Blueprints for tomorrow

If we speculate more about everything, reality will become more malleable

Blending storytelling with creative thinking: the what-if questions that trigger debates about the kinds of future we might want.

I'm not certain whether the expression "Speculative Design" was first coined by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby in their book "Speculative Everything", but it's likely that their work, published by The MIT Press a decade ago, played a significant role in popularising it. Today we observe a growing prevalence of terms like "speculative design" and "design fiction", particularly in discussions concerning climate change, systems of systems or recursive wicked problems, where a local push can unwillingly unleash a remote pull through feedback loops. In these issues, cause and effect are intricately entwined, rather than following a linear progression, and understanding one aspect inexorably unveils another layer of complexity.

Despite the frequent mentions, and because of the link with the realm of wicked problems and future thinking, there appears to be a veil surrounding speculative design. I've a sense that there's much to unpack, yet clear-cut information, especially regarding methods and case studies, seems sparse. It feels as though the essence of speculative design is awaiting explanation, with a few courses or educational resources in the open.

Speculative design is like a sandbox for designers to play around with what could be, instead of just fixing what's broken or sticking with the status quo.

So let’s demystify it to uncover how this forward-thinking approach can be harnessed effectively in the realm of complex problem-solving and innovation.

When you mix speculative design with service design, you’ve got yourself a powerful toolbox. Service design is about orchestrating the harmony between humans, organisational infrastructure and all the nuts and bolts that make a service tick. Speculative design, on the other hand, is like a sandbox for designers to play around with what could be, instead of just fixing what's broken or sticking with the status quo. It’s like taking a trip to alternate future worlds or flipping the script on how we see things. It’s about thinking outside the box using stories, mock-ups, prototypes or head-turning models to get people talking, mulling over and even heatedly debating about social, cultural, ethical and tech issues.

Where fiction meets theatre: the synergy of speculative and service design.

Speculative design can add some vitality to service design in several ways. Let's unpack some of them.

Dreaming up tomorrow

By painting pictures of the future, speculative design lets service designers peek into the art of the possible and get a feel for what customers might be hankering after down the road.

Busting myths and breaking moulds

Speculative design is that nudge asking, “Hey, what if?”. It gets service designers to kick some tires and challenge the old-school ways of thinking, which can unlock some doors to innovation that we didn’t even know were there.

Taking the high road

When service design puts on its speculative glasses, it takes an intentional, hard look at the ethics and social side of things. This can pave the way for services that wear their hearts on their sleeves and care about the world, which can be a magnet for trust.

Give it a whirl before you buy

With speculative design, service designers can whip up rough-around-the-edges versions of services that might not even be possible yet. This lets people get hands-on and throw in their two cents, which with some luck can be like turning raw ideas into diamonds.

Get the chatter going

Speculative design is like an open-mic for stakeholders and users to gab about what’s next in the world of services, for sprinkling different viewpoints and insights into the mix.

A heads-up or a wake-up call

Sometimes speculative design is that tap on the shoulder or the alarm bell about how today’s choices can boomerang back tomorrow. This nugget of wisdom can steer the ship towards choices that are more about the long game and keeping it real.

Future-proofing

By playing out different hands, even the wild cards, speculative design helps craft services that can stay on their feet when things got shaken up.

Bridging concepts and reality

But let's wrap it being pragmatic. How can we develop conceptual artefacts which are functional and credible enough to show scenarios or technologies that are unavailable today?

In the speculative design practice, we can single out at least eight ingredients for fabricating substantive models that facilitate dialogue and contemplation on potential future developments.

1. Investigation and ideation

Initiate by conducting an exhaustive analysis of nascent technologies, scientific advancements and emergent trends. Select a technology that has potential future significance and ideate applications or services that could incorporate it.

2. Identification of objective and audience

Ascertain the objective of the representation – is the intention educational or thought-provoking? Pinpoint the target demographic, as this will have an influence on the design and exposition of the model.

3. Schematics and visualisation

Create schematic representations and develop sequential visualisations to conjecture how the technology may integrate into specific use cases. This is instrumental in comprehending the user interaction and experience with the technology.

4. Prototyping

Not surprising, but still important: fabricate a rudimentary prototype employing contemporary materials and technologies. This prototype needs not perform the functions of the future technology, but should represent them in some capacity.

5. Emulation via "controlled illusion"

To approximate the functionality of future technologies, employ a controlled illusion technique, such as the "Wizard of Oz" methodology. This entails creating the impression that the model is functioning independently, whereas, in reality, it is being manually manipulated behind the scenes.

6. Integration of feedback and iterative refinement

Present the prototype to a select audience to gain feedback. Observe users interactions and assimilate their insights. Leverage feedback for iterative refinement of the prototype.

7. Narrative for context

Complement your model with a comprehensive narrative or storyline that outlines the context within which this future technology operates. This enables your audience to immerse themselves in the speculative future being presented.

8. Exhibition and facilitated discourse

Deploy a tangible model in conversations, workshops, exhibitions or presentations, to encourage debate regarding the technology, its conceivable impact and the ethical considerations that accompany it.

The goal is not to create an exact functioning version of future technologies, but to provide a material or tactile representation that aids in the exploration and discussion of future possibilities.

So, what are possible scenarios for the application of speculative design in service design projects?

You can really imagine infinite possibilities and applications, but let's focus on two simple examples that we might encounter in two areas of work which are close to my heart: urban and education settings.

Future-forward urban mobility

Think about a meticulously crafted urban model, a microcosm of an eco-conscious city pulsating with sustainability. In this model, autonomous electric vehicles cruise the streets, seamlessly integrated into the city's lifeblood. The cityscape boasts state-of-the-art recreation and educational facilities, whispering woods and parks, clean energy production facilities and public spaces emerging from co-creation and participatory policy design. This captivating model serves as a conversation starter for stakeholders, urban planners and citizens, as they delve into the intricate relationships between autonomous mobility services, the city's green heartbeat and its imagination infrastructures.

Learning beyond boundaries?

Imagine a sleek VR headset design, paired with vivid storyboards or immersive animations that transport you to the classroom of tomorrow. This concept leaps beyond walls, as it demonstrates education in a boundless virtual domain. With this imaginative toolkit, educators, learners and decision-makers are invited to examine the potential and hurdles of virtualised learning landscapes, focusing on equitable access, content excellence and the human connection within digital spaces.

Speculative design could be like the leap of service design for blending innovation and conscious evolution. It's about flexing the brain muscles in creative, critical and reflective ways to make sure the services are efficient and tuned into the bigger picture of social, cultural and ethical wavelengths.

Speaking of futures, it would be fascinating to further investigate the relationships between speculation and simulation in design. For instance, how digital twins and data-led computational predictions of future scenarios can coexist with the speculative design practice of imagination infrastructuring in urban settings?

For more resources on Speculative Design, you can check out Near Future Laboratory and the School of Critical Design .

Full Disclosure: I design to facilitate AI and human collaboration. This article, based on my personal ideas and original content, was experimentally edited and proof read with AI tools.