is that I now look with renewed hope on the future of the world’s population. Families have decided that small is beautiful. While at a macro level the system appears to have corrected itself, we must remember that it got there through millions of micro interactions and individual actions.

The result is that I now look with renewed hope on the future of the world’s population. 

Climate Change and Systems Theory

How might this paradigm transfer to our current dominant issue – climate change? Ideas and solutions abound. The thrust, to curtail emissions growth and to wind back carbon dioxide emissions, has parallels in the population growth and limits debate. But in a self-correcting “systems” way this too will be solved – although there’s no room for complacency. Viewed from outer space you can see the wheels of change turning and, in most countries, the shift from carbon fuels to renewables is happening. As humans we seem to have to look over the precipice before acting.

Sadly, Hans Rosling died in 2017. One legacy for me from his inspiring work is a compulsion to check the facts. Don’t rely on peoples’ inklings about things. As he amply demonstrates in his book and videos, our impressions about the world are usually out of date – and wrong. So, thank you Hans Rosling for opening my eyes to the facts that contradicted my false ideas. Thank you also for allowing me, many years later, to link my study of systems theory to your data about population growth and to other macro changes in the world.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Graham Kenny, CEO of Strategic Factors, is a recognized expert in strategy who helps managers, executives, and boards create successful organizations in the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors. You can connect to or follow him on LinkedIn.