Is a blue wave on the horizon for 2024 and beyond?

Demographic change is one of the biggest headlines coming out of the 2022 midterm elections in the United States. Americans chose a diverse groups of candidates to represent them, which reflects the changing face of the nation. Outside of the great diversity in terms of race, gender, and LGBTQ+ elected to office, the electorate also selected one of the most age-diverse group of representatives ever.

Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), at 89, was reelected by Iowans to his eighth term and will remain the second oldest member of the Senate and oldest person elected to that office for the next session of Congress. Floridians, on the other hand, elected 25-year-old Maxwell Frost (D-FL) to the House of Representatives; he's is the first member of Generation Z to enter the legislative body.

The interplay of age and generation, as well as other demographics contributed to the results and will likely do so in major way for the foreseeable future. People older than 45 (Gen X, boomers, and Silent Generation) were more likely to vote for Republicans, while those under 45 (millennials and Gen Z) tended to back Democrats.

There's nothing new here in terms of the desires of younger people to challenge the status quo, or the gradual slip into conservatism as people get older. Winston Churchill, the great UK Prime Minister, even mused about this progression when he said, "If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain."

What makes younger voters different is that that they are the most-diverse and best-educated generation with the greatest access to information in the history of the world. More importantly, they are showing-up at the polls, which is a break from tradition. Historically, younger voters don't vote in large numbers, which undercuts their ability to make real change.

During this cycle, 27 percent of eligible 18-29 year olds went to the polls, according to the CIRCLE - The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University ; this number was even higher in swing states. If they hadn't shown-up, the outcome would've likely been much different, and the "red wave" that many had predicted would've come true.

While younger voters are finding their voice and flexing their political power, the demographic fortunes of older generations are beginning to diminish. All too often we are blinded by the statistic that 10,000 people turn 65 each day, but we rarely discuss their death rate. According to a 2015 report from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies at 美国哈佛大学 , "Today, there are about?2.6 million [boomer]?deaths every year, but this number will rise to over 4 million a year by 2050." By 2024, the oldest boomers will be 79 and the size of this generation will have contracted significantly.

Up until 2019, boomers were the largest and most dominant generation in the history of the United States. According to the U.S. Census Bureau , they are now the second-largest generation, comprised of 69.6 million people, and this number will dwindle to 61 million by 2030. Millennials will remain the dominant generation in terms of size for the foreseeable future.

Gen Z are adding just over 10,000 eligible voters each day, and a majority of them are progressive

On the other end of the age-spectrum, Gen Z are adding just over 10,000 eligible voters each day, and many of them are progressive. This could have the greatest implications for a state, like Florida, that already has a very old population and is most likely to see the greatest contraction in the total number of older voters in the coming years. It's entirely possible that Florida could turn purple, or even blue in 2024 and beyond.

For Democrats, leaning into progressive and inclusive issues will keep younger voters engaged. Showing diversity is an essential element of any political strategy today, but only if it is authentic; performative politics do not pass the litmus test for younger voters.

For Republicans, these changes in the American electorate could foretell a long period of being in the minority of U.S. politics.

For more information about how demographic change is affecting life in the United States and around the world, please visit The Super Age or buy a copy of The Super Age: Decoding our Demographic Destiny today.