The Bond Market: Why You Should Care

A few weeks ago, a handful of us Amplify folks attended the Austin Business Journal’s ATX Ahead conference. It was a busy morning with a lot of talk about the future of Austin, but one speaker stood out to me: Joe Seydel, Executive Director — Senior Markets Economist at JP Morgan. He was there to get everyone focused on the changes in the bond market. The bond market, he said, is the one thing that everyone should be paying attention to in 2025.

And you know? He’s absolutely right.

Now look, I get it. When someone says “bond market,” a lot of eyes glaze over. It feels like something only financial pros need to worry about — the magic math behind money, not money itself. But here’s the thing: the bond market isn’t just Wall Street noise. It’s the reason your car loan or mortgage costs what it does. And if you care about your wallet, you should care about this.

Here’s the simple version:

Car Loans: The 2-Year Treasury yield sets the tone. When it moves up, so do car loan rates.

Mortgages: The 10-Year Treasury yield is the driver here. If it’s climbing, expect your home loan to cost more.

Treasuries are considered “risk-free” because they’re backed by the U.S. government. But when you take out a loan—whether for a car, a house or a small business—the bank adds a spread to that Treasury rate to account for risk. If Treasuries climb, so do your costs. And lately, those yields have been moving fast.

Why You Should Care

Every financial decision you make, big or small, ties back to the bond market. Timing matters. When yields are up, borrowing gets more expensive. When they fall, you might score a better rate. You don’t need to be a financial expert to use this knowledge to your advantage — it’s just about paying attention to the right signals.

If you’re thinking about financing a car or buying a home, even a little awareness can mean a lot of saved cash. You wouldn’t make a major purchase without checking reviews or comparing prices, right? The same logic applies here.

What’s Happening Now

The Federal Reserve decided to hold off on interest rate cuts in its latest announcement. For now, the 10-year treasury bond yields are staying in the 4.4% to 4.6% range while the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. That doesn’t change the bigger picture. Treasury yields will keep moving based on economic conditions and that movement will keep influencing the cost of loans.

Here’s the Bottom Line

At the end of the day, the bond market’s gonna do what it’s gonna do, and there’s not much any of us can do to influence those trends. But knowing how interest rates tie back to the bond market can make loan rates feel a little less arbitrary. If you’re planning to borrow, paying attention to bond market trends can help you make better decisions and keep more money in your pocket. Knowing when to act isn’t luck. It's a strategy.

That’s what our team at Amplify has to offer. Whether you’re buying your first car or your second home, we’re pretty good at helping our borrowers understand how all the pieces fit together. So even if you’re still only lukewarm on this whole bond market thing, you at least know we’ll do our best to help you make smarter decisions with your money.

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