Bolt's Missteps in Entering the Botswana Market: A Cautionary Tale

This article serves as a warning to other tech companies planning to enter not just Botswana, but any market where the nuances and dynamics differ significantly from what they may be accustomed to. By learning from Bolt’s missteps, they can better position themselves for success.

As a consultant for tech companies eyeing expansion into African markets, particularly within the SADC region, I've observed a pattern: many firms underestimate the nuanced differences between these markets and other regions in Africa. While the SADC region might be more economically developed on a per capita basis, it presents its own set of unique challenges. This was glaringly evident in Bolt's recent entry into the Botswana market, a situation that is further highlighted by similar issues that ride-hailing platforms are currently facing in other markets such as Nigeria and Kenya.

In 2024, Bolt became the second international ride-hailing platform to enter Botswana after inDrive. Launched in 2019, inDrive disrupted Botswana's public transport market by gaining explosive traction in 2022, further choosing to strategically delay its revenue generation through commissions until early 2024, after hitting critical driver and rider milestones. The timing couldn't have been better, as Bolt was launching in the same year, the new entrant hoping to capitalize on the traction generate by inDrive's platform.

However, despite an early influx of drivers due to the oversaturation on inDrive (where response times are so fast that drivers often need to make 7-9 attempts to secure a ride), Bolt quickly lost momentum. The initial allure of Bolt's platform was its ride allocation process, which provides a much better experience for drivers by directly assigning rides to the nearest driver, saving significant time— and as we know, time is money for drivers.

Therein lay the first of many missteps for the platform in Botswana. Bolt's launch fares were 60% lower than standard taxi fares and 30% lower than inDrive fares, a fact drivers only discovered after completing rides. Unlike inDrive, Bolt did not display fares to drivers in advance, nor did it provide a map with ride requests—only a dropoff address. This led to drivers belatedly realizing that they were being paid significantly below the breakeven for rides of certain durations and distances. The result? Poor experiences for both drivers and riders—much like the situations currently being experienced by both drivers and riders in Nigeria and Kenya.

Despite copious amounts of feedback from drivers, and significant social media chatter, Bolt failed to address these disparities, resulting in a mass exodus back to inDrive. Consequently, passengers on Bolt have found themselves unable to secure drivers, leading to a market perception that Bolt is a waste of time. In stark contrast, inDrive continues to fulfill requests on average every 1.3 seconds during peak and every 28-45 seconds during off-peak hours.

Bolt's attempt to resolve the driver shortage was also ill-conceived. Their digital marketing campaign targeting drivers touted a salary aligned with official statistics for average income in the country. However, this figure was significantly lower than what drivers were earning on inDrive—approximately half. Given the costs of fuel, maintenance, and the need for profit, Bolt’s offer was inadequate and unappealing.

The primary reasons for Bolt's failures to-date can be boiled down to three core issues. First, Bolt did not conduct thorough research to understand the dynamics underpinning official statistics, such as average incomes, consumer price inflation, and the realities of living costs in Botswana. Second, they failed to account for the groundwork that inDrive had laid in educating and developing both drivers' and riders' understanding of the mechanics of ridesharing. Being the first mover gave inDrive a significant advantage that Bolt underestimated. Third, Bolt's reluctance to integrate driver feedback and correlate it with key user metrics like response times, churn rates, and trip numbers demonstrated a lack of proper analysis and strategic planning.

For future endeavors, it is essential for platforms such as Bolt to delve deeply into the unique dynamics of Southern African markets before launch. This includes understanding not just the economic indicators, but also the cultural, social, and behavioral patterns that drive both users and service providers, that are oftentimes, very different to those in other African regions. Additionally, continuously engaging with local stakeholders—especially those on the ground, will provide invaluable insights that can help shape a more effective and responsive strategy. Lastly, recognizing and adapting to the successes and challenges of local competitors can offer critical lessons that will help avoid the pitfalls that Bolt has encountered in Botswana.