Boiling Frogs - a view on the irrelevant climate change debate

By Brian V. Iversen, Founder and Managing Partner of Cimbria Capital

Most of us are familiar with the boiling frog story, an anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out. But if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is oftentimes used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly. That’s my reason for including it here as well.

Certain elements of human life are usually and naturally always in the forefront of our minds… breakfast, lunch, and dinner, our work-life, family, friends, relationships, and paying the bills. Other elements of life are more distant and only on occasion noteworthy to us; the road we drive on, the buildings we work and live in, our health, and the resources we use. But sometimes those items normally more distant become relevant, and when they do – they usually become highly relevant. As examples, if abrupt change happens to our food or water supply or to our health, significant problems arise with a moment’s notice.

After any prolonged period of time without being reminded about the importance of those elements in our everyday lives, we become complacent. And that is the reason why we, as a society, have forgotten about and neglected the upkeep of vital infrastructure – roads, bridges, electricity and water supply - and this is also the reason why climate change has become an unwieldy debate. Even if we can agree that failing infrastructure is highly worrisome, and even if global warming is agreed to be a problem, most of us are not touched immediately and obviously by these issues. So other areas and parts of life will demand our focus and priority rather than finding ways to safeguard the backbone and long-term viability of our society. Even when reminders are readily available to us - widespread forest fires, floods, droughts, deteriorating infrastructure, and global health threats - we only take full notice and react if we perceive these as directly relevant and impactful to our everyday lives. 

The climate debate and the problems deemed to arise from Climate Change have become an interesting datapoint in humanity’s unwillingness to focus on certain foundational needs and requirements underpinning the stability of the society from which we currently benefit. To make the conversation a little simpler, I propose to view every single element of the climate debate as an opportunity to better our society via technological improvement related to resource efficiency and resiliency - food, water, and energy - and creation of resilient, sustainable, and improved lifestyles for all of us. Let us therefore allow the Climate Change challenge and its elements to become a trigger for prosperity, equality, and transformational positive change rather than yet another reason for polarization and partisanship. 

"Allow the Climate Change challenge to become a trigger for prosperity, equality, and transformational positive change."

Rather than getting caught up in the Climate Change debate – the actual arguments and disputes and derived politicization of global warming - I respectfully propose that it would be easier and far more productive to avoid the debate itself. From a practical standpoint, most answers to the societal issues assumed to stem from Climate Change relate to innovation of resource efficiencies and progress dearly needed for humanity whether or not global warming exists. We are, as a global society, required to better our ways related to production of all goods and services, since we need to be more efficient and resilient to safeguard our current lifestyles, to make room for an ever growing global population, as well as to improve human life throughout the world.

The back and forth arguments referred to as the climate debate – the longwinded arguments between view points and stakeholders - is getting in the way of positive change since it provides the incumbent industry participants (and their executives and lobbyists) an ability to delay and keep existing industry procedures ‘as is’. Let’s keep in mind that incumbents, and those under cease due to industry disruption triggered by new science, knowledge and technology, have at every turn in history argued that ‘new ways’ were unneeded or short-term fads. - A reasonable and understandable approach by any individual, business, or industry who stands to lose from an approaching change, but also an approach which has eventually and entirely - in every single instance throughout history - failed. Transformation via both evolution and revolution is unavoidable, and humanity has always and will always seek to improve its scientific and technical abilities in an effort to reach new frontiers. That said, I am in no position to refer to the climate debate as either childish or entirely irrelevant for those who wish to engage. But I consider it a sideline-event, and I am personally avoiding it. Since change and disruption are underway whether I like it or not, and I therefore only worry about being left behind; I aim to spend my professional time ensuring my own ‘landing’ on the right side of the equation. - The side that keeps my teams - Cimbria Capital and Cimbria Consulting – and I relevant and in a position of prosperity in both the immediate and in the long term. Disruption of industries has been commonplace throughout human history, and winners and losers have always been determined by willingness and unwillingness to change. There is nothing new here. 

As you may have heard me state before, the world itself, however, is still new. As a global society, we are in our adolescence and we still have much to learn. Change and progress are the only consistent elements in human history. The world is currently transitioning into a chapter of history where we are forced to, but luckily also able to, become more resilient and efficient. - A historic wealth transfer is unquestionably underway, away from those who are unwilling and unable to embrace change, to those who are. The proverbial water in the pot may, for some, only seem lukewarm, but I believe it has started to boil, and I am jumping out.