10 bold predictions for the future of sports media, post Covid 19 crisis

1- The sponsorship crisis will expose fundamental business model flaws for many sports leagues

ROI is often a dirty acronym in sports sponsorship. This global crisis is already forcing companies to drastically cut sponsorship spending. If a league cannot provide evidence for the direct value they create, with analytics to support their claim, chances are they will lose their sponsors. In sports, sponsorship has often been mistaken with patronage. Patronage will mostly disappear, at least for a few years, post crisis. I see big-time sports leagues suffering from this, and new leagues emerging with innovative sponsorship ideas. 

2 - Non exclusive rights will be the new normal

Remember when media juggernauts used to compete in tenders to get exclusivity—and sometimes only getting part of it—and were willing to spend billions for it? I believe non exclusive rights will become the new normal. With most leagues and rights holders trying to go DTC, digital giants growing more cautious when investing in rights (yes, I'm talking about you Facebook and YouTube), and pay-TV big players already weakened by the previous bidding wars, rights will be sold to many different stakeholders instead of a selected few. This way, leagues will be able to operate their DCT, Pay TV and OTT platforms will have some rights, digital giants will profit as well, leagues will get better reach and we will even see the resurgence of...

3 - Free to air will make a strong come back

Yes, you read that correctly. While most may think linear free to air died 10 years ago, it still has unparalleled reach to most homes. Many leagues were deeply wounded by a move to Pay TV. As most rights will lose the exclusivity flavor, I can see leagues trying to get free to air slots back. For some, linear free to air might not be an option but bold rights holders might find a way to viewers via Facebook or YouTube. Facebook today is what free to air terrestrial TV was in the 90's, totally uncool but everyone has it.

4 - (True) Remote Production will take over

Over the past 5 years, broadcasters have transitioned to a remote production model with a view to cutting costs by sending smaller crews on site, saving money on accommodation & travel expenses, and capitalizing on their huge production facility investment at their HQ. The crisis is pointing out a huge flaw: this approach only makes sense when everyone can flock to HQ. True remote production with cloud-based software accessible from standard phones and laptops, from everywhere, will be the true game changer. These tools provide a lot more freedom to the creative teams, allowing them to do more on site, more from home, without being tethered to the company HQ. Major media will also have access to the best talents, no matter where they are in the world.

5 - Host broadcasting agencies will take on most production duties from broadcasters, including content creation.

Tenders are now a matter of life and death for many broadcasting companies and we are seeing more and more rights changing hands at each cycle, making it very hard to invest substantially in production and editorial. Why spend resources building an infrastructure, editorial team and production staff when you can lose the rights after a few years. For that reason, and because of the DTC initiatives from rights holders, and less exclusivity in the rights (multiple companies owning some rights) I believe host broadcasting companies will carry an even bigger burden, handling most of the production for every player, and maybe even a big part of the editorial. I know how provocative this may sound to many fellow journalists and reporters but hear me out: this will allow creative and editorial people to develop more ambitious projects with more money and potentially for multiple markets.

6 - Esport will eat second-tier sports’ market share

The COVID-19 crisis was the break FIFA20, NBA2K and others competitive video games needed to really go mainstream. Regular sports fans discovered that it is not much different to cheer for your favorite teams in real life or in a virtual gaming environment. It simply is good content, easy to follow, easy to produce at a very low cost. Live sports broadcasters and OTT platforms will consider this as a much better investment than most second-tier sports. It might be better to broadcast a game of FIFA20 rather than a real life volleyball match (no offence, volleyball, I like you very much).

7 – Even more money will pour into unscripted sports formats

"The Last Dance" will be released this Sunday. It probably is one of the most anticipated sports documentaries ever and it will cover events that happened 22 years ago. Documentaries have been the go-to players of sports TV for quite some time (NYT wrote this article in 2015 but it will reach the next level post crisis. Documentaries don't have expiration dates, they can be watched and rewatched for years, they are telling the story of the sport better than any live editorial can. It can turn casual supporters into hardcore fans. It is also way cheaper than live sports or scripted formats. 

8 - AR/VR and other techs will be the big losers

In 20+ years in this industry, I've seen my share of tech trends. VR has been touted as the future of broadcasting for years now, and some, including the NBA, have spent millions trying to produce live content in VR while only 0.01% of sports fans have the actual gear to watch it. I might be wrong, but I don't see it becoming big in the near future. It will be big in gaming maybe, in porn for sure, not in sports. With an almost insurmountable financial whirlwind sweeping the sport world, investments will be made more wisely. Tech with immediate impact, the Intel True View for example, will survive while others simply disappear.

9 - Consolidation among sports league will be triggered

The need for a world tour in golf is something the industry has been talking about for more than 30 years now. The Premier Golf League might not happen but the PGA Tour will use the crisis to take over its European counterpart and it will happen quickly. The PGA Tour of Australasia, Asian Tour and others would benefit from being regrouped under the same umbrella, as well. We might see other mergers and consolidations happen, NBA and Euroleague? UCL becoming a semi-closed league in a new joint venture with the biggest football clubs in Europe?

10 - The future is bright

Overall, sport will be a big winner post crisis. We miss it so much that it actually increases the value of pro sports for the years to come. Leagues will be forced to undertake the changes they kept postponing, schedules will be revised, enemies will start working together, weak leagues and sports will die and be reborn under better leadership. Content will add more value than ever to all sports properties.

Take a deep breath, we are about to enter a new sports world, and a better one.

Sébastien AUDOUX