Blue Skies - Eritrean airspace opens

The dawn of a new era

For friends and well-wishers of aviation in Africa, a welcome but surprise political development surfaced, early July. The locked horns between two North Eastern African states for nearly 20 years has now, finally eased off to the color of blue skies over the Horn of Africa. Aviation links between Ethiopia and Eritrea that had been in cold freeze since 1998 sparked off by a border dispute finally thawed. A political conflict that culminated in a total airspace “blackout” with no flights being handled or traffic exchanged between these two warring States spanning an entire generation of aviation successes elsewhere in the world.

Back to basics- the ICAO Convention

It never ceases to amaze me to think of the foresight that our forefathers in aviation had when they signed off on the ICAO Convention in Chicago, nearly 70 years ago. Given that a large portion of international ICAO airspace over the Red Sea has been designated to Eritrea, we will start off looking at some of the benefits and opportunities that international air transport brings in this context. We will then finish off by evaluating if and how “its abuse can become a threat to the general security” as the preamble to the Convention warns.

Civil Aviation creates and preserves friendships

The surprising political move came as Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed unexpectedly announced on 5 June 2018 that it fully accepts the terms of the peace Algiers Agreement (2000). Ethiopia also announced that it would accept the outcome of the 2002 UN-backed Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) ruling which awarded disputed territories including the town of Badme to Eritrea. With that political parity re-established, Ethiopian Airlines launched flight ET0312 departing Bole International Airport to Asmara- reconnecting Eritrea and Ethiopia after a 20-year military standoff.

The price of political conflict

It is estimated that the conflict claimed in excess of 70,000 war casualties from both sides. The fighting led to massive internal displacement in both countries as civilians fled the war zone. Ethiopia expelled 77,000 Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin it deemed a security risk, thus compounding Eritrea's refugee problem. On the Eritrean side, around 7,500 Ethiopians living in Eritrea were interned, and thousands of others were deported. Meanwhile, neighboring Djibouti also imposed an international embargo against an already isolated Eritrea. For the last decade, the latter was only approachable from the north and from Sudan in the west.

Shape the Future

Eritrea’s name derives from the ancient Greek appellation "Erythra Thalassa" meaning Red Sea, which is the large water expanse bordering the northern portions of the country. The political importance of this narrow strip of land cannot be emphasized more. Besides land-locking Ethiopia, its more influential and economically advanced southern neighbor, Eritrea controls a vital piece of seaway across the Red Sea as it does in the air with a large swath of ‘high seas’ international ICAO delegated airspace that abuts Saudi Arabia to the north, Yemen & Djibouti to the east and Sudan to the west. It is therefore vital that Eritrea plans and works through both Air and Sea opportunities wisely, diligently and autonomously.

First Moves

Politically and economically, the first task on hand is to extricate itself from the morass of isolation, economic sanctions and embargoes imposed – fairly or otherwise on its peoples over the last two decades. The 2009 UN Security Council imposed sanctions on the country, which are still in force. Rightly so and end-July, a rapprochement through the "Eritrea-Somalia Joint Declaration on Brotherly Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation" has led to an ease off of sanctions. At best, it will pave the way for a less polarized and more pragmatic union of Horn of African States that could on the face of it attract foreign investors. Eritrea will also need to stand up its own sustainable transportation and aviation economic and financing structure with sound & astute political support from its leadership. And this is where Eritrea will need to make some hard political choices and take a long & close look at the cost of shedding its political sanctions for the support it receives from Somalia and Ethiopia and on a tertiary basis from the sheikh princes of the middle east (the UAE already has a military base is Assab and a 2nd in Bernera, Somalia).

Eritrea will need to carefully manage the political fallout from the peace deal with Ethiopia. Ethiopia is currently cash-strapped in an imbalanced foreign exchange situation and will surely be looking to rebuild links into Eritrea, to create a second export route and a sea-faced oil pipeline. And perhaps in doing so, get a better cost advantages when it comes to moving imports or their goods through the ports- mainly Massawa. So there is a benefit for longer-term trade but opportunities that will need to be prudently leveraged.

Airspace Blackout

During these long years of silent airwaves, all landing or takeoffs remained off controller flight strips. Overflights for Eritrean and Ethiopian flag airlines as well as any other overflights in a region that has been witnessing growth rates well above 8% remained off bounds. With the peace accord, Ethiopian and Eritrean Civil Aviation officials Wossenyeleh Hunegnaw and Paulos Kassaye opened up the aviation dialog for the first time in 20 years.

Meanwhile, the archaic and dysfunctional Airway and route structure over Eritrea that was designed for trade routes of the 1960’s connecting Europe and Italy with Djibouti and Somalia languished. The route flows afforded by the 5 published airways remained largely irrelevant & unusable to serve the needs of the burgeoning Middle Eastern carriers targeting South & Central Africa and crossing Sudan to head over eastern Africa and beyond. When the war broke out it, Ethiopian Airlines was forced to reroute via Sudan and Djibouti adding anywhere of 10 minutes and more of flight time and fuel costs.

Opportunities by Air

There are both immediate and longer-term sustainable aviation opportunities that must be seized by Eritrea. In the short-term, of the five air routes that have remained closed for the last twenty years, the most ‘usable’ of them, UG650 (connecting with UM308 over Addis) is now open for business. This route connects the core flows along the Jeddah – Asmara – Addis Ababa axis for traffic plying the middle-east to central and south African destinations and v.v.. The remaining routes will require some internal coordination work to extend them into usable international trans-border routes between bordering states – Khartoum (for the UB526 extension) and Addis (UR780 and UR993 extensions).

Short Term Opportunities

Larger short-term opportunities can be gained by Eritrea to position and publish new routes that align with current traffic flowing diagonally across – mainly from the Middle eastern carriers across the Horn of Africa. Extensive benefit and modeling studies were previously conducted (pioneered by this writer) under a multi-disciplinary (Airspace planning, Procedures, AIM) approach supported by all stakeholders (Airlines, ICAO, IATA, Air Navigation Services etc.) in 2011 and under the auspices of ICAO. So rather than starting from scratch, a large body of work done in a more rationalized airspace plan structure for Eritrea is available and continues to remain relevant today. Which would lead on to fast-tracking and providing a sound baseline to build on these proposed airspace redesign solutions to be leveraged in short order.

Longer Term Opportunities

In the longer term, undoubtedly, the bigger challenge faced by Eritrea would be in standing up a national airspace and land security plan to protect its economic and political autonomy. Three drone bases (Kismayo and Baledogle in Somalia and Camp Le Monnier in Djibouti) are too close for its political security or comfort. The national plan will also call for sustainable and functional State Safety Oversight and Management plan. It will require skilled professionals and pragmatic administrators to determine, train and manage a sound state safety plan and ensure highest levels of quality oversight certification and corrective action. Eritrea would also do well to break away from the traditional business model of dependence on aviation investment packages with ‘strings attached’ and exert its own choices for aviation Communications, Navigation & Surveillance (CNS) investment platforms for Air Traffic Management based on ICAO Aviation System Block Upgrade (ASBU) guidance. To do so, it would need to rethink and stand-up a sustainable, balanced financing scheme and a renewed charges model both from Airport charges as also from Overflight revenues. For example, the current landing charge on a 590,000 lb - B777-200 aircraft is billed at $1595. The overflight revenues from the many El Al Boeing 747-400 & B767's that ply this airspace daily yields a measly USD$ 200!! ... well short of international averages.

Financing Air Navigation Modernization

So Eritrea stands to also find for new and pragmatic ways of financing these modernization plans from revising its aviation revenue structure based on ICAO’s policies on charges for airports & air navigation services (Doc. 9082) as also prevalent international ANS ‘best practices’. In rationalizing its airspace design and structure Eritrea would also do well to incentivize and promote new airline overflight and landing entrants through its airspace with clear benefits from fuel and time savings from the shorter routes, safety and service levels that would need to be stood up.

 This would result in large cost savings on jet fuel for many airline operators as there will no longer need to avoid Eritrean airspace en route to Ethiopia and other destinations. There is no doubt that Asmara airport will see increased activity, but focus should remain on developing the airspace, airports, ANS and Regulatory infrastructure. Pragmatic technical administration should promote aviation and ease the rules for doing business in developing airport and the ANS infrastructure.

Opportunities By Land & Sea

With the political ‘thaw’, Eritrea stands to benefit hugely from land trade benefits from its landlocked southern neighbor Ethiopia with its larger population and also as among Africa’s fastest growing economies. Being landlocked and currently dependent on Djibouti for seaport access, Eritrea’s strategically placed port of Massawa provides a new opportunity to provide Ethiopia with much needed secondary access to the sea. The Port will also serve Eritrea to expose its international exports of minerals mined just a short distance from the shore. With about 1,000km of the Red Sea coastline, Eritrea has the additional potential for robust tourism activity in the coming years.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a choke-point between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East and is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. Located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, it connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab el-Mandeb.

An estimated 4.8 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this vital waterway in 2016 toward Europe, the United States, and Asia, an increase of 45% from 2011. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. The impact from a closure of the Bab el-Mandeb would be unimaginable – blocking tankers originating in the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline.

US Move To Sideline China

According to an Africa News post, “the surprise peace opening between Ethiopia and Eritrea followed the visit to East Africa by former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March. During his trip, Tillerson made some provocative statements teasing and questioning China’s presence in Africa. That was only three weeks before Abiy Ahmed’s accession to power on April 2.

There then followed, according to Ethiopian sources, low-key visits by US State Department officials to Addis Ababa and the Eritrean capital, Asmara. The US contact with Asmara was particularly remarkable because for years Washington has been sanctioning and isolating Eritrea over alleged human rights abuses under its longtime leader Afwerki”.

Africa News Post adds “Eritrea’s tiny economy has largely subsisted in recent years under the patronage of the Gulf Arab states. As well as Washington’s bidding, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. A week after the peace deal was sealed in mid-July, the two leaders were afforded a congratulations ceremony in the UAE during which they were presented with ornate gold medallions by the Emirates Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed”.

The sheikhdom also announced a $3 billion support package, made up of a $1 billion deposit in Ethiopia's central bank and a pledge of $2 billion in investments. To Ethiopia's relief, the deposit (plus an offer from Saudi Arabia of a year's supply of fuel with payment delayed for 12 months) pulled them out of a crisis with their foreign exchange that had stalled the economy.

Chinese Economic backing or IMF Political bullying?

There is also simmering anger with the accidental death of engineer Bekele, the leader and inspiration for the $4 billion blue-Nile Renaissance dam project in the northwestern region of Ethiopia near the border with Sudan. Bekele may have been a sacrificial victim in order to assist the US geopolitical power play. Undoubtedly, the project has stalled. If and when it goes ahead, the financing arrangement points to the ‘writing on the wall’-  for the IMF to step in. This is a marked change from previous government independent financing arrangements. Premier Ahmed’s perceived favor of sectarian interests under the guise of “reforms” may be over-stretching towards the Oromo tribe political numbers in disregard to the large Christian-Muslim composition of Ethiopia. There are also fears that the country could be incited into religious conflict.

Ahmed has also cosied up to Christine Lagarde, the head of the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ethiopia has managed well in the past to keep the IMF and Western finance capital at bay in Ethiopia’s development. Projects like the Grand Renaissance Dam have been either self-financed or have relied on China for investment.

New Geopolitical Configuration - Shapes the Future

Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed Ali appears to be moving away from its strategic partnership with China to align with the US and its Arab regional allies, Egypt and the Gulf oil sheikhdoms. Abiy’s Muslim heritage is believed to make him favorable to embrace the US-Arab client regimes. The western-led orchestration against China, or as Washington would argue “great power competition” is proceeding at alarming pace, albeit without national consensus. The international press naturally hail these “reforms” under the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s energy for change. But is this unleashing dangerous political tensions within Ethiopia?.

The apparent US-led rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea is certainly indicative to the intended ouster of China’s foothold on the continent via the Djibouti port, where China last year opened up its first overseas military base. This shifting geopolitical rearrangement also gives the US and the Gulf Arab states greater dominion over the vital Red Sea choke-point in global trade, for seaborne oil and controlling the skies above it. That may well account for the US-backed Saudi war to control Yemen, which lies opposite to Eritrea across the Red Sea on the Arabian Peninsula and the take-over of the island of Socrata (think the Diego Garcia equivalent in the Arabian Sea).

To compound the toxic power mix, Addis Ababa being a strategically important region of the African nation – China had financed a $200 million grant to establish the African Union’s headquarters there, built in 2012. An increased influence of Washington in Ethiopia will lead to sharp repercussions across the continent.

Summing Up

To sum up, Ethiopia appears to be undergoing a deep geopolitical realignment. However, the realignment seems to also be sucking in and with it, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan into the ‘black hole’ of geo-political gains of the duplicity and machinations of the oil sheikhdom of the Arab Emirates & other super powers. The criticality of both the air corridors and sea lanes over the international ‘high seas’ of Eritrea leads to this new geopolitical re-configuration that drives the futures and indeed the destinies of the Horn of Africa States.

The Chicago Convention did warn against “its abuse (that) can become a threat to the general security”. There is always the ‘sting’ in plans to fund infrastructure and development partnerships, whether it is from China, or the western led IMF alliances (and/or the oil sheikhdom of the UAE). Typically, once the projects are built by a funded mix of concessionary exports of raw materials, ground royalties and by billions of dollars in loans, defaults quickly result. Djibouti is already at 85% of its debt-service limits under the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. Running the risk of not being able to repay gives these benefactors leverage to secure wider geopolitical gains and the governments end up ceding and compromising a large military and geo-political control footprint over their small, yet crucial space in the Horn of Africa.

“A man who pays his bills on time is soon forgotten.”

-Oscar Wilde