Boeing vs Airbus vs X

?? ??The Economist writes that Boeing may have hoped that by allocating $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration fund, it would strengthen its relationship with the future President of the United States. However, on February 20, he delivered a verdict: "Not satisfied." His discontent is linked to a contract the American aerospace giant signed during his first term for replacing two aircraft that serve as Air Force One. The new planes, which were supposed to arrive by Trump's second term, cannot be delivered during his current tenure in the White House due to supply chain challenges, required modifications, and a shortage of workers with the necessary clearances. Trump stated that he is considering purchasing used aircraft.

?? The only consolation for Boeing was that the president confirmed he "will not consider Airbus." This is a rare victory for the American aircraft manufacturer over its European competitor, which has surged ahead in recent years in the production and delivery of passenger planes - the core business of both companies. Nonetheless, Airbus has not fully capitalized on Boeing's troubles. This could leave the duopoly open to a new entrant. The latest annual results of the aircraft manufacturers confirmed Airbus's superiority: revenue was €69 billion ($72 billion), and operating profit was €5.4 billion last year compared to Boeing's revenue of $66 billion and a loss of $11 billion. In 2024, Airbus delivered 766 planes, while Boeing delivered only 348. The growing disparity between the two companies is largely the result of Boeing's failures in commercial aircraft production and a nightmarish series of flight problems.

?? Even if Boeing can restore its reputation and ramp up production, Airbus will maintain leadership in the narrow-body aircraft segment for some time. The American company hopes to increase production rates of the 737 Max to around 38 planes per month by the end of this year. Airbus is already producing about 50 planes per month for the competing A320 family and hopes to increase this to 75 by 2027.

?? There's a problem, though—both companies are struggling with supply chains they are trying to restore. And Airbus's leadership in narrow-body aircraft production does not extend to wide-body aircraft. In 2024, Boeing delivered 83 wide-body planes, only six fewer than Airbus. The A220, a smaller passenger plane, remains unprofitable, and A320 production in 2024 barely grew. Both companies may also be distracted by difficulties in other divisions. Boeing's defense and space unit has been losing money for three years. Airbus's space business last year incurred expenses of €1.3 billion due to issues in its satellite production division.

?? With the combined order volume of the duopoly already reaching 14,000, potential competitors are eager to make their move. One of them is the Chinese state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Its narrow-body aircraft, the C919, won't pose a significant threat for some time—only 30 deliveries are scheduled for 2025—but it could eventually capture market share in China and other countries. Rumors are growing louder that the Brazilian manufacturer of small regional aircraft, Embraer, is considering challenging the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. But even if that happens, it will be some time before Trump can choose a new version of an aircraft elsewhere.