Bolstering Africa’s Urban Infrastructure in a Sustainable Manner

I first visited Nairobi, which means “cool water” in the language of the Masai, in 1986. It was a tranquil, green, and pleasant city, with a population of just over a million. Traffic was light, serious crime was rare, and the city’s future seemed promising. I’ve been back a couple of times since then, most recently in 2022. The city is still promising, but in a more frenetic, crowded way. First time visitors might think it is bursting at the seams. It is the economic powerhouse of Kenya, which in turn, powers East Africa. The population, which grows over 4% a year, has probably surpassed 5 million, but no one knows for sure, since much of the growth is unplanned. By some estimates half of the people now live in informal settlements (known as slums to those not forced to live there), including Kigera, one of the largest in Africa, with anywhere from 250,000 – 500,000 inhabitants.

So what has happened to the “cool water”? It is still there, but few have steady access to it. Only 40% of the population has water connections and they work only 40% of the time. The others, the poor, the tens of thousands in Kigera, have to go to water kiosks and end up paying more than the rich. Then in April 2016 there was suddenly too much water. After three hours of heavy rains, flash floods caused by antiquated drainage pipes clogged with garbage, as well as random construction along waterways, submerged large parts of Nairobi. As usual, the poor, living in low lying areas, suffered the most. And then it happened gain, exactly two years later, in April 2018.?

It’ not the only city with such problems, they occur all over Africa, and that is a tremendous challenge since public services and infrastructure cannot keep pace. But it is also an opportunity, since urbanization contributes to more efficient and dynamic economic development.

Among the most urgent needs in cities are transport, electricity, and water and sanitation. These must be improved as soon as possible. But they must be improved, not using yesterday’s technology, but tomorrow’s. This will assure their longevity and adaptability and make them environmentally sustainable. For another problem in Africa is that it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, so it must grow without contributing to it further. ?

While Africa is still predominantly rural, with 60% of its population living in the countryside, urbanization is dramatically reshaping the continent. The urban population doubled between 1995 and 2015 and is projected to reach 1 billion by 2040. At this growth rate, Lagos could become the world’s largest city by 2050, with a staggering 85 million inhabitants!

Most of this growth has been unplanned, which has led to sprawling megacities with grossly inadequate infrastructure. Estimates of yearly infrastructure investment needs in Africa range as high as $100 billion, of which a large portion is needed by cities. So far, only about one third of urban infrastructure needs through 2050 have been met.

This infrastructure deficit has taken on new urgency in the face of climate change, with cities grappling with an increasing number of natural disasters. Facing this threat, donors, governments, and private investors need to reorient their approach to infrastructure investment, prioritizing city-focused projects that meet the growing needs while increasing climate resilience.

For example, renewable energy for cities could help fill Africa’s chronic energy deficit, while reducing future carbon emissions, meeting both the Paris Climate goals and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Indeed, if the Goal of "making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable" could be met, the lives of millions of Africans would be vastly improved. For this, appropriate infrastructure is a key ingredient.

One solution is off-grid solar, which can provide power to urban dwellers in hard to reach informal settlements. The falling cost of solar panels is making this increasingly viable, and smaller off-grid systems are less prone to disruption from natural disasters. Combined with on-grid renewables from larger solar, wind, geo-thermal, or hydro plants, renewable energy is an adaptive and cost-effective energy solution for Africa’s cities.

It is crucial that the majority of urban infrastructure be made resilient to the natural disasters stemming from climate change, such as storms, floods, droughts, and landslides. Moreover, poorly constructed or antiquated infrastructure in rapidly urbanizing areas can intensify climate risks and vulnerability. For example, erratic rainfall patterns coupled with outdated water management systems have made floods a regular occurrence in most African cities, not just Nairobi.

Similarly, climate resilience needs to be factored into the design and planning of hydropower projects supplying cities to assure long-term sustainability. In a worst case drought scenario, revenue losses of hydropower projects could range as high as 60 percent, making them less attractive to investors and leading to dramatic power cuts that can cripple economies.

Despite higher initial costs, investing in climate resilient urban infrastructure will lead to cost-savings over the long-term. A business-as-usual approach is foolhardy. Innovation and scaling of financing instruments is urgently needed. However, finance for sustainable urban infrastructure is hindered by many of the same barriers as infrastructure in general. These can include market failures, short-term thinking, politics, lack of capacity, and especially lack of bankable projects that can attract private investors. In addition, most African cities have limited capacity to plan, budget, and secure finance for large projects. Therefore, they tend to rely on national governments, whose policies or politics may not be aligned, creating conflicts and regulatory uncertainty, which can scare off investors.

However, these hurdles – which are common even in advanced economies -- can be overcome. National governments must be made aware of the opportunity cost of not investing enough in urban infrastructure and should be cajoled by donors to take a long-term apolitical approach. They must build down regulatory barriers and create a welcoming investment climate for the private investors that are so urgently needed. Development finance institutions can act as conveners and financiers to help kick-start projects.

All this is urgent. Population growth in Africa is slowing slightly, but the urban migration continues. We must assure that urban growth is well planned, with the appropriate infrastructure, preserving the continent’s natural resources while giving the migrants the economic opportunity they seek. ?